Heatwave Definition and Impact on Cardiovascular Health: A Systematic Review

Objectives: We aimed to analyze recent literature on heat effects on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, focusing on the adopted heat definitions and their eventual impact on the results of the analysis.Methods: The search was performed on PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Scopus databases: 54 articles, published between January 2018 and September 2022, were selected as relevant.Results: In total, 21 different combinations of criteria were found for defining heat, 12 of which were based on air temperature, while the others combined it with other meteorological factors. By a simulation study, we showed how such complex indices could result in different values at reference conditions depending on temperature. Heat thresholds, mostly set using percentile or absolute values of the index, were applied to compare the risk of a cardiovascular health event in heat days with the respective risk in non-heat days. The larger threshold's deviation from the mean annual temperature, as well as higher temperature thresholds within the same study location, led to stronger negative effects.Conclusion: To better analyze trends in the characteristics of heatwaves, and their impact on cardiovascular health, an international harmonization effort to define a common standard is recommendable

Detection of patients with COVID-19 by the emergency medical services in Lombardy through an operator-based interview and machine learning models

BackgroundThe regional emergency medical service (EMS) in Lombardy (Italy) developed clinical algorithms based on operator-based interviews to detect patients with COVID-19 and refer them to the most appropriate hospitals. Machine learning (ML)-based models using additional clinical and geospatial epidemiological data may improve the identification of infected patients and guide EMS in detecting COVID-19 cases before confirmation with SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase PCR (rtPCR).MethodsThis was an observational, retrospective cohort study using data from October 2020 to July 2021 (training set) and October 2021 to December 2021 (validation set) from patients who underwent a SARS-CoV-2 rtPCR test within 7 days of an EMS call. The performance of an operator-based interview using close contact history and signs/symptoms of COVID-19 was assessed in the training set for its ability to determine which patients had an rtPCR in the 7 days before or after the call. The interview accuracy was compared with four supervised ML models to predict positivity for SARS-CoV-2 within 7 days using readily available prehospital data retrieved from both training and validation sets.ResultsThe training set includes 264 976 patients, median age 74 (IQR 55-84). Test characteristics for the detection of COVID-19-positive patients of the operator-based interview were: sensitivity 85.5%, specificity 58.7%, positive predictive value (PPV) 37.5% and negative predictive value (NPV) 93.3%. Contact history, fever and cough showed the highest association with SARS-CoV-2 infection. In the validation set (103 336 patients, median age 73 (IQR 50-84)), the best-performing ML model had an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.86), sensitivity 91.4% (95 CI% 0.91 to 0.92), specificity 44.2% (95% CI 0.44 to 0.45) and accuracy 85% (95% CI 0.84 to 0.85). PPV and NPV were 13.3% (95% CI 0.13 to 0.14) and 98.2% (95% CI 0.98 to 0.98), respectively. Contact history, fever, call geographical distribution and cough were the most important variables in determining the outcome.ConclusionML-based models might help EMS identify patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and in guiding EMS allocation of hospital resources based on prespecified criteria

Improved clinical investigation and evaluation of high-risk medical devices: the rationale and objectives of CORE-MD (Coordinating Research and Evidence for Medical Devices)

: In the European Union (EU) the delivery of health services is a national responsibility but there are concerted actions between member states to protect public health. Approval of pharmaceutical products is the responsibility of the European Medicines Agency, whereas authorizing the placing on the market of medical devices is decentralized to independent 'conformity assessment' organizations called notified bodies. The first legal basis for an EU system of evaluating medical devices and approving their market access was the medical device directives, from the 1990s. Uncertainties about clinical evidence requirements, among other reasons, led to the EU Medical Device Regulation (2017/745) that has applied since May 2021. It provides general principles for clinical investigations but few methodological details-which challenges responsible authorities to set appropriate balances between regulation and innovation, pre- and post-market studies, and clinical trials and real-world evidence. Scientific experts should advise on methods and standards for assessing and approving new high-risk devices, and safety, efficacy, and transparency of evidence should be paramount. The European Commission recently awarded a Horizon 2020 grant to a consortium led by the European Society of Cardiology and the European Federation of National Associations of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, that will review methodologies of clinical investigations, advise on study designs, and develop recommendations for aggregating clinical data from registries and other real-world sources. The CORE-MD project (Coordinating Research and Evidence for Medical Devices) will run until March 2024; here we describe how it may contribute to the development of regulatory science in Europe

Geospatial Correlation Analysis between Air Pollution Indicators and Estimated Speed of COVID-19 Diffusion in the Lombardy Region (Italy)

Background: the Lombardy region in Italy was the first area in Europe to record an outbreak of COVID-19 and one of the most affected worldwide. As this territory is strongly polluted, it was hypothesized that pollution had a role in facilitating the diffusion of the epidemic, but results are uncertain. Aim: the paper explores the effect of air pollutants in the first spread of COVID-19 in Lombardy, with a novel geomatics approach addressing the possible confounding factors, the reliability of data, the measurement of diffusion speed, and the biasing effect of the lockdown measures. Methods and results: all municipalities were assigned to one of five possible territorial classes (TC) according to land-use and socio-economic status, and they were grouped into districts of 100,000 residents. For each district, the speed of COVID-19 diffusion was estimated from the ambulance dispatches and related to indicators of mean concentration of air pollutants over 1, 6, and 12 months, grouping districts in the same TC. Significant exponential correlations were found for ammonia (NH3) in both prevalently agricultural (R2 = 0.565) and mildly urbanized (R2 = 0.688) areas. Conclusions: this is the first study relating COVID-19 estimated speed of diffusion with indicators of exposure to NH3. As NH3 could induce oxidative stress, its role in creating a pre-existing fragility that could have facilitated SARS-CoV-2 replication and worsening of patient conditions could be speculated

Development of a Novel Framework to Propose New Strategies for Automated External Defibrillators Deployment Targeting Residential Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests: Application to the City of Milan

Public Access Defibrillation (PAD) is the leading strategy in reducing time to first defibrillation in cases of Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA), but PAD programs are underperforming considering their potentiality. Our aim was to develop an analysis and optimization framework, exploiting georeferenced information processed with Geographic Information Systems (GISs), specifically targeting residential OHCAs. The framework, based on an historical database of OHCAs, location of Automated External Defibrillators (AEDs), topographic and demographic information, proposes new strategies for AED deployment focusing on residential OHCAs, where performance assessment was evaluated using AEDs “catchment area” (area that can be reached within 6 min walk along streets). The proposed framework was applied to the city of Milan, Lombardy (Italy), considering the OHCA database of four years (2015–2018), including 8152 OHCA, of which 7179 (88.06%) occurred in residential locations. The proposed strategy for AEDs deployment resulted more effective compared to the existing distribution, with a significant improvement (from 41.77% to 73.33%) in OHCAs’ spatial coverage. Further improvements were simulated with different cost scenarios, resulting in more cost-efficient solutions. Results suggest that PAD programs, either in brand-new territories or in further improvements, could significantly benefit from a comprehensive planning, based on mathematical models for risk mapping and on geographical tools

Real-life time and distance covered by lay first responders alerted by means of smartphone application: implications for early initiation of cardiopulmonary resuscitation and access to automatic external defibrillators

Aim of the Study: To investigate the distance covered by lay first responders (LFR) alerted for an out-of- hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), evaluate the time elapsed between mission acceptance and arrival at the OHCA site, as well as the distance between the LFRs to the closest automatic external defibrillator (AED). Methods: The LFR route, thus time, distance information, and the average speed of each responder were estimated. The same methodology was used to calculate the distance between the closest AED and the LFRs, as well as the distance between the AED and OHCA site. Results: Between June 1st, 2014 and December 31st, 2017, the LFR network was activated in occasion of 484 suspected OHCAs. 710 LFRs were automatically selected by the application and accepted the mission. On average 1.5 LFRs arrived at the OHCA site. LFRs covered a distance of 1196 m (IQR 596\u20132314) at a median speed of 6.9 m/s (IQR 4.5\u20139.8) or 24.8 Km/h. In 4.4% of the cases the speed of the LFRs was compatible with a brisk walk activity (<1.5 m/sec). The total intervention time of an LFR, who first retrieved an AED and then went to the OHCA site, was longer (275 s, IQR: 184 s\u2013414 s) compared to the total intervention time of a LFR (197 s, IQR: 120 s\u2013306 s; p < 0.001), who went to the OHCA site directly without retrieving an AED. Conclusions: The dispatch of LFRs directly to the OHCA site instead of first retrieving the AED, significantly decreases the time to CPR initiation. More studies are needed to assess the prognostic implications on survival and neurological outcome