Reasoning about the Reliability of Diverse Two-Channel Systems in which One Channel is "Possibly Perfect"

This paper considers the problem of reasoning about the reliability of fault-tolerant systems with two "channels" (i.e., components) of which one, A, supports only a claim of reliability, while the other, B, by virtue of extreme simplicity and extensive analysis, supports a plausible claim of "perfection." We begin with the case where either channel can bring the system to a safe state. We show that, conditional upon knowing pA (the probability that A fails on a randomly selected demand) and pB (the probability that channel B is imperfect), a conservative bound on the probability that the system fails on a randomly selected demand is simply pA.pB. That is, there is conditional independence between the events "A fails" and "B is imperfect." The second step of the reasoning involves epistemic uncertainty about (pA, pB) and we show that under quite plausible assumptions, a conservative bound on system pfd can be constructed from point estimates for just three parameters. We discuss the feasibility of establishing credible estimates for these parameters. We extend our analysis from faults of omission to those of commission, and then combine these to yield an analysis for monitored architectures of a kind proposed for aircraft

Software fault-freeness and reliability predictions

Many software development practices aim at ensuring that software is correct, or fault-free. In safety critical applications, requirements are in terms of probabilities of certain behaviours, e.g. as associated to the Safety Integrity Levels of IEC 61508. The two forms of reasoning - about evidence of correctness and about probabilities of certain failures -are rarely brought together explicitly. The desirability of using claims of correctness has been argued by many authors, but not been taken up in practice. We address how to combine evidence concerning probability of failure together with evidence pertaining to likelihood of fault-freeness, in a Bayesian framework. We present novel results to make this approach practical, by guaranteeing reliability predictions that are conservative (err on the side of pessimism), despite the difficulty of stating prior probability distributions for reliability parameters. This approach seems suitable for practical application to assessment of certain classes of safety critical systems

Bioethanol from poplar: a commercially viable alternative to fossil fuel in the European Union

Background: The European Union has made it a strategic objective to develop its biofuels market in order to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, to help mitigate climate change and to address energy insecurity within the transport sector. Despite targets set at national and supranational levels, lignocellulosic bioethanol production has yet to be widely commercialized in the European Union. Here, we use techno-economic modeling to compare the price of bioethanol produced from short rotation coppice (SRC) poplar feedstocks under two leading processing technologies in five European countries. Results: Our evaluation shows that the type of processing technology and varying national costs between countries results in a wide range of bioethanol production prices ((sic)0.275 to 0.727/l). The lowest production prices for bioethanol were found in countries that had cheap feedstock costs and high prices for renewable electricity. Taxes and other costs had a significant influence on fuel prices at the petrol station, and therefore the presence and amount of government support for bioethanol was a major factor determining the competitiveness of bioethanol with conventional fuel. In a forward-looking scenario, genetically engineering poplar with a reduced lignin content showed potential to enhance the competitiveness of bioethanol with conventional fuel by reducing overall costs by approximately 41% in four out of the five countries modeled. However, the possible wider phenotypic traits of advanced poplars needs to be fully investigated to ensure that these do not unintentionally negate the cost savings indicated. Conclusions: Through these evaluations, we highlight the key bottlenecks within the bioethanol supply chain from the standpoint of various stakeholders. For producers, technologies that are best suited to the specific feedstock composition and national policies should be optimized. For policymakers, support schemes that benefit emerging bioethanol producers and allow renewable fuel to be economically competitive with petrol should be established. Finally, for researchers, better control over plant genetic engineering and advanced breeding and its consequential economic impact would bring valuable contributions towards developing an economically sustainable bioethanol market within the European Union

Absorption, Photoluminescence and Resonant Rayleigh Scattering Probes of Condensed Microcavity Polaritons

We investigate and compare different optical probes of a condensed state of microcavity polaritons in expected experimental conditions of non-resonant pumping. We show that the energy- and momentum-resolved resonant Rayleigh signal provide a distinctive probe of condensation as compared to, e.g., photoluminescence emission. In particular, the presence of a collective sound mode both above and below the chemical potential can be observed, as well as features directly related to the density of states of particle-hole like excitations. Both resonant Rayleigh response and the absorption and photoluminescence, are affected by the presence of quantum well disorder, which introduces a distribution of oscillator strengths between quantum well excitons at a given energy and cavity photons at a given momentum. As we show, this distribution makes it important that in the condensed regime, scattering by disorder is taken into account to all orders. We show that, in the low density linear limit, this approach correctly describes inhomogeneous broadening of polaritons. In addition, in this limit, we extract a linear blue-shift of the lower polariton versus density, with a coefficient determined by temperature and by a characteristic disorder length.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures; minor correction

Examination of Bayesian belief network for safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

We report here on a continuation of work on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)model described in [Fenton, Littlewood et al. 1998]. As explained in the previous deliverable, our model concerns one part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems. We have produced a first complete, functioning version of our BBN model by eliciting a large numerical node probability table (NPT) required for our ‘Design Process Performance’ variable. The requirement for such large numerical NPTs poses some difficult questions about how, in general, large NPTs should be elicited from domain experts. We report about the methods we have devised to support the expert in building and validating a BBN. On the one hand, we have proceeded by eliciting approximate descriptions of the expert’s probabilistic beliefs, in terms of properties like stochastic orderings among distributions; on the other hand, we have explored ways of presenting to the expert visual and algebraic descriptions of relations among variables in the BBN, to assist the expert in an ongoing assessment of the validity of the BBN