Performance Pay and the Erosion of Worker Cooperation: Field experimental evidence

We report the results of a field experiment with bicycle messengers in Switzerland and the United States. Messenger work is individualized enough that firms can choose to condition pay on it, but significant externalities in messenger behavior nonetheless give their on-the-job interactions the character of a social dilemma. Firms therefore suffer efficiency losses when messengers fail to cooperate. Second-mover behavior in our sequential Prisoner’s Dilemma allows us to characterize the cooperativeness of our participants. We find that messengers, like our student controls, have heterogeneous social preferences, but are much more cooperative than students. Among messengers, we find that employees at firms that pay for performance are significantly less cooperative than those who are paid hourly or are members of cooperatives. To examine whether the difference is the result of treatment or selection we exploit the fact that firm type is location-specific in Switzerland and that entering messengers must work in performance pay firms in the U.S. We find that the erosion of cooperation under performance pay is predominantly due to treatment, and that the treatment effect is relatively rapid, more akin to the differential cueing of a behavioral norm than the gradual acquisition of a new preference.field experiment, social preference, altruism, conditional cooperation, egoism, social dilemma

Cognitive Skills Explain Economic Preferences, Strategic Behavior, and Job Attachment

Economic analysis has said little about how an individual’s cognitive skills (CS's) are related to the individual’s preferences in different choice domains, such as risk-taking or saving, and how preferences in different domains are related to each other. Using a sample of 1,000 trainee truckers we report three findings. First, we show a strong and significant relationship between an individual’s cognitive skills and preferences, and between the preferences in different choice domains. The latter relationship may be counterintuitive: a patient individual, more inclined to save, is also more willing to take calculated risks. A second finding is that measures of cognitive skill predict social awareness and choices in a sequential Prisoner's Dilemma game. Subjects with higher CS's more accurately forecast others' behavior, and differentiate their behavior depending on the first mover’s choice, returning higher amount for a higher transfer, and lower for a lower one. After controlling for investment motives, subjects with higher CS’s also cooperate more as first movers. A third finding concerns on-the-job choices. Our subjects incur a significant financial debt for their training that is forgiven only after twelve months of service. Yet over half leave within the first year, and cognitive skills are also strong predictors of who exits too early, stronger than any other social, economic and personality measure in our data. These results suggest that cognitive skills affect the economic lives of individuals, by systematically changing preferences and choices in a way that favors the economic success of individuals with higher cognitive skills.field experiment, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, loss aversion, time preference, Prisoners Dilemma, social dilemma, IQ, MPQ, numeracy, U.S. trucking industry, for-hire carriage, truckload (TL), driver turnover, employment duration, survival model

Overconfidence is a Social Signaling Bias

Evidence from psychology and economics indicates that many individuals overestimate their ability, both absolutely and relatively. We test three different theories about observed relative overconfidence. The first theory notes that simple statistical comparisons (for example, whether the fraction of individuals rating own skill above the median value is larger than half) are compatible (Benoît and Dubra, 2007) with a Bayesian model of updating from a common prior and truthful statements. We show that such model imposes testable restrictions on relative ability judgments, and we test the restrictions. Data on 1,016 individuals' relative ability judgments about two cognitive tests rejects the Bayesian model. The second theory suggests that self-image concerns asymmetrically affect the choice to get new information about oneâs abilities, and this asymmetry produces overconfidence (Kőszegi, 2006; Weinberg, 2006). We test an important specific prediction of these models: individuals with a higher belief will be less likely to search for further information about their skill, because this information might make this belief worse. Our data also reject this prediction. The third theory is that overconfidence is induced by the desire to send positive signals to others about oneâs own skill; this suggests either a bias in judgment, strategic lying, or both. We provide evidence that personality traits strongly affect relative ability judgments in a pattern that is consistent with this third theory. Our results together suggest that overconfidence in statements is most likely to be induced by social concerns than by either of the other two factors.IQ, field experiment, social signaling, self-image, Bayesian updating, overconfidence, numeracy, personality, MPQ

Which Measures of Time Preference Best Predict Outcomes? Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment

Economists and psychologists have devised numerous instruments to measure time preferences and have generated a rich literature examining the extent to which time preferences predict important outcomes; however, we still do not know which measures work best. With the help of a large sample of non-student participants (truck driver trainees) and administrative data on outcomes, we gather four different time preference measures and test the extent to which they predict both on their own and when they are all forced to compete head-to-head. Our results suggest that the now familiar (β, δ) formulation of present bias and exponential discounting predicts best, especially when both parameters are used.time preference, impatience, discounting, present bias, field experiment, trucker

Description and interpretation of natural fracture patterns in sandstones of the Frontier Formation along the Hogsback, southwestern Wyoming

Fractures exposed in outcrop can be classified into three general groups: J1 fractures strike generally north-south and were formed early, in a regime of east-west extension during basin subsidence. These fractures have the greatest potential for extrapolation into the subsurface of the basin. J2 fractures formed during the subsequent onset of thrusting that led to the Hogsback escarpment; J2 fractures were created by a north-south dilatancy in response to east-west tectonic compression and strike generally east-west. They may extend slightly east of the thrust belt. J3 fractures formed soon after J2 fractures as a mechanical response to local shear and torsion within the thrust plate. They will not exist beyond the limits of the thrust belt. Petrographic study of selected samples suggests that the mechanical properties that controlled fracture susceptibility changed through time, dictating the potential for the sandstones to fracture during given stress-producing tectonic events.Bureau of Economic Geolog

Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events

AbstractThe availability of output from climate model ensembles, such as phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), has greatly expanded information about future projections, but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be utilized. The multi-model average is the most commonly cited single estimate of future conditions, but higher-order moments representing the variance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to assess extreme weather events at a level aimed to be appropriate for decision makers. Our analysis uses the distribution of 13 global climate model projections to derive the inter-model standard deviation, skewness, and percentile ranges for simulated changes in extreme heat, cold, and precipitation by the mid-21st century, based on the A1B emissions scenario. These metrics provide information on overall confidence across the entire range of projections (via the inter-model standard deviation), relative confidence in upper-end versus lower-end changes (via skewness), and quantitative uncertainty bounds (derived from bootstrapping).Over our analysis domain, which covers the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, some primary findings include: (1) greater confidence in projections of less extreme cold than more extreme heat and intense precipitation, (2) greater confidence in relatively conservative projections of extreme heat, and (3) higher spatial variability in the confidence of projected increases in heavy precipitation. In addition, we describe how a simplified bootstrapping approach can assist decision makers by estimating the probability of changes in extreme weather events based on user-defined percentile thresholds

Exploring Planets with Directed Aerial Robot Explorers

Global Aerospace Corporation (GAC) is developing a revolutionary system architecture for exploration of planetary atmospheres and surfaces from atmospheric altitudes. The work is supported by the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC). The innovative system architecture relies upon the use of Directed Aerial Robot Explorers (DAREs), which essentially are long-duration-flight autonomous balloons with trajectory control capabilities that can deploy swarms of miniature probes over multiple target areas. Balloon guidance capabilities will offer unprecedented opportunities in high-resolution, targeted observations of both atmospheric and surface phenomena. Multifunctional microprobes will be deployed from the balloons once over the target areas, and perform a multitude of functions, such as atmospheric profiling or surface exploration, relaying data back to the balloons or an orbiter. This architecture will enable low-cost, low-energy, long-term global exploration of planetary atmospheres and surfaces. This paper focuses on a conceptual analysis of the DARE architecture capabilities and science applications for Venus, Titan and Jupiter. Preliminary simulations with simplified atmospheric models show that a relatively small trajectory control wing can enable global coverage of the atmospheres of Venus and Titan by a single balloon over a 100-day mission. This presents unique opportunities for global in situ sampling of the atmospheric composition and dynamics, atmospheric profiling over multiple sites with small dropsondes and targeted deployment of surface microprobes. At Jupiter, path guidance capabilities of the DARE platforms permits targeting localized regions of interest, such as "hot spots" or the Great Red Spot. A single DARE platform at Jupiter can sample major types of the atmospheric flows (zones and belts) over a 100-day mission. Observations by deployable probes would reveal if the differences exist in radiative, dynamic and compositional environments at these sites

Self Selection Does Not Increase Other-Regarding Preferences among Adult Laboratory Subjects, but Student Subjects May Be More Self-Regarding than Adults

We use a sequential prisoner's dilemma game to measure the other-regarding behavior in samples from three related populations in the upper Midwest of the United States: 100 college students, 94 non-student adults from the community surrounding the college and 1,069 adult trainee truckers in a residential training program. Both of the first two groups were recruited according to procedures commonly used in experimental economics (i.e., via e-mail and bulletin-board advertisements) and therefore subjects self-selected into the experiment. Because the structure of their training program reduced the opportunity cost of participating dramatically, 91% of the solicited trainees participated in the third group, so there was little scope for self-selection in this sample. We find no differences in the elicited other-regarding preferences between the self-selected adults and the adult trainees, suggesting that selection into this type of experiment is unlikely to bias inferences with respect to non-student adult subjects. We also test (and reject) the more specific hypothesis that approval-seeking subjects are the ones most likely to select into experiments. At the same time, we find a large difference between the self-selected students and the self-selected adults from the surrounding community: the students appear considerably less pro-social. Regression results controlling for demographic factors confirm these basic findings.methodology, selection bias, laboratory experiment, field experiment, other-regarding behavior, social preferences, truckload, trucker

Airway management in a Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (HEMS): a retrospective observational study of 365 out-of-hospital intubations.

BACKGROUND Airway management is a key skill in any helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS). Intubation is successful less often than in the hospital, and alternative forms of airway management are more often needed. METHODS Retrospective observational cohort study in an anaesthesiologist-staffed HEMS in Switzerland. Patient charts were analysed for all calls to the scene (n = 9,035) taking place between June 2016 and May 2017 (12 months). The primary outcome parameter was intubation success rate. Secondary parameters included the number of alternative techniques that eventually secured the airway, and comparison of patients with and without difficulties in airway management. RESULTS A total of 365 patients receiving invasive ventilatory support were identified. Difficulties in airway management occurred in 26 patients (7.1%). Severe traumatic brain injury was the most common indication for out-of-hospital Intubation (n = 130, 36%). Airway management was performed by 129 different Rega physicians and 47 different Rega paramedics. Paramedics were involved in out-of-hospital airway manoeuvres significantly more often than physicians: median 7 (IQR 4 to 9) versus 2 (IQR 1 to 4), p < 0.001. CONCLUSION Despite high overall success rates for endotracheal intubation in the physician-staffed service, individual physicians get only limited real-life experience with advanced airway management in the field. This highlights the importance of solid basic competence in a discipline such as anaesthesiology