Distribution Modeling of Mesophotic Corals and Algae to Further Ecological Understanding and Resource Management of Hawaiian Coral Reefs.

Ph.D. Thesis. University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa 2018

Managing Local Stressors for Coral Reef Condition and Ecosystem Services Delivery Under Climate Scenarios

Coral reefs provide numerous ecosystem goods and services, but are threatened by multiple environmental and anthropogenic stressors. To identify management scenarios that will reverse or mitigate ecosystem degradation, managers can benefit from tools that can quantify projected changes in ecosystem services due to alternative management options. We used a spatially-explicit biophysical ecosystem model to evaluate socio-ecological trade-offs of land-based vs. marine-based management scenarios, and local-scale vs. global-scale stressors and their cumulative impacts. To increase the relevance of understanding ecological change for the public and decision-makers, we used four ecological production functions to translate the model outputs into the ecosystem services: “State of the Reef,” “Trophic Integrity,” “Fisheries Production,” and “Fisheries Landings.” For a case study of Maui Nui, Hawai‘i, land-based management attenuated coral cover decline whereas fisheries management promoted higher total fish biomass. Placement of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) across 30% of coral reef areas led to a reversal of the historical decline in predatory fish biomass, although this outcome depended on the spatial arrangement of MPAs. Coral cover declined less severely under strict sediment mitigation scenarios. However, the benefits of these local management scenarios were largely lost when accounting for climate-related impacts. Climate-related stressors indirectly increased herbivore biomass due to the shift from corals to algae and, hence, greater food availability. The two ecosystem services related to fish biomass increased under climate-related stressors but “Trophic Integrity” of the reef declined, indicating a less resilient reef. “State of the Reef” improved most and “Trophic Integrity” declined least under an optimistic global warming scenario and strict local management. This work provides insight into the relative influence of land-based vs. marine-based management and local vs. global stressors as drivers of changes in ecosystem dynamics while quantifying the tradeoffs between conservation- and extraction-oriented ecosystem services

Fine-scale spatial variability of heat-related mortality in Philadelphia County, USA, from 1983-2008: a case-series analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>High temperature and humidity conditions are associated with short-term elevations in the mortality rate in many United States cities. Previous research has quantified this relationship in an aggregate manner over large metropolitan areas, but within these areas the response may differ based on local-scale variability in climate, population characteristics, and socio-economic factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compared the mortality response for 48 Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs) comprising Philadelphia County, PA to determine if certain areas are associated with elevated risk during high heat stress conditions. A randomization test was used to identify mortality exceedances for various apparent temperature thresholds at both the city and local scale. We then sought to identify the environmental, demographic, and social factors associated with high-risk areas via principal components regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Citywide mortality increases by 9.3% on days following those with apparent temperatures over 34°C observed at 7:00 p.m. local time. During these conditions, elevated mortality rates were found for 10 of the 48 ZCTAs concentrated in the west-central portion of the County. Factors related to high heat mortality risk included proximity to locally high surface temperatures, low socioeconomic status, high density residential zoning, and age.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Within the larger Philadelphia metropolitan area, there exists statistically significant fine-scale spatial variability in the mortality response to high apparent temperatures. Future heat warning systems and mitigation and intervention measures could target these high risk areas to reduce the burden of extreme weather on summertime morbidity and mortality.</p

The implementation of rare events logistic regression to predict the distribution of mesophotic hard corals across the main Hawaiian Islands

Predictive habitat suitability models are powerful tools for cost-effective, statistically robust assessment of the environmental drivers of species distributions. The aim of this study was to develop predictive habitat suitability models for two genera of scleractinian corals (Leptoserisand Montipora) found within the mesophotic zone across the main Hawaiian Islands. The mesophotic zone (30–180 m) is challenging to reach, and therefore historically understudied, because it falls between the maximum limit of SCUBA divers and the minimum typical working depth of submersible vehicles. Here, we implement a logistic regression with rare events corrections to account for the scarcity of presence observations within the dataset. These corrections reduced the coefficient error and improved overall prediction success (73.6% and 74.3%) for both original regression models. The final models included depth, rugosity, slope, mean current velocity, and wave height as the best environmental covariates for predicting the occurrence of the two genera in the mesophotic zone. Using an objectively selected theta (“presence”) threshold, the predicted presence probability values (average of 0.051 for Leptoseris and 0.040 for Montipora) were translated to spatially-explicit habitat suitability maps of the main Hawaiian Islands at 25 m grid cell resolution. Our maps are the first of their kind to use extant presence and absence data to examine the habitat preferences of these two dominant mesophotic coral genera across Hawai‘i

Pathogenic Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Is Associated with Expansion of the Enteric Virome

SummaryPathogenic simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection is associated with enteropathy, which likely contributes to AIDS progression. To identify candidate etiologies for AIDS enteropathy, we used next-generation sequencing to define the enteric virome during SIV infection in nonhuman primates. Pathogenic, but not nonpathogenic, SIV infection was associated with significant expansion of the enteric virome. We identified at least 32 previously undescribed enteric viruses during pathogenic SIV infection and confirmed their presence by using viral culture and PCR testing. We detected unsuspected mucosal adenovirus infection associated with enteritis as well as parvovirus viremia in animals with advanced AIDS, indicating the pathogenic potential of SIV-associated expansion of the enteric virome. No association between pathogenic SIV infection and the family-level taxonomy of enteric bacteria was detected. Thus, enteric viral infections may contribute to AIDS enteropathy and disease progression. These findings underline the importance of metagenomic analysis of the virome for understanding AIDS pathogenesis