Mathematical modelling of population and disease control in patchy environments

Natural populations may be managed by humans for a number of reasons, with mathematical modelling playing an increasing role in the planning of such management and control strategies. In an increasingly heterogeneous, or `patchy' landscape, the interactions between distinct groups of individuals must be taken into account to predict meaningful management strategies. Invasive control strategies, involving reduction of populations, such as harvesting or culling have been shown to cause a level of disturbance, or spatial perturbation, to these groups, a factor which is largely ignored in the modelling literature. \\ In this thesis, we present a series of deterministic, differential equation models which are used to investigate the impact of this disturbance in response to control. We address this impact in two scenarios. Firstly, in terms of a harvested population, where extinction must be prevented whilst maximising the yield obtained. Secondly, we address the impact of disturbance in an epidemic model, where the aim of the control strategy is to eradicate an endemic pathogen, or to prevent the invasion of a pathogen into a susceptible population. The movement of individuals between patches is modelled as both a constant rate, and a function which is increasing with population density. Finally, we discuss the `optimal' control strategy in this context. \\ We find that, whilst a population harvested from a coupled system is able to produce an inflated yield, this coupling can also cause the population to be more resistant to higher harvesting efforts, increasing the effort required to drive the population to extinction. Spatial perturbation raises this extinction threshold further still, providing a survival mechanism not only for the individuals that avoid being killed, but for the population as a whole. \\ With regards to the eradication of disease, we show that disturbance may either raise or lower the pathogen exclusion threshold depending on the particular characteristics of the pathogen. In certain cases, we have shown that spatial perturbation may force a population to be susceptible to an infectious invasion where its natural carrying capacity would prevent this

Galaxy Zoo Supernovae

This paper presents the first results from a new citizen science project: Galaxy Zoo Supernovae. This proof of concept project uses members of the public to identify supernova candidates from the latest generation of wide-field imaging transient surveys. We describe the Galaxy Zoo Supernovae operations and scoring model, and demonstrate the effectiveness of this novel method using imaging data and transients from the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF). We examine the results collected over the period April-July 2010, during which nearly 14,000 supernova candidates from PTF were classified by more than 2,500 individuals within a few hours of data collection. We compare the transients selected by the citizen scientists to those identified by experienced PTF scanners, and find the agreement to be remarkable - Galaxy Zoo Supernovae performs comparably to the PTF scanners, and identified as transients 93% of the ~130 spectroscopically confirmed SNe that PTF located during the trial period (with no false positive identifications). Further analysis shows that only a small fraction of the lowest signal-to-noise SN detections (r > 19.5) are given low scores: Galaxy Zoo Supernovae correctly identifies all SNe with > 8{\sigma} detections in the PTF imaging data. The Galaxy Zoo Supernovae project has direct applicability to future transient searches such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, by both rapidly identifying candidate transient events, and via the training and improvement of existing machine classifier algorithms.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, accepted MNRA

And the winner is: galaxy mass

The environment is known to affect the formation and evolution of galaxies considerably best visible through the well-known morphology-density relationship. We study the effect of environment on the evolution of early-type galaxies for a sample of 3,360 galaxies morphologically selected by visual inspection from the SDSS in the redshift range 0.05<z<0.06, and analyse luminosity-weighted age, metallicity, and alpha/Fe ratio as function of environment and galaxy mass. We find that on average 10 per cent of early-type galaxies are rejuvenated through minor recent star formation. This fraction increases with both decreasing galaxy mass and decreasing environmental density. However, the bulk of the population obeys a well-defined scaling of age, metallicity, and alpha/Fe ratio with galaxy mass that is independent of environment. Our results contribute to the growing evidence in the recent literature that galaxy mass is the major driver of galaxy formation. Even the morphology-density relationship may actually be mass-driven, as the consequence of an environment dependent characteristic galaxy mass coupled with the fact that late-type galaxy morphologies are more prevalent in low-mass galaxies.Comment: 5 pages, proceedings of JENAM 2010, Symposium 2: "Environment and the formation of galaxies: 30 years later

Sense-it: A Smartphone Toolkit for Citizen Inquiry Learning

We describe a toolkit for Android smartphones and tablets that enables a user to access all the sensors available on the device. Data from individual sensors can be viewed as dynamic graphs. Output from one or more sensors can be recorded to a spreadsheet, with the sampling rate set by the learner. As a tool for inquiry learning, the sensors can be linked to ‘missions’ on the nQuire-it website, allowing learners to sample and share data for collaborative crowd-sourced investigations. Four nQuire-it missions have employed the sensor toolkit for investigating environmental noise, sunlight levels, air pressure and rainfall, and the speed of lifts (elevators). These four investigations represent a variety of methods to initiate, orchestrate and conclude inquiry science learning. Two of the missions are in the context of a study to develop a community of inquiry around weather and meteorology. The others are intended to engage members of the public in practical science activities. Analysis of the missions and the associated online discussions reveals that the Sense-it toolkit can be adopted for practical and engaging science investigations, though the issue of calibrating sensors on personal devices needs to be addressed

Galaxy Zoo Green Peas: discovery of a class of compact extremely star-forming galaxies

‘The definitive version is available at www3.interscience.wiley.com '. Copyright Royal Astronomical Society. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2009.15383.xWe investigate a class of rapidly growing emission line galaxies, known as 'Green Peas', first noted by volunteers in the Galaxy Zoo project because of their peculiar bright green colour and small size, unresolved in Sloan Digital Sky Survey imaging. Their appearance is due to very strong optical emission lines, namely [O iii]λ5007 Å, with an unusually large equivalent width of up to ∼1000 Å. We discuss a well-defined sample of 251 colour-selected objects, most of which are strongly star forming, although there are some active galactic nuclei interlopers including eight newly discovered narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies. The star-forming Peas are low-mass galaxies (M∼ 108.5–1010 M⊙) with high star formation rates (∼10 M⊙ yr−1) , low metallicities (log[O/H]+ 12 ∼ 8.7) and low reddening [ E(B−V) ≤ 0.25 ] and they reside in low-density environments. They have some of the highest specific star formation rates (up to ∼10−8 yr−1 ) seen in the local Universe, yielding doubling times for their stellar mass of hundreds of Myr. The few star-forming Peas with Hubble Space Telescope imaging appear to have several clumps of bright star-forming regions and low surface density features that may indicate recent or ongoing mergers. The Peas are similar in size, mass, luminosity and metallicity to luminous blue compact galaxies. They are also similar to high-redshift ultraviolet-luminous galaxies, e.g. Lyman-break galaxies and Lyα emitters, and therefore provide a local laboratory with which to study the extreme star formation processes that occur in high-redshift galaxies. Studying starbursting galaxies as a function of redshift is essential to understanding the build up of stellar mass in the Universe.Peer reviewe

Galaxy Zoo : Building the low-mass end of the red sequence with local post-starburst galaxies

We present a study of local post-starburst galaxies (PSGs) using the photometric and spectroscopic observations from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the results from the Galaxy Zoo project. We find that the majority of our local PSG population have neither early- nor late-type morphologies but occupy a well-defined space within the colour-stellar mass diagram, most notably, the low-mass end of the 'green valley' below the transition mass thought to be the mass division between low-mass star-forming galaxies and high-mass passively evolving bulge-dominated galaxies. Our analysis suggests that it is likely that local PSGs will quickly transform into 'red', low-mass early-type galaxies as the stellar morphologies of the 'green' PSGs largely resemble that of the early-type galaxies within the same mass range. We propose that the current population of PSGs represents a population of galaxies which is rapidly transitioning between the star-forming and the passively evolving phases. Subsequently, these PSGs will contribute towards the build-up of the low-mass end of the 'red sequence' once the current population of young stars fade and stars are no longer being formed. These results are consistent with the idea of 'downsizing' where the build-up of smaller galaxies occurs at later epochs.Peer reviewe

Selection of radio pulsar candidates using artificial neural networks

Radio pulsar surveys are producing many more pulsar candidates than can be inspected by human experts in a practical length of time. Here we present a technique to automatically identify credible pulsar candidates from pulsar surveys using an artificial neural network. The technique has been applied to candidates from a recent re-analysis of the Parkes multi-beam pulsar survey resulting in the discovery of a previously unidentified pulsar.Comment: Accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. 9 pages, 7 figures, and 1 tabl

Galaxy Zoo: Disentangling the Environmental Dependence of Morphology and Colour

We analyze the environmental dependence of galaxy morphology and colour with two-point clustering statistics, using data from the Galaxy Zoo, the largest sample of visually classified morphologies yet compiled, extracted from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We present two-point correlation functions of spiral and early-type galaxies, and we quantify the correlation between morphology and environment with marked correlation functions. These yield clear and precise environmental trends across a wide range of scales, analogous to similar measurements with galaxy colours, indicating that the Galaxy Zoo classifications themselves are very precise. We measure morphology marked correlation functions at fixed colour and find that they are relatively weak, with the only residual correlation being that of red galaxies at small scales, indicating a morphology gradient within haloes for red galaxies. At fixed morphology, we find that the environmental dependence of colour remains strong, and these correlations remain for fixed morphology \textit{and} luminosity. An implication of this is that much of the morphology--density relation is due to the relation between colour and density. Our results also have implications for galaxy evolution: the morphological transformation of galaxies is usually accompanied by a colour transformation, but not necessarily vice versa. A spiral galaxy may move onto the red sequence of the colour-magnitude diagram without quickly becoming an early-type. We analyze the significant population of red spiral galaxies, and present evidence that they tend to be located in moderately dense environments and are often satellite galaxies in the outskirts of haloes. Finally, we combine our results to argue that central and satellite galaxies tend to follow different evolutionary paths.Comment: 19 pages, 18 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

The visual complexity of coronal mass ejections follows the solar cycle

The Heliospheric Imagers on board National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s twin STEREO spacecraft show that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be visually complex structures. To explore this complexity, we created a citizen science project with the U.K. Science Museum, in which participants were shown pairs of CME images and asked to decide which image in each pair appeared the most “complicated.” A Bradley‐Terry model was then applied to these data to rank the CMEs by their “complicatedness,” or “visual complexity.” This complexity ranking revealed that the annual average visual complexity values follow the solar activity cycle, with a higher level of complexity being observed at the peak of the cycle. The average complexity of CMEs observed by STEREO‐A was also found to be significantly higher than those observed by STEREO‐B. Visual complexity was found to be associated with CME size and brightness, but our results suggest that complexity may be influenced by the scale‐sizes of structure in the CMEs

Planet Hunters: Assessing the Kepler Inventory of Short Period Planets

We present the results from a search of data from the first 33.5 days of the Kepler science mission (Quarter 1) for exoplanet transits by the Planet Hunters citizen science project. Planet Hunters enlists members of the general public to visually identify transits in the publicly released Kepler light curves via the World Wide Web. Over 24,000 volunteers reviewed the Kepler Quarter 1 data set. We examine the abundance of \geq 2 R\oplus planets on short period (< 15 days) orbits based on Planet Hunters detections. We present these results along with an analysis of the detection efficiency of human classifiers to identify planetary transits including a comparison to the Kepler inventory of planet candidates. Although performance drops rapidly for smaller radii, \geq 4 R\oplus Planet Hunters \geq 85% efficient at identifying transit signals for planets with periods less than 15 days for the Kepler sample of target stars. Our high efficiency rate for simulated transits along with recovery of the majority of Kepler \geq 4 R\oplus planets suggest suggests the Kepler inventory of \geq 4 R\oplus short period planets is nearly complete.Comment: 41 pages,13 figures, 8 tables, accepted to Ap