Climate Change and San Francisco Bay-Delta Tidal Wetlands

Climate change will affect tidal wetlands with higher rates of sea-level rise and higher concentrations of salt in brackish and freshwater tidal systems, in addition to causing increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, warmer temperatures, and shifts in precipitation. In the San Francisco Bay–Delta, the areas most likely to be affected—brackish and freshwater tidal wetlands—are also the sites with the majority of endemic plant species and the greater biodiversity and productivity. Effects on the San Francisco Bay– Delta estuary are complex and difficult to predict, but a few things are clear. Biodiversity of the tidal wetland system in the San Francisco Bay–Delta region will decline, with subsequent effects on ecosystem functioning and services. Altered plant production, physiological tolerances, and shifts in rates of mortality will modify wetland plant communities in ways not yet predictable. Lower ecosystem productivity from salinity increases will affect both primary and detrital-based food webs. Such changes will cascade via the food webs into invertebrate, bird, and pelagic systems. Tidal wetlands are especially sensitive to processes that climate change will alter. Several of these altered processes are exacerbated by water diversions from the Delta

Evaluating Tidal Marsh Sustainability in the Face of Sea-Level Rise: A Hybrid Modeling Approach Applied to San Francisco Bay

Tidal marshes will be threatened by increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next century. Managers seek guidance on whether existing and restored marshes will be resilient under a range of potential future conditions, and on prioritizing marsh restoration and conservation activities.Building upon established models, we developed a hybrid approach that involves a mechanistic treatment of marsh accretion dynamics and incorporates spatial variation at a scale relevant for conservation and restoration decision-making. We applied this model to San Francisco Bay, using best-available elevation data and estimates of sediment supply and organic matter accumulation developed for 15 Bay subregions. Accretion models were run over 100 years for 70 combinations of starting elevation, mineral sediment, organic matter, and SLR assumptions. Results were applied spatially to evaluate eight Bay-wide climate change scenarios.Model results indicated that under a high rate of SLR (1.65 m/century), short-term restoration of diked subtidal baylands to mid marsh elevations (-0.2 m MHHW) could be achieved over the next century with sediment concentrations greater than 200 mg/L. However, suspended sediment concentrations greater than 300 mg/L would be required for 100-year mid marsh sustainability (i.e., no elevation loss). Organic matter accumulation had minimal impacts on this threshold. Bay-wide projections of marsh habitat area varied substantially, depending primarily on SLR and sediment assumptions. Across all scenarios, however, the model projected a shift in the mix of intertidal habitats, with a loss of high marsh and gains in low marsh and mudflats.Results suggest a bleak prognosis for long-term natural tidal marsh sustainability under a high-SLR scenario. To minimize marsh loss, we recommend conserving adjacent uplands for marsh migration, redistributing dredged sediment to raise elevations, and concentrating restoration efforts in sediment-rich areas. To assist land managers, we developed a web-based decision support tool (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr)

Accuracy and precision of tidal wetland soil carbon mapping in the conterminous United States

© The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 8 (2018): 9478, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-26948-7.Tidal wetlands produce long-term soil organic carbon (C) stocks. Thus for carbon accounting purposes, we need accurate and precise information on the magnitude and spatial distribution of those stocks. We assembled and analyzed an unprecedented soil core dataset, and tested three strategies for mapping carbon stocks: applying the average value from the synthesis to mapped tidal wetlands, applying models fit using empirical data and applied using soil, vegetation and salinity maps, and relying on independently generated soil carbon maps. Soil carbon stocks were far lower on average and varied less spatially and with depth than stocks calculated from available soils maps. Further, variation in carbon density was not well-predicted based on climate, salinity, vegetation, or soil classes. Instead, the assembled dataset showed that carbon density across the conterminous united states (CONUS) was normally distributed, with a predictable range of observations. We identified the simplest strategy, applying mean carbon density (27.0 kg C m−3), as the best performing strategy, and conservatively estimated that the top meter of CONUS tidal wetland soil contains 0.72 petagrams C. This strategy could provide standardization in CONUS tidal carbon accounting until such a time as modeling and mapping advancements can quantitatively improve accuracy and precision.Synthesis efforts were funded by NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS; NNH14AY67I), USGS LandCarbon and the Smithsonian Institution. J.R.H. was additionally supported by the NSF-funded Coastal Carbon Research Coordination Network while completing this manuscript (DEB-1655622). J.M.S. coring efforts were funded by NSF (EAR-1204079). B.P.H. coring efforts were funded by Earth Observatory (Publication Number 197)

EMERGING ISSUES FOR THE RESTORATION OF TIDAL MARSH ECOSYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF PREDICTED CLIMATE CHANGE

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Dataset: Mangrove, tidal wetland and seagrass soil carbon stocks along latitudinal gradients

Coastal and marine ecosystems have the potential to produce and sequester organic carbon at rates that exceed tropical and temperate forests. Recent recognition of the value of these ecosystems as significant carbon sinks has strengthened worldwide interest in their management, conservation, and restoration for the purpose of climate change mitigation. However, many gaps in understanding carbon sequestration in coastal ecosystems remain, creating challenges for the application coastal ecosystem carbon research at local, regional and global scales. A major limitation is the fact that most research on this topic has been conducted in relatively few temperate and tropical ecosystems, despite a tremendous amount of spatial variability in carbon stocks across gradients of climate, hydrology, geomorphology, and tide range. Additionally, a standardized protocol has not been widely utilized, which would enable more rigorous comparison across ecosystems and climates. The main objective of this research was to apply a standardized method for documenting carbon storage in vegetated coastal ecosystems along latitudinal gradients, including mangroves, tidal wetlands, and seagrass beds. Field sites were located in Twin Cays, Belize, three islands in Bocas del Toro, Panama, the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, Wachapreague, Virginia, three sites in San Francisco Bay, California, and three sites in Kachemak Bay, Alaska. At each mangrove and tidal wetland site, six deep soil cores were retrieved using an open faced gouge corer, ranging in depth from 70 to 496 cm and subsampled at set depth ranges. At each seagrass site, a one meter long piston corer was used to retrieve the core and subsampled using syringes. All samples were dried to a constant weight to determine dry bulk density. Samples were ground with a ball grinder and subsamples were burned in a muffle furnace to determine loss on ignition (LOI). For all seagrass samples, organic carbon was determined by differencing the percent carbon from ashed and unashed samples analyzed with an elemental analyzer. A subset of mangrove and tidal wetland samples were analyzed in an elemental analyzer to determine organic carbon and a relationship between LOI and percent carbon was determined and applied to the remaining samples. Total organic carbon was quantified with depth and summed for each core

Climate Change and San Francisco Bay-Delta Tidal Wetlands

Climate change will affect tidal wetlands with higher rates of sea-level rise and higher concentrations of salt in brackish and freshwater tidal systems, in addition to causing increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, warmer temperatures, and shifts in precipitation. In the San Francisco Bay–Delta, the areas most likely to be affected—brackish and freshwater tidal wetlands—are also the sites with the majority of endemic plant species and the greater biodiversity and productivity. Effects on the San Francisco Bay– Delta estuary are complex and difficult to predict, but a few things are clear. Biodiversity of the tidal wetland system in the San Francisco Bay–Delta region will decline, with subsequent effects on ecosystem functioning and services. Altered plant production, physiological tolerances, and shifts in rates of mortality will modify wetland plant communities in ways not yet predictable. Lower ecosystem productivity from salinity increases will affect both primary and detrital-based food webs. Such changes will cascade via the food webs into invertebrate, bird, and pelagic systems. Tidal wetlands are especially sensitive to processes that climate change will alter. Several of these altered processes are exacerbated by water diversions from the Delta.

Tidal Wetland Vegetation in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary

We analyzed tidal wetland vegetation patterns in the San Francisco Bay–Delta estuary (Bay–Delta) and discuss their significance for future conservation. Our objective was to conduct a balanced, random sample of six historic “remnant” tidal wetlands along a salinity gradient that ranged from southern San Pablo Bay to the lower Delta. We also wanted to compare diversity among these sites at five different scales, ranging from small subplots to total species per site. We randomly established twenty 0.1-ha plots at each site, and sampled ten 7-m2 circular subplots (subplot scale) in each plot for species presence and cover. We calculated total species per plot (plot scale) and total species per site (site scale) based on these subplot data. We calculated importance values for each species found in subplots based on frequency of occurrence and proportion of total cover at each site. In addition, we recorded species found within the 0.1-ha plot but not sampled in subplots (plot_all scale), and calculated the total species for each site based on these plot_all data (site_all scale). Thus, richness at each site was evaluated at five different scales that ranged from 7 m2 to 20,000 m2. We conducted a one-way ANOVA that compared mean richness among three scales with continuous data: subplot, plot, and plot_all. At lower estuary (San Pablo Bay) sites, richness values at these three scales were significantly lower than upper estuary (Suisun–Delta) sites. In Suisun–Delta sites, significant differences in richness varied, depending on sampling scale. Rush Ranch, a brackish wetland, had the highest average number of species per plot, whereas Sand Mound Slough, a freshwater wetland, had the highest average number of species at the subplot scale and the most total species at the site_all scale. Sand Mound Slough also had the highest number of unique species (22) compared to the other sites. We found a strong negative correlation (r2 = 0.99) between total species number and salinity (the most in the Delta at the lowest salinity, and the least at China Camp with the greatest salinity). Our analysis suggests the following conservation recommendations: (1) restore habitat for freshwater plant species diversity in the Delta; (2) restore transitional brackish wetland habitat in salt marshes of the San Pablo Bay and San Francisco Bay; and (3) focus on control of pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) in brackish marshes.