Forecasting with dimension switching VARs

This paper develops methods for VAR forecasting when the researcher is uncertain about which variables enter the VAR, and the dimension of the VAR may be changing over time. It considers the case where there are N variables which might potentially enter a VAR and the researcher is interested in forecasting N ∗ of them. Thus, the researcher is faced with 2 N − N ∗ potential VARs. If N is large, conventional Bayesian methods can be infeasible due to the computational burden of dealing with a huge model space. Allowing for the dimension of the VAR to change over time only increases this burden. In light of these considerations, this paper uses computationally practical approximations adapted from the dynamic model averaging literature in order to develop methods for dynamic dimension selection (DDS) in VARs. We then show the benefits of DDS in a macroeconomic forecasting application. In particular, DDS switches between different parsimonious VARs and forecasts appreciably better than various small and large dimensional VARs

Virtual primary care in high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic: policy responses and lessons for the future

Background: Telemedicine, once defined merely as the treatment of certain conditions remotely, has now often been supplanted in use by broader terms such as ‘virtual care’, in recognition of its increasing capability to deliver a diverse range of healthcare services from afar. With the unexpected onset of COVID-19, virtual care (e.g., telephone, video, online) has become essential to facilitating the continuation of primary care globally. Over several short weeks, existing healthcare policies have adapted quickly and empowered clinicians to use digital means to fulfil a wide range of clinical responsibilities which until then, have required face-to-face consultations. Objective: This paper aims to explore the virtual care policies and guidance material published during the initial months of the pandemic and examine their potential limitations and impact on transforming the delivery of primary care in high-income countries. Methods: A rapid review of publicly available national policies guiding the use of virtual care in General Practice was conducted. Documents were included if issued in the first six months of the pandemic (March to August of 2020) and focused primarily on high-income countries. Documents must have been issued by a national health authority, accreditation body, or professional organisation, and directly refer to the delivery of primary care. Results: We extracted six areas of relevance: primary care transformation during COVID-19, the continued delivery of preventative care, the delivery of acute care, remote triaging, funding & reimbursement, and security standards. Conclusion: Virtual care use in primary care saw a transformative change during the pandemic. However, despite the advances in the various governmental guidance offered, much work remains in addressing the shortcomings exposed during COVID-19 and strengthening viable policies so as to better incorporate novel technologies into the modern primary care clinical environment

Towards a Semantic Gas Source Localization under Uncertainty

Towards a Semantic Gas Source Localization under Uncertainty.Communications in Computer and Information Science book series (CCIS, volume 855), doi:10.1007/978-3-319-91479-4_42This work addresses the problem of efficiently and coherently locating a gas source in a domestic environment with a mobile robot, meaning efficiently the coverage of the shortest distance as possible and coherently the consideration of different gas sources explaining the gas presence. The main contribution is the exploitation, for the first time, of semantic relationships between the gases detected and the objects present in the environment to face this challenging issue. Our proposal also takes into account both the uncertainty inherent in the gas classification and object recognition processes. These uncertainties are combined through a probabilistic Bayesian framework to provide a priority-ordered list of (previously observed) objects to check. Moreover the proximity of the different candidates to the current robot location is also considered by a cost function, which output is used for planning the robot inspection path. We have conducted an initial demonstration of the suitability of our gas source localization approach by simulating this task within domestic environments for a variable number of objects, and comparing it with an greedy approach.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Enhanced performance in polymer photovoltaic cells with chloroform treated indium tin oxide anode modification

Enhanced performance of a poly(3-hexylthiophene):(6,6)-phenyl C61 butyric acid methyl ester bulk heterojunction polymer photovoltaic cell is reported by modifying the indium tin oxide (ITO) anode with chloroform solution. Instead of the traditional UV-ozone treatment, the optimized chloroform modification on ITO anode can result in an enhancement in the power conversion efficiency of an identical device, originating from an increase in the photocurrent with negligible change in the open-circuit voltage. The performance enhancement is attributed to the work function modification of the ITO substrate through the surface incorporation of the chlorine, and thus improved charge collection efficiency. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

Constraints on the Universal Varying Yukawa Couplings: from SM-like to Fermiophobic

Varying the Standard Model (SM) fermion Yukawa couplings universally by a generic positive scale factor ($F_{Yu}$), we study the phenomenological fit to the current available experimental results for the Higgs boson search at hadron colliders. We point out that the Higgs production cross section and its decay branching ratio to $\gamma\gamma$ can be varied oppositely by $F_{Yu}$ to make their product almost invariant. Thus, our scenario and the SM Higgs are indistinguishable in the inclusive $H\to \gamma\gamma$ channel. The current measurements on direct Yukawa coupling strength in the $H\to b\bar{b}/\tau\tau$ channel are not precise enough to fix the scale factor $F_{Yu}$. The most promising is the vector-boson-fusion channel in which the CMS has already observed possible suppression effect on the Yukawa couplings. Further more, the global $\chi^2$ fit of the experimental data can get the optimal value by introducing a suppression factor $F_{Yu}\sim1/2$ on the SM Yukawa couplings.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, 5 tables, update analysis is supplemente

Zika virus impairs the development of blood vessels in a mouse model of congenital infection

Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with brain development abnormalities such as primary microcephaly, a severe reduction in brain growth. Here we demonstrated in vivo the impact of congenital ZIKV infection in blood vessel development, a crucial step in organogenesis. ZIKV was injected intravenously in the pregnant type 2 interferon (IFN)-deficient mouse at embryonic day (E) 12.5. The embryos were collected at E15.5 and postnatal day (P)2. Immunohistochemistry for cortical progenitors and neuronal markers at E15.5 showed the reduction of both populations as a result of ZIKV infection. Using confocal 3D imaging, we found that ZIKV infected brain sections displayed a reduction in the vasculature density and vessel branching compared to mocks at E15.5; altogether, cortical vessels presented a comparatively immature pattern in the infected tissue. These impaired vascular patterns were also apparent in the placenta and retina. Moreover, proteomic analysis has shown that angiogenesis proteins are deregulated in the infected brains compared to controls. At P2, the cortical size and brain weight were reduced in comparison to mock-infected animals. In sum, our results indicate that ZIKV impairs angiogenesis in addition to neurogenesis during development. The vasculature defects represent a limitation for general brain growth but also could regulate neurogenesis directly

Multiphoton Interference in Quantum Fourier Transform Circuits and Applications to Quantum Metrology

© 2017 American Physical Society. Quantum Fourier transforms (QFTs) have gained increased attention with the rise of quantum walks, boson sampling, and quantum metrology. Here, we present and demonstrate a general technique that simplifies the construction of QFT interferometers using both path and polarization modes. On that basis, we first observe the generalized Hong-Ou-Mandel effect with up to four photons. Furthermore, we directly exploit number-path entanglement generated in these QFT interferometers and demonstrate optical phase supersensitivities deterministically

Effective Capacity in Broadcast Channels with Arbitrary Inputs

We consider a broadcast scenario where one transmitter communicates with two receivers under quality-of-service constraints. The transmitter initially employs superposition coding strategies with arbitrarily distributed signals and sends data to both receivers. Regarding the channel state conditions, the receivers perform successive interference cancellation to decode their own data. We express the effective capacity region that provides the maximum allowable sustainable data arrival rate region at the transmitter buffer or buffers. Given an average transmission power limit, we provide a two-step approach to obtain the optimal power allocation policies that maximize the effective capacity region. Then, we characterize the optimal decoding regions at the receivers in the space spanned by the channel fading power values. We finally substantiate our results with numerical presentations.Comment: This paper will appear in 14th International Conference on Wired&Wireless Internet Communications (WWIC

Polyethylenimine-based amphiphilic core-shell nanoparticles : study of gene delivery and intracellular trafficking

Author name used in this publication: Kam Len Daniel LeeAuthor name used in this publication: Pei Li2011-2012 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalVersion of RecordPublishe

Surface plasmon-enhanced electroluminescence in organic light-emitting diodes incorporating Au nanoparticles

Surface plasmon-enhanced electroluminescence (EL) in an organic light-emitting diode is demonstrated by incorporating the synthesized Au nanoparticles (NPs) in the hole injection layer of poly(3,4-ethylene dioxythiophene):polystyrene sulfonic acid. An increase of ∼25% in the EL intensity and efficiency are achieved for devices with Au NPs, whereas the spectral and electrical properties remain almost identical to the control device. Time-resolved photoluminescence spectroscopy reveals that the EL enhancement is ascribed to the increase in spontaneous emission rate due to the plasmonic near-field effect induced by Au NPs. © 2012 American Institute of Physics