Predicting Survival for Veno-Arterial ECMO Using Conditional Inference Trees-A Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND Despite increasing use and understanding of the process, veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) therapy is still associated with considerable mortality. Personalized and quick survival predictions using machine learning methods can assist in clinical decision making before ECMO insertion. METHODS This is a multicenter study to develop and validate an easy-to-use prognostic model to predict in-hospital mortality of VA-ECMO therapy, using unbiased recursive partitioning with conditional inference trees. We compared two sets with different numbers of variables (small and comprehensive), all of which were available just before ECMO initiation. The area under the curve (AUC), the cross-validated Brier score, and the error rate were applied to assess model performance. Data were collected retrospectively between 2007 and 2019. RESULTS 837 patients were eligible for this study; 679 patients in the derivation cohort (median (IQR) age 60 (49 to 69) years; 187 (28%) female patients) and a total of 158 patients in two external validation cohorts (median (IQR) age 57 (49 to 65) and 70 (63 to 76) years). For the small data set, the model showed a cross-validated error rate of 35.79% and an AUC of 0.70 (95% confidence interval from 0.66 to 0.74). In the comprehensive data set, the error rate was the same with a value of 35.35%, with an AUC of 0.71 (95% confidence interval from 0.67 to 0.75). The mean Brier scores of the two models were 0.210 (small data set) and 0.211 (comprehensive data set). External validation showed an error rate of 43% and AUC of 0.60 (95% confidence interval from 0.52 to 0.69) using the small tree and an error rate of 35% with an AUC of 0.63 (95% confidence interval from 0.54 to 0.72) using the comprehensive tree. There were large differences between the two validation sets. CONCLUSIONS Conditional inference trees are able to augment prognostic clinical decision making for patients undergoing ECMO treatment. They may provide a degree of accuracy in mortality prediction and prognostic stratification using readily available variables

Transdiagnostic inflexible learning dynamics explain deficits in depression and schizophrenia

Deficits in reward learning are core symptoms across many mental disorders. Recent work suggests that such learning impairments arise by a diminished ability to use reward history to guide behaviour, but the neuro-computational mechanisms through which these impairments emerge remain unclear. Moreover, limited work has taken a transdiagnostic approach to investigate whether the psychological and neural mechanisms that give rise to learning deficits are shared across forms of psychopathology. To provide insight into this issue, we explored probabilistic reward learning in patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder (n = 33) or schizophrenia (n = 24) and 33 matched healthy controls by combining computational modelling and single-trial EEG regression. In our task, participants had to integrate the reward history of a stimulus to decide whether it is worthwhile to gamble on it. Adaptive learning in this task is achieved through dynamic learning rates that are maximal on the first encounters with a given stimulus and decay with increasing stimulus repetitions. Hence, over the course of learning, choice preferences would ideally stabilize and be less susceptible to misleading information. We show evidence of reduced learning dynamics, whereby both patient groups demonstrated hypersensitive learning (i.e. less decaying learning rates), rendering their choices more susceptible to misleading feedback. Moreover, there was a schizophrenia-specific approach bias and a depression-specific heightened sensitivity to disconfirmational feedback (factual losses and counterfactual wins). The inflexible learning in both patient groups was accompanied by altered neural processing, including no tracking of expected values in either patient group. Taken together, our results thus provide evidence that reduced trial-by-trial learning dynamics reflect a convergent deficit across depression and schizophrenia. Moreover, we identified disorder distinct learning deficits