Scalable high-resolution forecasting of sparse spatiotemporal events with kernel methods: a winning solution to the NIJ "Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge"

We propose a generic spatiotemporal event forecasting method, which we developed for the National Institute of Justice’s (NIJ) RealTime Crime Forecasting Challenge (National Institute of Justice, 2017). Our method is a spatiotemporal forecasting model combining scalable randomized Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) methods for approximating Gaussian processes with autoregressive smoothing kernels in a regularized supervised learning framework. While the smoothing kernels capture the two main approaches in current use in the field of crime forecasting, kernel density estimation (KDE) and self-exciting point process (SEPP) models, the RKHS component of the model can be understood as an approximation to the popular log-Gaussian Cox Process model. For inference, we discretize the spatiotemporal point pattern and learn a log-intensity function using the Poisson likelihood and highly efficient gradientbased optimization methods. Model hyperparameters including quality of RKHS approximation, spatial and temporal kernel lengthscales, number of autoregressive lags, bandwidths for smoothing kernels, as well as cell shape, size, and rotation, were learned using crossvalidation. Resulting predictions significantly exceeded baseline KDE estimates and SEPP models for sparse events

Social cognition in individuals with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome and its link with psychopathology and social outcomes: a review

Background: The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) is a genetic syndrome that results in a highly variable profile of affected individuals of which impairments in the social domain and increased psychopathology are the most prominent. Notably, 25–30% of affected individuals eventually develop schizophrenia/psychosis, predisposing persons with the syndrome to increased risk for this disorder. Because social cognition is considered to underlie social behavior and to be related to psychopathology, this systematic review investigated social cognition in individuals with 22q11DS and examined reported links across its domains with psychopathology and social outcomes. This can provide the basis for a closer understanding of the path from risk to disorder and will inform on the specific domains that can be targeted with preventive intervention strategies. Method: Systematic literature review of studies that reported the links between social cognitive domains and psychopathology and/or social outcomes in individuals with 22q11DS. Electronic databases searched were PubMed and PsycINFO. Results: Defined eligibility criteria identified a total of ten studies to be included in the present review. Selected studies investigated links between two domains of social cognition (emotion processing and theory of mind (ToM)) and psychopathology and/or social outcomes. With respect to the links to psychopathology, two aspects of social cognition were related primarily to negative symptoms. Results regarding the associations to positive and emotional symptoms (anxiety/depression) are limited and require further investigation. Even though both aspects of social cognition were associated with social outcomes, several studies also found no links between these two domains. Both reports invite for an additional examination of reported results and specific considerations regarding chosen constructs. Conclusion: Although equivocal, results of the present review provide sufficient evidence that social cognition is a useful domain for the closer elucidation of clinical outcomes and social difficulties in this population. At the same time, longitudinal studies and consideration of other variables are also necessary for a timely understanding of affected persons in this respect

Compositional and Microstructural Evolution of Olivine During Pulsed Laser Irradiation: Insights Based on a FIB/Field-Emission TEM Study

Introduction: The use of pulsed laser irradiation to simulate the short duration, high-energy conditions characteristic of micrometeorite impacts is now an established approach in experimental space weathering studies. The laser generates both melt and vapor deposits that contain nanophase metallic Fe (npFe(sup 0)) grains with size distributions and optical properties similar to those in natural impact-generated melt and vapor deposits. There remains uncertainty, however, about how well lasers simulate the mechanical work and internal (thermal) energy partitioning that occurs in actual impacts. We are currently engaged in making a direct comparison between the products of laser irradiation and experimental/natural hypervelocity impacts. An initial step reported here is to use analytical TEM is to attain a better understanding of how the microstructure and composition of laser deposits evolve over multiple cycles of pulsed laser irradiation. Experimental Methods: We irradiated pressed-powder pellets of San Carlos olivine (Fo(sub 90)) with up to 99 rastered pulses of a GAM ArF excimer laser. The irradiated surface of the sample were characterized by SEM imaging and areas were selected for FIB cross sectioning for TEM study using an FEI Quanta dual-beam electron/focused ion beam instrument. FIB sections were characterized using a JEOL2500SE analytical field-emission scanning transmission electron microscope (FE-STEM) optimized for quantitative element mapping at less than 10 nm spatial resolutions. Results: In the SEM the 99 pulse pressed pellet sample shows a complex, inhomogeneous, distribution of laser-generated material, largely concentrated in narrow gaps and larger depressions between grains. Local concentrations of npFe0 spherules 0.1 to 1 micrometers in size are visible within these deposits in SEM back-scatter images. Fig. 1 shows bright-field STEM images of a FIB cross-section of a one of these deposits that continuously covers the top and sloping side of an olivine grain. The deposit has 3 microstructurally distinct sub-layers composed of silicate glass with varying modal fractions and size distributions of npFe( sup 0) spherules, along with nanocrystalline silicate material. A relatively thin (50-300 nm) topmost surface layer has a high-concentration of npFe0 spherules 5-20 nm in size. Element mapping shows the layer to be enriched in Fe by a factor of 2.5 relative to the olivine substrate, with Mg and Si depleted by 20% and 10% respectively. This is compositionally complementary to the underlying, middle layer of the deposit that is depleted in Fe, enriched in Mg and has a much lower npFe0 concentration. A third layer of nanocrystalline olivine occurs at the substrate interface. Discussion: The FE-STEM results suggest the topmost layer is a vapor deposit, underlain by a thicker microstructurally complex melt-generated layer. The compositional relations suggest the melt layer was partially vaporized, preferentially losing more volatile elements (e.g., Fe). The vaporized material re-condensed to form the thin, npFe(sup 0)-rich surface deposit during or immediately after the scan cycle. Nanocrystalline olivine that grew within the melt layer as it formed and cooled is similar in volume and microstructure to what we have observed in the impact melt lining of a micrometeorite impact crater in olivine. This suggest the time-temperature relations attained in the laser sample may not be too different from a micrometeorite impact. Our TEM observations, however, do not show evidence for the same level of mechanical dam-age (e.g., fracturing) seen around the natural micrometeorite crater

Ciguatera mini review: 21st century environmental challenges and the interdisciplinary research efforts rising to meet them

Globally, the livelihoods of over a billion people are affected by changes to marine eco-systems, both structurally and systematically. Resources and ecosystem services, provided by the marine environment, contribute nutrition, income, and health benefits for communities. One threat to these securities is ciguatera poisoning; worldwide, the most commonly reported non‐bacterial seafood‐related illness. Ciguatera is caused by the consumption of (primarily) finfish contaminated with ciguatoxins, potent neurotoxins produced by benthic single‐cell microalgae. When consumed, ciguatoxins are biotransformed and can bioaccumulate throughout the food‐web via complex path-ways. Ciguatera‐derived food insecurity is particularly extreme for small island‐nations, where fear of intoxication can lead to fishing restrictions by region, species, or size. Exacerbating these com-plexities are anthropogenic or natural changes occurring in global marine habitats, e.g., climate change, greenhouse‐gas induced physical oceanic changes, overfishing, invasive species, and even the international seafood trade. Here we provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century regarding the many facets of ciguatera, including the complex nature of this illness, the biological/environmental factors affecting the causative organisms, their toxins, vectors, detection methods, human‐health oriented responses, and ultimately an outlook towards the future. Ciguatera research efforts face many social and environmental challenges this century. However, several future‐oriented goals are within reach, including digital solutions for seafood supply chains, identifying novel compounds and methods with the potential for advanced diagnostics, treatments, and prediction capabilities. The advances described herein provide confidence that the tools are now available to answer many of the remaining questions surrounding ciguatera and therefore protection measures can become more accurate and routine

Antibody Concentrations to A Beta 1-42 Monomer and Soluble Oligomers in Untreated and Antibody-Antigen-Dissociated Intravenous Immunoglobulin Preparations

Cognitive improvement in Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD) patients treated with intravenous immunoglobulin (IvIg) has been attributed to its antibodies to amyloid beta (A beta) We compared the concentrations of specific antibodies to soluble A beta 1-42 conformations, namely A beta 1-42 monomer and A beta 1-42 soluble oligomers, between three IvIg preparations. Gamunex, Gammagard. and Flebogamma. To determine specific antibody Concentrations to these A beta 1-42 conformations. nonspecific binding of the IvIg preparations to the An reverse sequence, A beta 42-1. was subtracted These antibodies were measured in untreated IvIg preparations and also after they were treated to dissociate antibody-antigen complexes. because this procedure has been reported to increase the detectable levels of serum anti-A beta antibodies. Antibody levels to A beta 1-42 monomer were significantly higher in untreated Gamunex than in the other two IvIg preparations, and antibody-antigen dissociation increased the measured anti-A beta monomer concentrations in Gamunex and Gammagard Dissociated Gamunex and Gammagard had higher anti-A beta monomer levels than Flebogamma. Generally similar results were found for antibodies to soluble A beta 1-42 oligomers. with the exception that after antibody-antigen dissociation, only Gammagard had significantly higher antibody levels than Flebogamma. These differences in antibody concentrations to A beta 1-42 conformations (particularly to A beta 1-42 soluble oligomers, thought to be the most neurotoxic conformation of soluble A beta) and the increased availability of these antibodies after antibody-antigen complex dissociation have important implications for IvIg treatment of AD patients

Irradiation of FeS: Implications for the Lifecycle of Sulfur in the Interstellar Medium and Presolar FeS Grains

Fe(Ni) sulfides are ubiquitous in chondritic meteorites and cometary samples where they are the dominant host of sulfur. Despite their abundance in these early solar system materials, their presence in interstellar and circumstellar environments is poorly understood. Fe-sulfides have been reported from astronomical observations of pre- and post-main sequence stars [1, 2] and occur as inclusions in bonafide circumstellar silicate grains [3, 4]. In cold, dense molecular cloud (MC) environments, sulfur is highly depleted from the gas phase [e.g. 5], yet observations of sulfur-bearing molecules in dense cores find a total abundance that is only a small fraction of the sulfur seen in diffuse regions [6], therefore the bulk of the depletion must reside in an abundant unobserved phase. In stark contrast, sulfur is essentially undepleted from the gas phase in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) [7-9], indicating that little sulfur is incorporated into solid grains in this environment. This is a rather puzzling observation unless Fe-sulfides are not produced in significant quantities in stellar outflows, or their lifetime in the ISM is very short due to rapid destruction. The main destruction mechanism is sputtering due to supernova shocks in the warm, diffuse ISM [10]. This process involves the reduction of Fe-sulfide with the production of Fe metal as a by-product and returning S to the gas phase. In order to test this hypothesis, we irradiated FeS and analyzed the resulting material using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM)

Aromatic Structure in Simulates Titan Aerosol

Observations of Titan by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) between 560 and 20 per centimeter (approximately 18 to 500 micrometers) have been used to infer the vertical variations of Titan's ice abundances, as well as those of the aerosol from the surface to an altitude of 300 km [1]. The aerosol has a broad emission feature centered approximately at 140 per centimeter (71 micrometers). As seen in Figure 1, this feature cannot be reproduced using currently available optical constants from laboratory-generated Titan aerosol analogs [2]. The far-IR is uniquely qualified for investigating low-energy vibrational motions within the lattice structures of COITIDlex aerosol. The feature observed by CIRS is broad, and does not likely arise from individual molecules, but rather is representative of the skeletal movements of macromolecules. Since Cassini's arrival at Titan, benzene (C6H6) has been detected in the atmosphere at ppm levels as well as ions that may be polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) [3]. We speculate that the feature may be a blended composite that can be identified with low-energy vibrations of two-dimensional lattice structures of large molecules, such as PAHs or nitrogenated aromatics. Such structures do not dominate the composition of analog materials generated from CH4 and N2 irradiation. We are performing studies forming aerosol analog via UV irradiation of aromatic precursors - specifically C6H6 - to understand how the unique chemical architecture of the products will influence the observable aerosol characteristics. The optical and chemical properties of the aromatic analog will be compared to those formed from CH4/N2 mixtures, with a focus on the as-yet unidentified far-IR absorbance feature. Preliminary results indicate that the photochemically-formed aromatic aerosol has distinct chemical composition, and may incorporate nitrogen either into the ring structure or adjoined chemical groups. These compositional differences are demonstrated in the aerosol mass spectra shown in Figure 2. The aromatic aerosol also demonstrates strong chemical reactivity when exposed to laboratory air, indicating substantial stored chemical potential. Oxidatoin and solubility studies wil be presented and implicatoins for prebiotic chemistry o nTitan will be discussed

Mathematical modeling of cell population dynamics in the colonic crypt and in colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer is initiated in colonic crypts. A succession of genetic mutations or epigenetic changes can lead to homeostasis in the crypt being overcome, and subsequent unbounded growth. We consider the dynamics of a single colorectal crypt by using a compartmental approach [Tomlinson IPM, Bodmer WF (1995) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 92: 11130-11134], which accounts for populations of stem cells, differential cells, and transit cells. That original model made the simplifying assumptions that each cell popuation divides synchronously, but we relax these assumptions by adopting an age-structured approach that models asynchronous cell division, and by using a continuum model. We discuss two mechanims that could regulate the growth of cell numbers and maintain the equilibrium that is normally observed in the crypt. The first will always maintain an equilibrium for all parameter values, whereas the second can allow unbounded proliferation if the net per capita growth rates are large enough. Results show that an increase in cell renewal, which is equivalent to a failure of programmed cell death or of differentiation, can lead to the growth of cancers. The second model can be used to explain the long lag phases in tumor growth, during which news, higher equilibria are reached, before unlimited growth in cell number ensues

Compositional and Microstructural Evolution of Olivine Under Multiple-Cycle Pulsed Laser Irradiation as Revealed by FIB/Field-Emission TEM

The use of pulsed laser irradiation to simulate the short duration, high-energy conditions characteristic of micrometeorite impacts is now an established approach in experimental space weathering studies. The laser generates both melt and vapor deposits that contain nanophase metallic Fe (npFe(sup 0)) grains with size distributions and optical properties similar to those in natural impact-generated melt and vapor deposits. There remains uncertainty, however, about how well lasers simulate the mechanical work and internal (thermal) energy partitioning that occurs in actual impacts. We are currently engaged in making a direct comparison between the products of laser irradiation and experimental/natural hypervelocity impacts. An initial step reported here is to use analytical SEM and TEM is to attain a better understanding of how the microstructure and composition of laser deposits evolve over multiple cycles of pulsed laser irradiation