Prices and Exchange Rates: A Theory of Disconnect

I present a sticky-wage model of exchange rate pass-through with heterogeneous producers and endogenous markups. The model shows that low levels of exchange rate pass-through to firm- and aggregate-level import prices coexist with large in trade flows. After an exchange rate shock, aggregate import prices are subject to a composition bias due to changes in the extensive margin of trade (the number of goods traded between countries). At the firm level, each producer adjusts its markups depending on its own productivity and the change in the competitive environment generated by the exchange rate movement. Firm-level price responses are asymmetric---different for appreciations and depreciations---and adjustments in the intensive margin of trade (firm-level exports) are substantial. In general equilibrium, the model shows that firm reallocations increase the persistence exogenous shocks.Exchange rate pass-through; Expenditure switching regime; Heterogenous firms; Endogenous markups

Nonlinear Exchange Rate Predictability

We study whether the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate can help us account for the lack of predictability of the nominal exchange rate. We construct a smooth nonlinear error-correction model that allows us to test the hypotheses of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and nonlinear behavior on the real exchange rate in the context of a fully specified cointegrated system. Using a panel of 19 countries and three numeraires, we find evidence of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and of nonlinear mean reversion of the real exchange rate. Out-of-sample Theil's U-statistics show a higher forecast precision of the nonlinear model than the one obtained with a random walk specification. Although the robustness of the out-of-sample results over different forecast windows is somewhat limited, we are able to obtain significant predictability gains--from a parsimonious structural model with PPP fundamentals--even at short-run horizons.Exchange rates; Predictability; Nonlinearities; Purchasing power parity

The Regional Policy of the European Union and the Enlargement Process to Central and Eastern European Countries

The successive enlargement processes of the European Union have implied reforms in Regional Policy. Since the Single European Act (1987), Europe has got a structural policy mainly focused on regions whose development is lagging behind. The accession of CEECs will mean an extraordinary increase in regional development disparities. However, the current EU Regional Policy is addressed to deal with such a kind of development lags. Competition in a large market combined with regional development policy of the EU is a successful policy mix to boost growth of CEECs in the framework of an open market economy. The own success of regional policy in current objective 1 regions will led to an important reduction of assisted population. The financial perspectives approved in the Berlin Summit (March 1999) provides enough financial space to assist 90% of population in CEECs and 75% of current population under objective 1. The main challenge involved in the successful extension of EU Regional Policy to CEECs lies in the field of management capabilities and administration reforms that must be carried out in these countries.Regional Policy, European Union, Central and Eastern European Countries

Regional Policy and Convergence in Europe: The Case of Backward Regions

This paper analyzes the performance of regions whose development is lagging behind since the institutionalization of the EU regional policy, (1989). Results from a panel data model with fixed effects prove that backward regions have been catching up with the EU average income since the launching of the first programming period, the so called Delors'I package, 1989-1993

Principles for Consciousness in Integrated Cognitive Control

In this article we will argue that given certain conditions for the evolution of bi- \ud ological controllers, these will necessarily evolve in the direction of incorporating \ud consciousness capabilities. We will also see what are the necessary mechanics for \ud the provision of these capabilities and extrapolate this vision to the world of artifi- \ud cial systems postulating seven design principles for conscious systems. This article \ud was published in the journal Neural Networks special issue on brain and conscious- \ud ness