10 research outputs found
Sleep among ShiftworkersâA Priority for Clinical Practice and Research in Occupational Health Nursing
The Pink Pulseless Hand: A Review of the Literature Regarding Management of Vascular Complications of Supracondylar Humeral Fractures in Children
Anaesthetic Management of a Caesarean Section in a Patient with Marfan's Syndrome and Aortic Dissection
Large-scale phylogenomic analysis reveals the phylogenetic position of the problematic taxon Protocruzia and unravels the deep phylogenetic affinities of the ciliate lineages
Aggregating expert judgement
In a paper written some 25 years ago, I distinguished three contexts in which
one might wish to combine expert judgements of uncertainty: the expert problem, the group
decision problem and the textbook problem. Over the intervening years much has been written
on the first two, which have the focus of a single decision context, but little on the third,
though the closely related field of meta-analysis has developed considerably. With many
developments in internet technology, particularly in relation to interactivity and communication,
the textbook problem is gaining in importance since data and expert judgements
can be made available over the web to be used by many different individuals to shape their
own beliefs in many different contexts. Moreover, applications such as web-based decision
support, e-participation and e-democracy are making algorithmic âsolutionsâ to the group
decision problem attractive, despite many results showing we know that such solutions are,
at best, rare and, at worst, illusory. In this paper I survey developments since my earlier paper
and note some unresolved issues. Then I turn to how expert judgement might be used within
web-based group decision support, as well as in e-participation and e-democracy contexts.
The latter points to a growing importance of the textbook problem and suggests that Cookeâs
principles for scientific reporting of expert judgement studies may need enhancing for such
studies to be used by a wider audience