Confidence: Its role in dependability cases for risk assessment

Society is increasingly requiring quantitative assessment of risk and associated dependability cases. Informally, a dependability case comprises some reasoning, based on assumptions and evidence, that supports a dependability claim at a particular level of confidence. In this paper we argue that a quantitative assessment of claim confidence is necessary for proper assessment of risk. We discuss the way in which confidence depends upon uncertainty about the underpinnings of the dependability case (truth of assumptions, correctness of reasoning, strength of evidence), and propose that probability is the appropriate measure of uncertainty. We discuss some of the obstacles to quantitative assessment of confidence (issues of composability of subsystem claims; of the multi-dimensional, multi-attribute nature of dependability claims; of the difficult role played by dependence between different kinds of evidence, assumptions, etc). We show that, even in simple cases, the confidence in a claim arising from a dependability case can be surprisingly low

Solitonic Phase in Manganites

Whenever a symmetry in the ground state of a system is broken, topological defects will exist. These defects are essential for understanding phase transitions in low dimensional systems[1]. Excitingly in some unique condensed matter systems the defects are also the low energy electric charge excitations. This is the case of skyrmions in quantum Hall ferromagnets[2] and solitons in polymers[3]. Orbital order present in several transitions metal compounds[4-6] could give rise to topological defects. Here we argue that the topological defects in orbital ordered half doped manganites are orbital solitons. Surprisingly, these solitons carry a fractional charge of $\pm$e/2, and whenever extra charge is added to the system an array of solitons is formed and an incommensurate solitonic phase occurs. The striking experimental asymmetry in the phase diagram as electrons or holes are added to half doped manganites[7-12], is explained by the energy difference between positive and negative charged solitons. Contrary to existent models that explain coexistence between phases in manganites as an extrinsic effect[13-14], the presence of inhomogeneities is naturally explained by the existence of solitonic phases. The occurrence and relevance of orbital solitons might be a general phenomena in strongly correlated systems.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures include

Hopf algebras and characters of classical groups

Schur functions provide an integral basis of the ring of symmetric functions. It is shown that this ring has a natural Hopf algebra structure by identifying the appropriate product, coproduct, unit, counit and antipode, and their properties. Characters of covariant tensor irreducible representations of the classical groups GL(n), O(n) and Sp(n) are then expressed in terms of Schur functions, and the Hopf algebra is exploited in the determination of group-subgroup branching rules and the decomposition of tensor products. The analysis is carried out in terms of n-independent universal characters. The corresponding rings, CharGL, CharO and CharSp, of universal characters each have their own natural Hopf algebra structure. The appropriate product, coproduct, unit, counit and antipode are identified in each case.Comment: 9 pages. Uses jpconf.cls and jpconf11.clo. Presented by RCK at SSPCM'07, Myczkowce, Poland, Sept 200

Toward a Formalism for Conservative Claims about the Dependability of Software-Based Systems

In recent work, we have argued for a formal treatment of confidence about the claims made in dependability cases for software-based systems. The key idea underlying this work is "the inevitability of uncertainty": It is rarely possible to assert that a claim about safety or reliability is true with certainty. Much of this uncertainty is epistemic in nature, so it seems inevitable that expert judgment will continue to play an important role in dependability cases. Here, we consider a simple case where an expert makes a claim about the probability of failure on demand (pfd) of a subsystem of a wider system and is able to express his confidence about that claim probabilistically. An important, but difficult, problem then is how such subsystem (claim, confidence) pairs can be propagated through a dependability case for a wider system, of which the subsystems are components. An informal way forward is to justify, at high confidence, a strong claim, and then, conservatively, only claim something much weaker: "I'm 99 percent confident that the pfd is less than 10-5, so it's reasonable to be 100 percent confident that it is less than 10-3." These conservative pfds of subsystems can then be propagated simply through the dependability case of the wider system. In this paper, we provide formal support for such reasoning

Spin noise of itinerant fermions

We develop a theory of spin noise spectroscopy of itinerant, noninteracting, spin-carrying fermions in different regimes of temperature and disorder. We use kinetic equations for the density matrix in spin variables. We find a general result with a clear physical interpretation, and discuss its dependence on temperature, the size of the system, and applied magnetic field. We consider two classes of experimental probes: 1. electron-spin-resonance (ESR)-type measurements, in which the probe response to a uniform magnetization increases linearly with the volume sampled, and 2. optical Kerr/Faraday rotation-type measurements, in which the probe response to a uniform magnetization increases linearly with the length of the light propagation in the sample, but is independent of the cross section of the light beam. Our theory provides a framework for interpreting recent experiments on atomic gases and conduction electrons in semiconductors and provides a baseline for identifying the effects of interactions on spin noise spectroscopy

Changes in the Welfare of an Injured Working Farm Dog Assessed Using the Five Domains Model

The present structured, systematic and comprehensive welfare evaluation of an injured working farm dog using the Five Domains Model is of interest in its own right. It is also an example for others wanting to apply the Model to welfare evaluations in different species and contexts. Six stages of a fictitious scenario involving the dog are considered: (1) its on-farm circumstances before one hind leg is injured; (2) its entanglement in barbed wire, cutting it free and transporting it to a veterinary clinic; (3) the initial veterinary examination and overnight stay; (4) amputation of the limb and immediate post-operative recovery; (5) its first four weeks after rehoming to a lifestyle block; and (6) its subsequent life as an amputee and pet. Not all features of the scenario represent average-to-good practice; indeed, some have been selected to indicate poor practice. It is shown how the Model can draw attention to areas of animal welfare concern and, importantly, to how welfare enhancement may be impeded or facilitated. Also illustrated is how the welfare implications of a sequence of events can be traced and evaluated, and, in relation to specific situations, how the degrees of welfare compromise and enhancement may be graded. In addition, the choice of a companion animal, contrasting its welfare status as a working dog and pet, and considering its treatment in a veterinary clinical setting, help to highlight various welfare impacts of some practices. By focusing attention on welfare problems, the Model can guide the implementation of remedies, including ways of promoting positive welfare states. Finally, wider applications of the Five Domains Model are noted: by enabling both negative and positive welfare-relevant experiences to be graded, the Model can be applied to quality of life assessments and end-of-life decisions and, with particular regard to negative experiences, the Model can also help to strengthen expert witness testimony during prosecutions for serious ill treatment of animals