Pairwise comparison matrices: an empirical research

Our research focused on testing various characteristics of pairwise comparison (PC) matrices in controlled experiments. About 270 students have been involved in the test exercises and the final pool contained 450 matrices. Our team conducted experiments with matrices of different size obtained from different types of MADM problems. The matrix elements have been generated by different questioning orders, too. The cases have been divided into 18 subgroups according to the key factors to be analyzed. The testing environment made it possible to analyze the dynamics of inconsistency as the number of elements increased in a given case. Various types of inconsistency indices have been applied. The consequent behavior of the decision maker has also been analyzed in case of incomplete matrices using indicators to measure the deviation from the final ranking of alternatives and from the final score vector

A kvázi- és általánosított hiperbolikus diszkontálás hosszú távon (Quasi- and Generalized Hyperbolic Discounting in Long Term)

Az intertemporális döntések fontos szerepet játszanak a közgazdasági modellezésben, és azt írják le, hogy milyen átváltást alkalmazunk két különböző időpont között. A közgazdasági modellezésben az exponenciális diszkontálás a legelterjedtebb, annak ellenére, hogy az empirikus vizsgálatok alapján gyenge a magyarázó ereje. A gazdaságpszichológiában elterjedt általánosított hiperbolikus diszkontálás viszont nagyon nehezen alkalmazható közgazdasági modellezési célra. Így tudott gyorsan elterjedni a kvázi-hiperbolikus diszkontálási modell, amelyik úgy ragadja meg a főbb pszichológiai jelenségeket, hogy kezelhető marad a modellezés során. A cikkben azt állítjuk, hogy hibás az a megközelítés, hogy hosszú távú döntések esetén, főleg sorozatok esetén helyettesíthető a két hiperbolikus diszkontálás egymással. Így a hosszú távú kérdéseknél érdemes felülvizsgálni a kvázi-hiperbolikus diszkontálással kapott eredményeket, ha azok az általánosított hiperbolikus diszkontálási modellel való helyettesíthetőséget feltételezték. ____ Intertemporal choice is one of the crucial questions in economic modeling and it describes decisions which require trade-offs among outcomes occurring in different points in time. In economic modeling the exponential discounting is the most well known, however it has weak validity in empirical studies. Although according to psychologists generalized hyperbolic discounting has the strongest descriptive validity it is very complex and hard to use in economic models. In response to this challenge quasi-hyperbolic discounting was proposed. It has the most important properties of generalized hyperbolic discounting while tractability remains in analytical modeling. Therefore it is common to substitute generalized hyperbolic discounting with quasi-hyperbolic discounting. This paper argues that the substitution of these two models leads to different conclusions in long term decisions especially in the case of series; hence all the models that use quasi-hyperbolic discounting for long term decisions should be revised if they states that generalized hyperbolic discounting model would have the same conclusion

The effect of focusing on loan decisions

In this paper we investigate some implications of recent results about salience on loan decisions. Using the framework of focus-weighted utility we show that consumers might take out loans even when that yield them negative utility. We claim however, that consumers are more prudent in their decisions and might be less likely to take out such loans when the usual fixed- and increasing-installment plans are coupled with a decreasing-installment option. We argue that harmful loan consumption, especially in the case of loans with increasing-installments (e.g. alternative mortgage loans), could be decreased if a policy would prescribe presentation of loan repayment schedules in a way that employs this effect. Moreover, using the model of focus-weighted utility we give a possible explanation for the unpopularity of decreasing-installment plans, the success of increasing-installment plans and their higher default rate during the financial crisis

When irrelevant alternatives do matter. The effect of focusing on loan decisions

In this paper, we investigate some implications of recent results about salience on loan decisions. Using the framework of focus-weighted utility we show that consumers might take out loans even when that yield them negative utility due to the focusing bias. We suggest, however, that this can be counterbalanced and consumers might be more prudent in their decisions and less likely to take out such loans when the usual fixed-installments plan is coupled with an equivalent decreasing-installments option. Moreover, we show that this is true even for loans with prepayment options or when borrowers take default into consideration. We argue that harmful loan consumption could be decreased if a policy would prescribe presentation of loan repayment schedules in a way that employs this effect

Inequitable wages and tax evasion

In a two-stage lab experiment, we examine whether wage inequity has a greater impact on tax compliance and on the beliefs about peers’ compliance levels among the wronged when it results from intentional human choice versus a random mechanism. Subjects are organized into groups of six. In the first stage, we perform a wage inequity manipulation by assigning equitable or inequitable wages to subjects as remuneration for a real-effort task. In the second stage, subjects are prompted to report their incomes, of which a certain percent is deducted but not redistributed between them. Then, subjects state their incentivized beliefs about the mean of the declared-to-true income ratio among their group members. We find that tax compliance and beliefs are eroded when wage inequity stems from intentional human choice but not when it is due to randomness. Consequently, it is not inequity per se that reduces tax compliance and corrupts beliefs, but rather when inequity is due to a human choice. Our results demonstrate that incidental unfairness in the form of intentional wage inequity adversely affects tax compliance and beliefs about peers’ compliance levels. In conclusion, intentional wage inequity can be harmful for society

A KORLÁTOZOTT RACIONALITÁS FELTÉRKÉPEZÉSE AZ INTUITÍV DÖNTÉSEK ÉS VÁLASZTÁSOK SZEMPONTJÁBÓL I.

Daniel Kahneman izraeli gazdaságpszichológus, a Princeton Egyetem professor emeritusa 2002-ben, Vernon L. Smith-el megosztva nyerte el a közgazdasági Nobel díjat a kilátáselméletet kifejlesztéséért. Jelen tanulmány a Nobel-díj átvétele alkalmából készített előadásán alapul. A tanulmányt két részletben közöljük

Analysis of pairwise comparison matrices: an empirical research

Pairwise comparison (PC) matrices are used in multi-attribute decision problems (MADM) in order to express the preferences of the decision maker. Our research focused on testing various characteristics of PC matrices. In a controlled experiment with university students (N = 227) we have obtained 454 PC matrices. The cases have been divided into 18 subgroups according to the key factors to be analyzed. Our team conducted experiments with matrices of different size given from different types of MADM problems. Additionally, the matrix elements have been obtained by different questioning procedures differing in the order of the questions. Results are organized to answer five research questions. Three of them are directly connected to the inconsistency of a PC matrix. Various types of inconsistency indices have been applied. We have found that the type of the problem and the size of the matrix had impact on the inconsistency of the PC matrix. However, we have not found any impact of the questioning order. Incomplete PC matrices played an important role in our research. The decision makers behavioral consistency was as well analyzed in case of incomplete matrices using indicators measuring the deviation from the final order of alternatives and from the final score vector

Inequitable wages and tax evasion

In a two-stage, preregistered lab experiment (aspredcited.com #36099), we examine whether wage inequity has a greater impact on tax compliance and on the beliefs about prevailing compliance norms among the wronged when it results from intentional human choice versus a random mechanism. Subjects are organized into groups of six. In the ?the first stage, we perform a wage inequity manipulation by assigning equitable or inequitable wages to subjects as remuneration for a trivial, real-e?ort task. In the second stage, subjects are prompted to report their incomes, of which a certain percent is deducted but not redistributed between them. Next, subjects state their incentivized beliefs about the mean of the declared-to-true income ratio among their group members. We ?nd that tax compliance and beliefs about the prevailing compliance norms are eroded when wage inequity stems from intentional human choice but not when the same wage is randomly chosen. Consequently, it is not the wage inequity per se that reduces tax compliance and corrupts beliefs about the norms, but rather the inequity due to human choice. Our results demonstrate that incidental unfairness in the form of intentional wage inequity adversely spills over onto tax compliance and beliefs about the prevailing compliance norms. In conclusion, intentional wage inequity can be harmful for the society as a whole

Designing Choice Sets to Exploit Focusing Illusion

Focusing illusion describes how, when making choices, people may put disproportionate attention on certain attributes of the options and hence, causing those options to be overvalued. For instance, in deciding whether or not to take out a loan, people may focus more on getting the loan than on its small and dispersed costs. Building on recent literature on focusing illusion in economic choice, we theoretically propose and empirically test that focusing illusion can be advantageously exploited such that attention is put back on the ignored attributes. To demonstrate this, we use hypothetical loan decisions where people choose between loans with different repayment plans to finance a purchase. We show that when adding a steeply decreasing-installments plan to the original choice set of not borrowing or borrowing under a fixed-installments plan, the preference for the fixed-installments plan is lessened. This is because preference for the fixed-installments plan shifted towards not borrowing. We discuss potential applications of our results in designing choice sets of intertemporal sequences