4,625 research outputs found
Disease Progression Modeling and Prediction through Random Effect Gaussian Processes and Time Transformation
The development of statistical approaches for the joint modelling of the
temporal changes of imaging, biochemical, and clinical biomarkers is of
paramount importance for improving the understanding of neurodegenerative
disorders, and for providing a reference for the prediction and quantification
of the pathology in unseen individuals. Nonetheless, the use of disease
progression models for probabilistic predictions still requires investigation,
for example for accounting for missing observations in clinical data, and for
accurate uncertainty quantification. We tackle this problem by proposing a
novel Gaussian process-based method for the joint modeling of imaging and
clinical biomarker progressions from time series of individual observations.
The model is formulated to account for individual random effects and time
reparameterization, allowing non-parametric estimates of the biomarker
evolution, as well as high flexibility in specifying correlation structure, and
time transformation models. Thanks to the Bayesian formulation, the model
naturally accounts for missing data, and allows for uncertainty quantification
in the estimate of evolutions, as well as for probabilistic prediction of
disease staging in unseen patients. The experimental results show that the
proposed model provides a biologically plausible description of the evolution
of Alzheimer's pathology across the whole disease time-span as well as
remarkable predictive performance when tested on a large clinical cohort with
missing observations.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure
Rotationally resolved spectroscopy of (20000) Varuna in the near-infrared
Models of the escape and retention of volatiles by minor icy objects exclude
any presence of volatile ices on the surface of TNOs smaller than ~1000km in
diameter at the typical temperature in this region of the solar system, whereas
the same models show that water ice is stable on the surface of objects over a
wide range of diameters. Collisions and cometary activity have been used to
explain the process of surface refreshing of TNOs and Centaurs. These processes
can produce surface heterogeneity that can be studied by collecting information
at different rotational phases. The aims of this work are to study the surface
composition of (20000)Varuna, a TNO with a diameter ~650km and to search for
indications of rotational variability. We observed Varuna during two
consecutive nights in January 2011 with NICS@TNG obtaining a set of spectra
covering the whole rotation period of Varuna. After studying the spectra
corresponding to different rotational phases, we did not find any indication of
surface variability. In all the spectra, we detect an absorption at 2{\mu}m,
suggesting the presence of water ice on the surface. We do not detect any other
volatiles on the surface, although the S/N is not high enough to discard their
presence. Based on scattering models, we present two possible compositions
compatible with our set of data and discuss their implications in the frame of
the collisional history of the Kuiper Belt. We find that the most probable
composition for the surface of Varuna is a mixture of amorphous silicates,
complex organics, and water ice. This composition is compatible with all the
materials being primordial. However, our data can also be fitted by models
containing up to a 10% of methane ice. For an object with the characteristics
of Varuna, this volatile could not be primordial, so an event, such as an
energetic impact, would be needed to explain its presence on the surface.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, to be published in A&
Instability of free interfaces in premixed flame propagation
In this survey, we are interested in the instability of flame fronts regarded as free interfaces. We successively consider a classical Arrhenius kinetics (thin flame) and a stepwise ignition-tempera ture kinetics (thick flame) with two free interfaces. A general method initially developed for thin flame problems subject to interface jump conditions is proving to be an effective strategy for smoother thick flame systems. It relies on the elimination of the free interface(s) and reduction to a fully nonlinear parabolic problem. The theory of analytic semigroups is a key tool to study the linearized operators
- …