Did hardening occur among smokers in England from 2000 to 2010?

Aims To assess trends in the prevalence of ‘hardcore’ smoking in England between 2000 and 2010, and to examine associations between hardcore smoking and socio-demographic variables. Design Secondary analysis of data from the United Kingdom's General Lifestyle Survey (GLF) and the Health Survey for England (HSE). Setting Households in England. Participants Self-reported adult current smokers resident in England aged 26 years and over. Measurements Hardcore smokers were defined in three ways: smokers who do not want to quit (D1), those who ‘usually’ smoke their first cigarette of the day within 30 minutes of waking (D2) and a combination of D1 and D2, termed D3. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations between these variables and calendar year, age, sex and socio-economic status, and P-values for trends in odds were calculated. Findings The odds of smokers being defined as hardcore according to D3 increased over time in both the GLF (P < 0.001) and HSE (P = 0.04), even after adjusting for risk factors. Higher dependence (D2) was noted in men [odds ratio (OR): 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13–1.24], those of 50–59 years (OR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.80–2.09) and smokers in lower occupational groups (OR: 2.11, 95% CI: (1.97–2.26). Lack of motivation to quit (D1) increased with age and was more likely in men. Conclusions The proportion of smokers in England with both low motivation to quit and high dependence appears to have increased between 2000 and 2010, independently of risk factors, suggesting that ‘hardening’ may be occurring in this smoker populatio

Sumatra Seismogenic Zone - The role of input materials in shallow seismogenic slip and forearc plateau development

Drilling the input materials of the north Sumatran subduction zone, part of the 5000 km long Sunda subduction zone system and the origin of the Mw ~9.2 earthquake and tsunami that devastated coastal communities around the Indian Ocean in 2004, was designed to groundtruth the material properties causing unexpectedly shallow seismogenic slip and a distinctive forearc prism structure. The intriguing seismogenic behavior and forearc structure are not well explained by existing models or by relationships observed at margins where seismogenic slip typically occurs farther landward. The input materials of the north Sumatran subduction zone are a distinctively thick (as thick as 4–5 km) succession of primarily Bengal-Nicobar Fan–related sediments. The correspondence between the 2004 rupture location and the overlying prism plateau, as well as evidence for a strengthened input section, suggest the input materials are key to driving the distinctive slip behavior and long-term forearc structure. During Expedition 362, two sites on the Indian oceanic plate ~250 km southwest of the subduction zone, Sites U1480 and U1481, were drilled, cored, and logged to a maximum depth of 1500 meters below seafloor. The succession of sediment/rocks that will develop into the plate boundary detachment and will drive growth of the forearc were sampled, and their progressive mechanical, frictional, and hydrogeological property evolution will be analyzed through postcruise experimental and modeling studies. Large penetration depths with good core recovery and successful wireline logging in the challenging submarine fan materials will enable evaluation of the role of thick sedimentary subduction zone input sections in driving shallow slip and amplifying earthquake and tsunami magnitudes, at the Sunda subduction zone and globally at other subduction zones where submarine fan–influenced sections are being subducted

Exposure to point-of-sale displays and changes in susceptibility to smoking: findings from a cohort study of school students

Aims To investigate the association between frequency of visiting shops and noticing of tobacco point-of-sale (PoS) displays and the development of susceptibility to smoking, or smoking uptake, in secondary school students. Design Two surveys of a school based cohort study carried out in 2011 and 2012. Settings Nottinghamshire, UK. Participants A total of 2270 children aged 11–16 years from eight schools in Nottinghamshire. Measurements We investigated changes in susceptibility to smoking and smoking status in relation to frequency of visiting shops and noticing PoS displays and number of tobacco brands recognized, controlling for a range of potential confounders. Susceptibility to smoking was defined using a set of three questions covering intentions to try smoking, to smoke within the next year and likelihood of smoking if a best friend offered a cigarette. For the analysis we used multinomial logistic regression. Findings Among non-susceptible never smokers, noticing PoS displays more frequently was associated independently with an increased risk of becoming susceptible to smoking [adjusted relative risk ratio (RRR) = 1.74; 99% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13–2.69], but was not associated with smoking uptake. Recognizing a higher number of brands among non-susceptible never smokers doubled the risk of becoming susceptible to smoking and of becoming a smoker, but this did not have a significant effect on transition to smoking among susceptible never smokers. Frequency of noticing tobacco PoS displays was not associated significantly with smoking uptake among those who were susceptible never smokers at baseline. Conclusions Noticing tobacco point-of-sale displays more often and recognizing a higher number of tobacco brands is associated with an increased risk of becoming susceptible to smoking among adolescents in the United Kingdom, and recognizing a higher number of brands is associated positively with an increased risk of smoking uptake

How does the emotive content of televised anti-smoking mass media campaigns influence monthly calls to the NHS Stop Smoking helpline in England?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of different types of televised mass media campaign content on calls to the English NHS Stop Smoking helpline. METHOD: We used UK government-funded televised tobacco control campaigns from April 2005 to April 2010, categorised as either “positive” (eliciting happiness, satisfaction or hope) or “negative” (eliciting fear, guilt or disgust). We built negative binomial generalised additive models (GAMs) with linear and smooth terms for monthly per capita exposure to each campaign type (expressed as Gross Ratings Points, or GRPs) to determine their effect on calls in the same month. We adjusted for seasonal trends, inflation-adjusted weighted average cigarette prices and other tobacco control policies. RESULTS: We found non-linear associations between exposure to positive and negative emotive campaigns and quitline calls. The rate of calls increased more than 50% as exposure to positive campaigns increased from 0 to 400 GRPs (rate ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.25–2.01). An increase in calls in response to negative emotive campaigns was only apparent after monthly exposure exceeded 400 GRPs. CONCLUSION: While positive campaigns were most effective at increasing quitline calls, those with negative emotive content were also found to impact on call rates but only at higher levels of exposure

Characterizing tobacco control mass media campaigns in England

Aims To characterize publically funded tobacco control campaigns in England between 2004 and 2010 and to explore if they were in line with recommendations from the literature in terms of their content and intensity. International evidence suggests that campaigns which warn of the negative consequences of smoking and feature testimonials from real-life smokers are most effective, and that four exposures per head per month are required to reduce smoking prevalence. Design Characterization of tobacco control advertisements using a theoretically based framework designed to describe advertisement themes, informational and emotional content and style. Study of the intensity of advertising and exposure to different types of advertisement using data on population-level exposure to advertisements shown during the study period. Setting England. Measurements Television Ratings (TVRs), a standard measure of advertising exposure, were used to calculate exposure to each different campaign type. Findings A total of 89% of advertising was for smoking cessation; half of this advertising warned of the negative consequences of smoking, while half contained how-to-quit messages. Acted scenes featured in 72% of advertising, while only 17% featured real-life testimonials. Only 39% of months had at least four exposures to tobacco control campaigns per head. Conclusions A theory-driven approach enabled a systematic characterization of tobacco control advertisements in England. Between 2004 and 2010 only a small proportion of tobacco control advertisements utilized the most effective strategies—negative health effects messages and testimonials from real-life smokers. The intensity of campaigns was lower than international recommendations

Characterizing tobacco control mass media campaigns in England

Aims To characterize publically funded tobacco control campaigns in England between 2004 and 2010 and to explore if they were in line with recommendations from the literature in terms of their content and intensity. International evidence suggests that campaigns which warn of the negative consequences of smoking and feature testimonials from real-life smokers are most effective, and that four exposures per head per month are required to reduce smoking prevalence. Design Characterization of tobacco control advertisements using a theoretically based framework designed to describe advertisement themes, informational and emotional content and style. Study of the intensity of advertising and exposure to different types of advertisement using data on population-level exposure to advertisements shown during the study period. Setting England. Measurements Television Ratings (TVRs), a standard measure of advertising exposure, were used to calculate exposure to each different campaign type. Findings A total of 89% of advertising was for smoking cessation; half of this advertising warned of the negative consequences of smoking, while half contained how-to-quit messages. Acted scenes featured in 72% of advertising, while only 17% featured real-life testimonials. Only 39% of months had at least four exposures to tobacco control campaigns per head. Conclusions A theory-driven approach enabled a systematic characterization of tobacco control advertisements in England. Between 2004 and 2010 only a small proportion of tobacco control advertisements utilized the most effective strategies—negative health effects messages and testimonials from real-life smokers. The intensity of campaigns was lower than international recommendations

Late Miocene wood recovered in Bengal–Nicobar submarine fan sediments by IODP Expedition 362

Drilling and coring during IODP Expedition 362 in the eastern Indian Ocean encountered probably the largest wood fragment ever recovered in scientific ocean drilling. The wood is Late Miocene in age and buried beneath ∼800 m of siliciclastic mud and sand of the Bengal–Nicobar Fan. The wood is well preserved. Possible origins include the hinterland to the north, with sediment transported as part of the submarine fan sedimentary processes, or the Sunda subduction zone to the east, potentially as a megathrust tsunami deposit

Effectiveness of tobacco control television advertising in changing tobacco use in England: a population‐based cross‐sectional study

AIM: To examine whether government‐funded tobacco control television advertising shown in England between 2002 and 2010 reduced adult smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption. DESIGN: Analysis of monthly cross‐sectional surveys using generalised additive models. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: More than 80 000 adults aged 18 years or over living in England and interviewed in the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. MEASUREMENTS: Current smoking status, smokers' daily cigarette consumption, tobacco control gross rating points (GRPs—a measure of per capita advertising exposure combining reach and frequency), cigarette costliness, tobacco control activity, socio‐demographic variables. FINDINGS: After adjusting for other tobacco control policies, cigarette costliness and individual characteristics, we found that a 400‐point increase in tobacco control GRPs per month, equivalent to all adults in the population seeing four advertisements per month (although actual individual‐level exposure varies according to TV exposure), was associated with 3% lower odds of smoking 2 months later [odds ratio (OR) = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.95, 0.999] and accounted for 13.5% of the decline in smoking prevalence seen over this period. In smokers, a 400‐point increase in GRPs was associated with a 1.80% (95%CI = 0.47, 3.11) reduction in average cigarette consumption in the following month and accounted for 11.2% of the total decline in consumption over the period 2002–09. CONCLUSION: Government‐funded tobacco control television advertising shown in England between 2002 and 2010 was associated with reductions in smoking prevalence and smokers' cigarette consumption

Downgoing plate topography stopped rupture in the A.D. 2005 Sumatra earthquake

Earthquakes in subduction zones rupture the plate boundary fault in discrete segments. One factor that may control this segmentation is topography on the downgoing plate, although it is controversial whether this is by weakening or strengthening of the fault. We use multichannel seismic and gravity data to map the top of the downgoing oceanic crust offshore central Sumatra, Indonesia. Our survey spans a complex segment boundary zone between the southern termination of the Mw = 8.7, A.D. 2005 Simeulue-Nias earthquake, and the northern termination of a major 1797 earthquake that was partly filled by an Mw = 7.7 event in 1935. We identify an isolated 3 km basement high at the northern edge of this zone, close to the 2005 slip termination. The high probably originated at the Wharton fossil ridge, and is almost aseismic in both local and global data sets, suggesting that while the region around it may be weakened by fracturing and fluids, the basement high locally strengthens the plate boundary, stopping rupture propagation