9 research outputs found
Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to improve predictions of low-frequency cyanobacterial events
Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water and air quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where uncertainty enters the forecasting system, which is necessary to refine and improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance (uncertainty) introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of initial state conditions. Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of high-density cyanobacterial events, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. Cyanobacteria can produce toxic or unsightly surface scums and advance warning of these events could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we calibrate fourteen Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial growth using data from eight summers of weekly cyanobacteria density samples in an oligotrophic (low nutrient) lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata. We identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (one-week to four-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities over two years. Water temperature was an important predictor in calibration and at the four-week forecast horizon. However, no environmental covariates improved over a simple autoregressive (AR) model at the one-week horizon. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and often did not capture rare peak density occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables in calibration are not always effective for near-term forecasting of low-frequency events. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions uncertainty dominated forecasts at both time horizons. These findings suggest that observed densities result from both growth and movement of G. echinulata, and that imperfect observations as well as spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations affect forecast skill. Future research efforts should prioritize long-term studies to refine process understanding and increased sampling frequency and replication to better define initial conditions. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.Accepted manuscrip
COVID‐19 and Religious Ethics
The editors of the JRE solicited short essays on the COVID-19 pandemic from a group of scholars of religious ethics that reflected on how the field might help them make sense of the complex religious, cultural, ethical, and political implications of the pandemic, and on how the pandemic might shape the future of religious ethics
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Phylogenomic Analysis of a 55.1-kb 19-Gene Dataset Resolves a Monophyletic Fusarium that Includes the Fusarium solani Species Complex.
Scientific communication is facilitated by a data-driven, scientifically sound taxonomy that considers the end-user's needs and established successful practice. In 2013, the Fusarium community voiced near unanimous support for a concept of Fusarium that represented a clade comprising all agriculturally and clinically important Fusarium species, including the F. solani species complex (FSSC). Subsequently, this concept was challenged in 2015 by one research group who proposed dividing the genus Fusarium into seven genera, including the FSSC described as members of the genus Neocosmospora, with subsequent justification in 2018 based on claims that the 2013 concept of Fusarium is polyphyletic. Here, we test this claim and provide a phylogeny based on exonic nucleotide sequences of 19 orthologous protein-coding genes that strongly support the monophyly of Fusarium including the FSSC. We reassert the practical and scientific argument in support of a genus Fusarium that includes the FSSC and several other basal lineages, consistent with the longstanding use of this name among plant pathologists, medical mycologists, quarantine officials, regulatory agencies, students, and researchers with a stake in its taxonomy. In recognition of this monophyly, 40 species described as genus Neocosmospora were recombined in genus Fusarium, and nine others were renamed Fusarium. Here the global Fusarium community voices strong support for the inclusion of the FSSC in Fusarium, as it remains the best scientific, nomenclatural, and practical taxonomic option available
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Phylogenomic analysis of a 55.1 kb 19-gene dataset resolves a monophyletic Fusarium that includes the Fusarium solani Species Complex.
Scientific communication is facilitated by a data-driven, scientifically sound taxonomy that considers the end-user's needs and established successful practice. Previously (Geiser et al. 2013; Phytopathology 103:400-408. 2013), the Fusarium community voiced near unanimous support for a concept of Fusarium that represented a clade comprising all agriculturally and clinically important Fusarium species, including the F. solani Species Complex (FSSC). Subsequently, this concept was challenged by one research group (Lombard et al. 2015 Studies in Mycology 80: 189-245) who proposed dividing Fusarium into seven genera, including the FSSC as the genus Neocosmospora, with subsequent justification based on claims that the Geiser et al. (2013) concept of Fusarium is polyphyletic (Sandoval-Denis et al. 2018; Persoonia 41:109-129). Here we test this claim, and provide a phylogeny based on exonic nucleotide sequences of 19 orthologous protein-coding genes that strongly support the monophyly of Fusarium including the FSSC. We reassert the practical and scientific argument in support of a Fusarium that includes the FSSC and several other basal lineages, consistent with the longstanding use of this name among plant pathologists, medical mycologists, quarantine officials, regulatory agencies, students and researchers with a stake in its taxonomy. In recognition of this monophyly, 40 species recently described as Neocosmospora were recombined in Fusarium, and nine others were renamed Fusarium. Here the global Fusarium community voices strong support for the inclusion of the FSSC in Fusarium, as it remains the best scientific, nomenclatural and practical taxonomic option available