Effects of rising temperatures and [CO2] on the physiology of tropical forest trees

Using a mixture of observations and climate model outputs and a simple parametrization of leaf-level photosynthesis incorporating known temperature sensitivities, we find no evidence for tropical forests currently existing ‘dangerously close’ to their optimum temperature range. Our model suggests that although reductions in photosynthetic rate at leaf temperatures (TL) above 30°C may occur, these are almost entirely accountable for in terms of reductions in stomatal conductance in response to higher leaf-to-air vapour pressure deficits D. This is as opposed to direct effects of TL on photosynthetic metabolism. We also find that increases in photosynthetic rates associated with increases in ambient [CO2] over forthcoming decades should more than offset any decline in photosynthetic productivity due to higher D or TL or increased autotrophic respiration rates as a consequence of higher tissue temperatures. We also find little direct evidence that tropical forests should not be able to respond to increases in [CO2] and argue that the magnitude and pattern of increases in forest dynamics across Amazonia observed over the last few decades are consistent with a [CO2]-induced stimulation of tree growth

From Egyptian barque oracles to Artificial Swarm Intelligence via the Ouija (or wDA?) board

Ancient Egyptian barque oracles had a recent counterpart in the phenomenon of “table turning”, an occult process experienced in Nineteenth Century Spiritualist séances. The séance table’s small scale successor, the Talking Board, ensured that oracular locomotion persisted throughout the Twentieth Century; its best known embodiment – the Ouija board – remains popular even today. Scientific studies have helped to elucidate the behavioural drivers that govern table turning and Ouija sessions; these reveal that good faith groups are dominated by an auto suggestive process known as the ideomotor response (IMR). Learnings from such studies suggest that a hierarchy of up to four drivers (two conscious and conditional, two unconscious and continuous) would have underpinned the significance laden movements of Egyptian barque oracles. Such oracles constitute an early form of what is today called Artificial Swarm Intelligence (ASI); “human swarming” enables networks of individuals whose interactions are governed by real time feedback loops to converge quickly on optimal solutions. The paper also examines the possibility that Ouija – the name bestowed in 1891 upon the “Egyptian luck board” that went on to dominate the Talking Board market – might genuinely reflect an ancient Egyptian word with the approximate sense of “good luck”, just as the board’s pioneers claimed it did

Th/K and Th/U ratios from spectral gamma-ray surveys improve the mapped definition of subsurface structures

Spectral gamma-ray data can be obtained by non-destructive, automated, rapid and inexpensive survey methods. Previous studies utilise only total count, or total count as well as K, U and Th data. This work examines the use of Th/K and Th/U ratios to define the subsurface extent of partially-buried features at the centimeter to meter scale. On-site results are presented from two case studies as two-dimensional cross-sections. Changes in Th/K and Th/U ratios coincide with the known location of buried structures to within 10cm horizontal resolution. Gradual changes in total count, K, U and Th measurements give a lower horizontal accuracy of 30cmto1m. Grids of data were manipulated in ArcGIS™ using a thin plate spline function to maximise information use and provide ‘easy to interpret’ maps of the survey areas. Unlike total count or individual element maps, Th/K and Th/U ratio maps can be compared to the known location of subsurface structures, vindicating the use of ratio cross-sections and maps in archaeological, geotechnical and forensic applications. It is concluded that the capacity to observe sub-surface features is enhanced through the use of Th/K and Th/U ratios

Estimating local car ownership models

Many studies in the transport demand literature have shown that income is an important factor in determining how many cars a household owns. When the models used to measure the strength of this relationship are estimated on cross-sectional data, they typically yield one overall value as the estimate. Local circumstances will, however, vary. This paper illustrates the use of the Geographically Weighted Regression technique to estimate the individual strength of this relationship for each of the United Kingdom electoral wards. Use of this type of model enables a wards’ income elasticity to be based on both the local estimate of the strength of this relationship and the current local level of car ownership. How the use of this local elasticity changes future forecasts of the size of the vehicle fleet is illustrated

Using step width to compare locomotor biomechanics between extinct, non-avian theropod dinosaurs and modern obligate bipeds

How extinct, non-avian theropod dinosaurs locomoted is a subject of considerable interest, as is the manner in which it evolved on the line leading to birds. Fossil footprints provide the most direct evidence for answering these questions. In this study, step width—the mediolateral (transverse) distance between successive footfalls—was investigated with respect to speed (stride length) in non-avian theropod trackways of Late Triassic age. Comparable kinematic data were also collected for humans and 11 species of ground-dwelling birds. Permutation tests of the slope on a plot of step width against stride length showed that step width decreased continuously with increasing speed in the extinct theropods (p < 0.001), as well as the five tallest bird species studied (p < 0.01). Humans, by contrast, showed an abrupt decrease in step width at the walk–run transition. In the modern bipeds, these patterns reflect the use of either a discontinuous locomotor repertoire, characterized by distinct gaits (humans), or a continuous locomotor repertoire, where walking smoothly transitions into running (birds). The non-avian theropods are consequently inferred to have had a continuous locomotor repertoire, possibly including grounded running. Thus, features that characterize avian terrestrial locomotion had begun to evolve early in theropod history

Leading from the engine room

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018. This paper explores relationships and challenges facing teams creating simulation-based learning environments. Drawing on our experience of governance within Australian Indigenous cultures and specific work incidents as case studies, we explore tensions, triumphs and insights occurring during collaborative ventures intended to produce online learning activities. Our view is ‘from the engine room’ - at that point where technology and design expertise reframe creative ‘story boards’ into ‘interactive learning experiences’ requiring productive harnessing of diversity. Creation of scenario-based learning environments requires an understanding of specific content, along with the array of available learning pathways. Appreciating pitfalls likely to hinder the design process is vital. Scenarios use specific, and specialized artefacts and technologies to create interactive learning environments; computer-based technologies make the process even more complex, requiring highly specialized skills to contribute particular elements. More and more people are involved, and a greater number of specializations contribute to the final product. We draw on Human Computer Interaction practices to explore designer - developer interfaces and explore what may be involved in developing aware, conscious leadership of this emergent complexity. Words penned by Harrison (1967) aptly encapsulate our theme - “We were talking about the space between us all”

Quality of Life with Late-Onset Pompe Disease: Qualitative Interviews and General Public Utility Estimation in the United Kingdom

Background: Late-onset Pompe disease (LOPD) is a rare, progressive neuromuscular condition typically characterized by weakness of skeletal muscles, including those involved in respiration and diaphragmatic dysfunction. Individuals with LOPD typically eventually require mobility and/or ventilatory support. / Objectives: This study aimed to develop health state vignettes and estimate health state utility values for LOPD in the United Kingdom. / Methods: Vignettes were developed for 7 health states of LOPD with states defined in terms of mobility and/or ventilatory support. Vignettes were drafted based on patient-reported outcome data from the Phase 3 PROPEL trial (NCT03729362) and supplemented by a literature review. Qualitative interviews with individuals living with LOPD and clinical experts were conducted to explore the health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) impact of LOPD and to review the draft vignettes. Vignettes were finalized following a second round of interviews with individuals living with LOPD and used in health state valuation exercises with people of the UK population. Participants rated the health states using the EQ-5D-5L, visual analog scale, and time trade-off interviews. / Results: Twelve individuals living with LOPD and 2 clinical experts were interviewed. Following the interviews, 4 new statements were added regarding dependence on others, bladder control problems, balance issues/fear of falling, and frustration. One hundred interviews with a representative UK population sample were completed. Mean time trade-off utilities ranged from 0.754 (SD = 0.31) (no support) to 0.132 (SD = 0.50) (invasive ventilatory and mobility support-dependent). Similarly, EQ- 5D-5L utilities ranged from 0.608 (SD = 0.12) to -0.078 (SD = 0.22). / Discussion: The utilities obtained in the study are consistent with utilities reported in the literature (0.670-0.853 for nonsupport state). The vignette content was based on robust quantitative and qualitative evidence and captured the main HRQoL impacts of LOPD. The general public rated the health states consistently lower with increasing disease progression. There was greater uncertainty around utility estimates for the severe states, suggesting that participants found it harder to rate them. / Conclusion: This study provides utility estimates for LOPD that can be used in economic modeling of treatments for LOPD. Our findings highlight the high disease burden of LOPD and reinforce the societal value of slowing disease progression

Discovery of Reflection Nebulosity Around Five Vega-like Stars

Coronagraphic optical observations of six Vega-like stars reveal reflection nebulosities, five of which were previously unknown. The nebulosities illuminated by HD 4881, HD 23362, HD 23680, HD 26676, and HD 49662 resemble that of the Pleiades, indicating an interstellar origin for dust grains. The reflection nebulosity around HD 123160 has a double-arm morphology, but no disk-like feature is seen as close as 2.5 arcsec from the star in K-band adaptive optics data. We demonstrate that uniform density dust clouds surrounding HD 23362, HD 23680 and HD 123160 can account for the observed 12-100 micron spectral energy distributions. For HD 4881, HD 26676, and HD 49662 an additional emission source, such as from a circumstellar disk or non-equilibrium grain heating, is required to fit the 12-25 micron data. These results indicate that in some cases, particularly for Vega-like stars located beyond the Local Bubble (>100 pc), the dust responsible for excess thermal emission may originate from the interstellar medium rather than from a planetary debris system.Comment: The Astrophysical Journal, in press for March, 2002 (32 pages, 13 figures

CWRML: representing crop wild relative conservation and use data in XML

Background Crop wild relatives are wild species that are closely related to crops. They are valuable as potential gene donors for crop improvement and may help to ensure food security for the future. However, they are becoming increasingly threatened in the wild and are inadequately conserved, both in situ and ex situ. Information about the conservation status and utilisation potential of crop wild relatives is diverse and dispersed, and no single agreed standard exists for representing such information; yet, this information is vital to ensure these species are effectively conserved and utilised. The European Community-funded project, European Crop Wild Relative Diversity Assessment and Conservation Forum, determined the minimum information requirements for the conservation and utilisation of crop wild relatives and created the Crop Wild Relative Information System, incorporating an eXtensible Markup Language (XML) schema to aid data sharing and exchange. Results Crop Wild Relative Markup Language (CWRML) was developed to represent the data necessary for crop wild relative conservation and ensure that they can be effectively utilised for crop improvement. The schema partitions data into taxon-, site-, and population-specific elements, to allow for integration with other more general conservation biology schemata which may emerge as accepted standards in the future. These elements are composed of sub-elements, which are structured in order to facilitate the use of the schema in a variety of crop wild relative conservation and use contexts. Pre-existing standards for data representation in conservation biology were reviewed and incorporated into the schema as restrictions on element data contents, where appropriate. Conclusion CWRML provides a flexible data communication format for representing in situ and ex situ conservation status of individual taxa as well as their utilisation potential. The development of the schema highlights a number of instances where additional standards-development may be valuable, particularly with regard to the representation of population-specific data and utilisation potential. As crop wild relatives are intrinsically no different to other wild plant species there is potential for the inclusion of CWRML data elements in the emerging standards for representation of biodiversity data

Characterizing the Adaptive Optics Off-Axis Point-Spread Function - I: A Semi-Empirical Method for Use in Natural-Guide-Star Observations

Even though the technology of adaptive optics (AO) is rapidly maturing, calibration of the resulting images remains a major challenge. The AO point-spread function (PSF) changes quickly both in time and position on the sky. In a typical observation the star used for guiding will be separated from the scientific target by 10" to 30". This is sufficient separation to render images of the guide star by themselves nearly useless in characterizing the PSF at the off-axis target position. A semi-empirical technique is described that improves the determination of the AO off-axis PSF. The method uses calibration images of dense star fields to determine the change in PSF with field position. It then uses this information to correct contemporaneous images of the guide star to produce a PSF that is more accurate for both the target position and the time of a scientific observation. We report on tests of the method using natural-guide-star AO systems on the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope and Lick Observatory Shane Telescope, augmented by simple atmospheric computer simulations. At 25" off-axis, predicting the PSF full width at half maximum using only information about the guide star results in an error of 60%. Using an image of a dense star field lowers this error to 33%, and our method, which also folds in information about the on-axis PSF, further decreases the error to 19%.Comment: 29 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in the PAS