General model selection estimation of a periodic regression with a Gaussian noise

This paper considers the problem of estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with an additive stationary gaussian noise having unknown correlation function. A general model selection procedure on the basis of arbitrary projective estimates, which does not need the knowledge of the noise correlation function, is proposed. A non-asymptotic upper bound for quadratic risk (oracle inequality) has been derived under mild conditions on the noise. For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise the risk upper bound is shown to be uniform in the nuisance parameter. In the case of gaussian white noise the constructed procedure has some advantages as compared with the procedure based on the least squares estimates (LSE). The asymptotic minimaxity of the estimates has been proved. The proposed model selection scheme is extended also to the estimation problem based on the discrete data applicably to the situation when high frequency sampling can not be provided

Almost sure exponential stability of numerical solutions for stochastic delay differential equations

Using techniques based on the continuous and discrete semimartingale convergence theorems, this paper investigates if numerical methods may reproduce the almost sure exponential stability of the exact solutions to stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs). The important feature of this technique is that it enables us to study the almost sure exponential stability of numerical solutions of SDDEs directly. This is significantly different from most traditional methods by which the almost sure exponential stability is derived from the moment stability by the Chebyshev inequality and the Borel–Cantelli lemma