An Ex-Ante Method to Verify Commercial U.S. Nuclear Power Plant Decommissioning Cost Estimates

There are billions of dollars at stake in the US nuclear power plant decommissioning market. Approximately 100 nuclear power plants are still operating but will come offline and need to be decommissioned over the next few decades. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) mandates that the operators of these plants set money aside in segregated funds to finance decommissioning work. However, it is hard for external stakeholders to verify the cost estimations, which ultimately determine how much operators are required to save. In this paper, we develop a method to validate the existing cost models and calculate a contingency empirically for these models. We extend Reference Class Forecasting methods using adaptive kernel fitting and the Wilks' formula. Based on this method, and assuming a social tolerance for potential cost overruns of 20%, we calculate a new contingency of 48% of the estimated radiological decommissioning cost. After a "stress test" of the current decommissioning trust funds of operating reactor sites, we find that 48% of reactors we considered have sufficient funding-in many cases substantially more than required-and could therefore finance the potential scale of overrun. However, we find that 28 plants (52%) would fall short on average $211 million. Still, overruns at every plant are not a foregone conclusion because-while overruns are probable, based on past experience-the actual scale and frequency is not known. Nevertheless, our results add further evidence to the mounting call for the NRC to revise its cost models in light of new information

Cross-Country Survey on the Decommissioning of Commercial Nuclear Reactors: Status, Insights and Knowledge Gaps

In this survey paper, we bring together the insights from six country case studies on decommissioning commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). Nuclear decommissioning has often been overlooked in past literature but will gain relevance in future research as more and more NPPs reach the ends of their respective lifetimes. The six countries we selected for our research have commercial nuclear industries that span a wide spectrum in terms of organization, regulation, financial provisions, and production of decommissioning services. Based on the cross comparison of countries and their approaches to decommissioning, we highlight a series of gaps in the existing research that we and other researchers should fill in order to derive best practices for the commercial decommissioning industry

Optimized market value of alpine solar photovoltaic installations

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is the most rapidly expanding renewable resource worldwide. Yet, its full potential may be hindered by mismatches with market demand and correlated production profiles. In this research, we explore a case study of innovative PV placements in alpine regions using two, soft-linked optimization models of Switzerland's electricity system. Using Swissmod, an electricity dispatch and load-flow model, and OREES, an electricity system model employing evolution strategy to optimize PV placement, we simulate market prices of optimized PV placements given multiple years of weather data, various CO2 prices, and considering future electricity infrastructure developments across Europe. Mountain placements result in higher market value and less required area relative to lower-altitude PV placement strategies. The higher market value is driven by better alignment with demand, particularly during winter when demand is highest. We found that optimized alpine placements offer revenues of panel capacity (EUR/kW/year) that are on average 20% higher than revenues from urban PV installations. Furthermore, the Swiss mountains could host more than 1 GW of capacity with even greater revenues (33%). Alpine PV installations, with their higher market values and increased value factors, can potentially be very profitable investments and are also valuable from a system perspective

Preparedness of Swiss Citizens for the Future Energy Debate: How Political Predispositions Influence Factual and Perceived Knowledge

A common understanding in public opinion studies is that we, the public, often turn to mental short-cuts to form an opinion on important policy issues: in particular, we reflexively adopt the positions of the political parties with which we identify. The use of political heuristics is prevalent especially when the topic is highly politicized or technical (i.e., cognitively demanding), such as is the case in climate and energy policy. However, recent research on climate beliefs has shown that not only opinions but even our supposedly objective knowledge about the topic correlates with our political ideology. Moreover, research shows that these innocent and natural mental short-cuts may lead us to think we know (subjective knowledge) more than we do. Much of existing research in sustainability transitions has focused on the effect of policy-related information or its framing on public support for a hypothetical policy that is designed to achieve climate and sustainability goals. In reality, however, the amount and type of "relevant" information people seek is not exogenous as it is assumed in many of these studies. Instead, as marketing research has shown in the context of people's product choice, our objective and subjective knowledge influence how much and what type of information we seek. This is why we argue that the potential effect of political heuristics on our knowledge-building is concerning whether or not our political parties espouse accurate information. In this paper, we investigate whether and under what conditions our perceived or factual knowledge might be influenced by our ideological predispositions.To this end, we rely on two original surveys asking Swiss citizens about energy technologies: deep geothermal energy (domestically nascent and not highly politicized) and hydro power (mature and politicized). Both technologies are currently being considered as clean energy to partially replace nuclear power. We find multiple paths through which political predispositions can affect citizens' knowledge.First, we show evidence that subjective and objective knowledge scores are not highly correlated. That is, respondents typically think they know more (or less) than they do. Second, to our surprise, we found a more prominent effect of political heuristics on knowledge in the case of DGE, a politically nascent and less politicized topic in Switzerland compared to HP. Finally, when we probed objective knowledge more deeply and analyzed each knowledge item, we found that respondents' answers to survey items that included "trigger" words (i.e., words that might elicit political feelings) exhibited political patterning

A multi-criteria decision model for the assessment of sustainability and governance risks of tailings dams

The Brumadinho tailings dam collapse in 2019 killed hundreds and caused extensive damage to the surrounding area, including long-lasting environmental damage. Yet, this catastrophic event also triggered numerous proposals and activities to increase transparency related to environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks and sustainability in a broader context. Recently, several studies have proposed indicator-based approaches, but they generally lack a coherent aggregation and analysis of trade-offs and synergies between different sustainability criteria. Against this background, the current study seeks to create a global sustainability comparison of tailings dams at a country level, by combining harmonized data from multiple input sources through an iterative, multi-stage process. First, a comprehensive set of criteria and indicators is established that includes, among others, the impact on the environment, accident risks, and socio-political and governance aspects. Second, a dedicated Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework based on an outranking sorting approach (i.e., ELECTRE-TRI) is developed. Third, the evaluation system is applied to 43 countries that experienced at least one tailings dam failure since 1970, providing fact-based and transparent decision support to stakeholders and policy makers

Comparative risk assessment of wind turbine accidents from a societal perspective

Wind power plays a pivotal role in decarbonizing the world's electricity mix, and the current annual installed capacity growth is expected to continue, supported by ambitious targets, policies and cost reductions. However, wind power faces several social acceptance challenges that affect peoples' perception and can lead to opposition and protests. The main concerns are aesthetic impact, environmental effects on wildlife and biodiversity and health hazards. Risks and consequences due to accidents often lack an adequate analysis and discussion. Therefore, the aim of this study is a comparative risk assessment of onshore and offshore wind power accidents at a global level, under a societal perspective. First, a comprehensive data set is compiled that exclusively relies on open-source and publicly available information. The final data set comprises 2708 accidents for the period 2000-2022. Second, descriptive statistics and visualizations are used to identify temporal and geographic trends, and to relate accidents to different attributes (e.g., accident types). Third, selected indicators for fatality risk are calculated to compare different country groups and onshore vs. offshore activities. In summary, this study provides useful insights and a better understanding of accident risks with a focus on health impacts, thus complementing the industry's focus on occupational risk. Ultimately, it can help to smoothen controversies and achieve compromises in such complex decision-making processes

A two-level analysis of public support: Exploring the role of beliefs in opinions about the Swiss energy strategy

Energy system transitions in democracies require that national interests and central planning are reconciled with the public’s preferences. This pilot study investigates public support for the Swiss national energy strategy and two specific technologies that are part of it: expansion of hydropower and deep geothermal energy. It addresses two research questions. First, how does public support for a national energy transition differ from public support for specific technologies endorsed in an energy transition strategy? Second, are there differences in the factors influencing public support for these technologies? We investigate these questions empirically with a survey (N = 640), focusing on understanding the role lay-people’s expectations about the future energy system, political ideology, and future orientation play in generating support for these two levels of public support and for two technologies with different characteristics. We find that while support for an energy transition is well explained by above factors, this is true to a much lesser extent for technology support. One conclusion is that support for an energy transition and for energy technologies is politicized to varying degrees, which is why their acceptability may be less shaped by their objective characteristics, but rather by subjective perceptions and beliefs the public holds towards them

Optimized market value of alpine solar photovoltaic installations

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is the most rapidly expanding renewable resource worldwide. Yet, its full potential may be hindered by mismatches with market demand and correlated production profiles. In this research, we explore a case study of innovative PV placements in alpine regions using two, soft-linked optimization models of Switzerland's electricity system. Using Swissmod, an electricity dispatch and load-flow model, and OREES, an electricity system model employing evolution strategy to optimize PV placement, we simulate market prices of optimized PV placements given multiple years of weather data, various CO2 prices, and considering future electricity infrastructure developments across Europe. Mountain placements result in higher market value and less required area relative to lower-altitude PV placement strategies. The higher market value is driven by better alignment with demand, particularly during winter when demand is highest. We found that optimized alpine placements offer revenues of panel capacity (EUR/kW/year) that are on average 20% higher than revenues from urban PV installations. Furthermore, the Swiss mountains could host more than 1 GW of capacity with even greater revenues (33%). Alpine PV installations, with their higher market values and increased value factors, can potentially be very profitable investments and are also valuable from a system perspective.ISSN:0960-1481ISSN:1879-068