Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change.

Climate factors influence the transmission of dengue fever, the world's most widespread vector-borne virus. We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on dengue transmission using computer-based simulation analysis to link temperature output from three climate general circulation models (GCMs) to a dengue vectorial capacity equation. Our outcome measure, epidemic potential, is the reciprocal of the critical mosquito density threshold of the vectorial capacity equation. An increase in epidemic potential indicates that a smaller number of mosquitoes can maintain a state of endemicity of disease where dengue virus is introduced. Baseline climate data for comparison are from 1931 to 1980. Among the three GCMs, the average projected temperature elevation was 1.16 degrees C, expected by the year 2050. All three GCMs projected a temperature-related increase in potential seasonal transmission in five selected cities, as well as an increase in global epidemic potential, with the largest area change occurring in temperate regions. For regions already at risk, the aggregate epidemic potential across the three scenarios rose on average between 31 and 47% (range, 24-74%). If climate change occurs, as many climatologists believe, this will increase the epidemic potential of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, given viral introduction and susceptible human populations. Our risk assessment suggests that increased incidence may first occur in regions bordering endemic zones in latitude or altitude. Endemic locations may be at higher risk from hemorrhagic dengue if transmission intensity increases

Hepatitis B Sero-Prevalence and Risk Behaviors Among Immigrant Men in a Population-Based Household Survey in Low-Income Neighborhoods of Northern California

Background Despite an effective vaccine, 60,000 new HBV infections were reported in the US in 2004; 95% in adults. We evaluate HBV sero-prevalence, risk behaviors and self-reported vaccination among Latino immigrant, Asian immigrant and US born low income men in five northern California counties. Methods Population based, cross sectional survey of HBV sero-prevalence and risk behaviors in men aged 18 to 35 years. Results Among 1,512 men screened, Asian immigrants were most likely to have had prior HBV infection (15.1%) and chronic infection (3.8%) compared to US born (prior 5.1%, chronic 0.6%) and Latino immigrant men (prior 2.0%, chronic 0.3%.) Reported HBV vaccination was lowest for Latino immigrants (12%) compared to Asian immigrants and US born men (35% in both.) Latino immigrants reported less educational attainment, medical insurance coverage and access to a physician in the last six months. Discussion Healthcare providers should routinely screen Asian immigrants for HBV regardless of their self reported vaccination status. Latino immigrants may comprise an important group of under-vaccinated, at risk persons in California. HBV testing and vaccination of immigrants soon after US arrival should be encouraged

Healthcare Barriers of Refugees Post-resettlement

The majority of refugees spend the greater part of their lives in refugee camps before repatriation or resettlement to a host country. Limited resources and stress during residence in refugee camps can lead to a variety of acute and chronic diseases which often persist upon resettlement. However, for most resettled refugees little is known about their health needs beyond a health assessment completed upon entry. We conducted a qualitative pilot-study in San Diego County, the third largest area in California, USA for resettling refugees, to explore health care access issues of refugees after governmental assistance has ended. A total of 40 guided in-depth interviews were conducted with a targeted sample of informants (health care practitioners, employees of refugee serving organizations, and recent refugee arrivals) familiar with the health needs of refugees. Interviews revealed that the majority of refugees do not regularly access health services. Beyond individual issues, emerging themes indicated that language and communication affect all stages of health care access—from making an appointment to filling out a prescription. Acculturation presented increased stress, isolation, and new responsibilities. Additionally, cultural beliefs about health care directly affected refugees’ expectation of care. These barriers contribute to delayed care and may directly influence refugee short- and long-term health. Our findings suggest the need for additional research into contextual factors surrounding health care access barriers, and the best avenues to reduce such barriers and facilitate access to existing services

AIDS-defining illnesses among patients with HIV in Singapore, 1985 to 2001: results from the Singapore HIV Observational Cohort Study (SHOCS)

BACKGROUND: The objective was to describe the causes of initial and overall AIDS-defining disease episodes among HIV patients in Singapore. METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort study was performed of all adult patients seen at the national HIV referral center between 1985 and 2001. Data were extracted from the patients' records by ten trained healthcare workers. AIDS-defining conditions were established using predefined criteria. RESULTS: Among 1504 patients, 834 had experienced one or more AIDS-defining diseases. The most frequent causes of the initial AIDS-defining episode were Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (35.7%), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (22.7%) and herpes simplex (7.4%). In total 1742 AIDS-defining episodes occurred. The most frequent causes were Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (25.1%), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (16.2%) and cytomegalovirus retinitis (9.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The most frequent causes of AIDS-defining illnesses in Singapore are similar to those reported in the West, prior to the introduction of anti-retroviral therapy. Opportunistic infections remain the most frequent AIDS-defining illnesses

Changing character and waning impact of COVID-19 at a tertiary centre in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2 was associated with changing epidemiological characteristics throughout coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in population-based studies. Individual-level data on the clinical characteristics of infection with different SARS-CoV-2 variants in African countries is less well documented. OBJECTIVES: To describe the evolving clinical differences observed with the various SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and compare the Omicron-driven wave in infections to the previous Delta-driven wave. METHOD: We performed a retrospective observational cohort study among patients admitted to a South African referral hospital with COVID-19 pneumonia. Patients were stratified by epidemiological wave period, and in a subset, the variants associated with each wave were confirmed by genomic sequencing. Outcomes were analysed by Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: We included 1689 patients were included, representing infection waves driven predominantly by ancestral, Beta, Delta and Omicron BA1/BA2 & BA4/BA5 variants. Crude 28-day mortality was 25.8% (34/133) in the Omicron wave period versus 37.1% (138/374) in the Delta wave period (hazard ratio [HR] 0.68 [95% CI 0.47-1.00] p = 0.049); this effect persisted after adjustment for age, gender, HIV status and presence of cardiovascular disease (adjusted HR [aHR] 0.43 [95% CI 0.28-0.67] p < 0.001). Hospital-wide SARS-CoV-2 admissions and deaths were highest during the Delta wave period, with a decoupling of SARS-CoV-2 deaths and overall deaths thereafter. CONCLUSION: There was lower in-hospital mortality during Omicron-driven waves compared with the prior Delta wave, despite patients admitted during the Omicron wave being at higher risk. CONTRIBUTION: This study summarises clinical characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 variants during the COVID-19 pandemic at a South African tertiary hospital, demonstrating a waning impact of COVID-19 on healthcare services over time despite epidemic waves driven by new variants. Findings suggest the absence of increasing virulence from later variants and protection from population and individual-level immunity

Running away experience and psychoactive substance use among adolescents in Taiwan: multi-city street outreach survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study aimed to examine: 1) the relationship between being a runaway and the time since the first absconding event and adolescent substance use; 2) whether different kinds of psychoactive substances have a different temporal relationship to the first absconding event; and 3) whether the various reasons for the first absconding event are associated with different risks of substance use.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants were drawn from the 2004-2006 nationwide outreach programs across 26 cities/towns in Taiwan. A total of 17,133 participants, age 12-18 years, who completed an anonymous questionnaire on their experience of running away and substances use and who were now living with their families, were included in the analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The lifetime risk of tobacco, alcohol, betel nut, and illegal drug/inhalant use increased steadily from adolescents who had experienced a trial runaway episode (one time lasting ≤ 1 day), to those with extended runaway experience (≥ 2 times or lasting > 1 day), when compared to those who had never ran away. Adolescents who had their first running away experience > 6 months previously had a greater risk of betel nut or illegal drug/inhalant use over the past 6-months than those with a similar experience within the last 6 months. Both alcohol and tobacco use were most frequently initiated before the first running away, whereas both betel nut and illegal drug/inhalant use were most frequently initiated after this event. When adolescents who were fleeing an unsatisfactory home life were compared to those who ran away for excitement, the risk of alcohol use was similar but the former tended to have a higher risk of tobacco, betel nut, and illegal drug/inhalant use.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>More significant running away and a longer time since the first absconding experience were associated with more advanced substance involvement among adolescents now living in a family setting. Once adolescents had left home, they developed additional psychoactive substance problems, regardless of their reasons for running away. These findings have implications for caregivers, teachers, and healthcare workers when trying to prevent and/or intervening in adolescent substance use.</p