Utilising Bayesian networks to demonstrate the potential consequences of a fuel gas release from an offshore gas-driven turbine

This research proposes the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of the integrity of an offshore gas driven turbine, used for electrical power generation. The focus of the research is centred on the potential release of fuel gas from a turbine and the potential consequences that follow the said release, such as fire, explosion and damage to equipment within the electrical generation module. The Bayesian network demonstrates the interactions of potential initial events and failures, hazards, barriers and consequences involved in a fuel gas release. This model allows for quantitative analysis to demonstrate partial verification of the model. The verification of the model is demonstrated in a series of test cases and through sensitivity analysis. Test case 1 demonstrates the effects of individual and combined control system failures within the fuel gas release model; 2 demonstrates the effects of the 100% probability of a gas release on the Bayesian network model, along with the effect of the gas detection system not functioning; and 3 demonstrates the effects of inserting evidence as a consequence and observing the effects on prior nodes.© IMechE 2018

Governing shipping externalities : Baltic ports in the process of SOx emission reduction

This paper analyses the debate which has unfolded in the Baltic Sea Region regarding the reduction of sulphur content in vessel fuels, in order to illustrate how tightening environmental regulation challenges traditional forms of maritime governance. Using an interactive governance approach, this study reconstructs the process of sulphur emission reduction as a complex multi-stakeholder interaction in multiple contexts. The empirical investigation has drawn on documentary material from around the Baltic region, including Russia, and has applied the method of qualitative content analysis. The empirical study focuses on two interlinked questions: (1) How sulphur emission reduction policies are being anticipated by maritime industry, in particular by Baltic ports and (2) How port adaptation strategies are tied into Baltic local and energy contexts. Addressing these questions highlights the role of polycentricity in shipping governance and explains how the same universal international regulations can produce varying patterns of governance. The paper concludes that policy-making shall take an account of the fact that the globalized shipping industry is nevertheless locally and sectorally embedded.Peer reviewe