T Tauri variability in the context of the beat-frequency model

We examine the implications of a beat frequency modulated model of T Tauri accretion. In particular we show that measurements of the variability of accretion generated lines can be used in conjunction with existing photometry to obtain a measurement of the underlying photospheric and disc flux. This provides an independent way of checking spectral energy distribution modelling. In addition, we show how spectroscopy of T Tauri stars can reveal the inclination angle between the magnetic axis and the plane of the disc.Comment: uuencoded compressed postscript. The preprint is also available at http://www.ast.cam.ac.uk/preprint/PrePrint.htm

Dynamical Modeling of NGC 6809: Selecting the best model using Bayesian Inference

The precise cosmological origin of globular clusters remains uncertain, a situation hampered by the struggle of observational approaches in conclusively identifying the presence, or not, of dark matter in these systems. In this paper, we address this question through an analysis of the particular case of NGC 6809. While previous studies have performed dynamical modeling of this globular cluster using a small number of available kinematic data, they did not perform appropriate statistical inference tests for the choice of best model description; such statistical inference for model selection is important since, in general, different models can result in significantly different inferred quantities. With the latest kinematic data, we use Bayesian inference tests for model selection and thus obtain the best fitting models, as well as mass and dynamic mass-to-light ratio estimates. For this, we introduce a new likelihood function that provides more constrained distributions for the defining parameters of dynamical models. Initially we consider models with a known distribution function, and then model the cluster using solutions of the spherically symmetric Jeans equation; this latter approach depends upon the mass density profile and anisotropy $\beta$ parameter. In order to find the best description for the cluster we compare these models by calculating their Bayesian evidence. We find smaller mass and dynamic mass-to-light ratio values than previous studies, with the best fitting Michie model for a constant mass-to-light ratio of $\Upsilon = 0.90^{+0.14}_{-0.14}$ and $M_{\text{dyn}}=6.10^{+0.51}_{-0.88} \times 10^4 M_{\odot}$. We exclude the significant presence of dark matter throughout the cluster, showing that no physically motivated distribution of dark matter can be present away from the cluster core.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

MGS accelerometer data analysis with the LMD GCM

Mars Global Surveyor aerobreaking phases, required to achieve its mapping orbit, have yielded vertical profiles of thermospheric densities, scale heights and temperatures covering a broad range of local times, seasons and spatial coordinates [Keating et al. 1998, 2001]. Phase I covered local times from 11 to 16 h (assuming 24 "martian hours” per martian day or sols), with a latitude coverage of approximately 40deg to 60deg N. Seasons observed during this phase were centered around winter solstice and altitudes of periapsis range from 115 to 135 km. The altitudes for Phase II were lower, with a minimum around 100 km and a maximum around 120. Martian spring was the season covered during this phase and the local time was between 15 and 16 h. The latitude covered by Phase II, however, was more extense than that seen during Phase I, with a coverage from 60deg N to basically the South Pole

Events leading up to the June 2015 outburst of V404 Cyg

On 2015 June 15 the burst alert telescope (BAT) on board {\em Swift} detected an X-ray outburst from the black hole transient V404 Cyg. We monitored V404 Cyg for the last 10 years with the 2-m Faulkes Telescope North in three optical bands (V, R, and i$^{'}$). We found that, one week prior to this outburst, the optical flux was 0.1--0.3 mag brighter than the quiescent orbital modulation, implying an optical precursor to the X-ray outburst. There is also a hint of a gradual optical decay (years) followed by a rise lasting two months prior to the outburst. We fortuitously obtained an optical spectrum of V404 Cyg 13 hours before the BAT trigger. This too was brighter ($\sim1\rm\,mag$) than quiescence, and showed spectral lines typical of an accretion disk, with characteristic absorption features of the donor being much weaker. No He II emission was detected, which would have been expected had the X-ray flux been substantially brightening. This, combined with the presence of intense H$\alpha$ emission, about 7 times the quiescent level, suggests that the disk entered the hot, outburst state before the X-ray outburst began. We propose that the outburst is produced by a viscous-thermal instability triggered close to the inner edge of a truncated disk. An X-ray delay of a week is consistent with the time needed to refill the inner region and hence move the inner edge of the disk inwards, allowing matter to reach the central BH, finally turning on the X-ray emission.Comment: Accepted by ApJ Letter, 7 pages, 5 figure

State-space based mass event-history model I: many decision-making agents with one target

A dynamic decision-making system that includes a mass of indistinguishable agents could manifest impressive heterogeneity. This kind of nonhomogeneity is postulated to result from macroscopic behavioral tactics employed by almost all involved agents. A State-Space Based (SSB) mass event-history model is developed here to explore the potential existence of such macroscopic behaviors. By imposing an unobserved internal state-space variable into the system, each individual's event-history is made into a composition of a common state duration and an individual specific time to action. With the common state modeling of the macroscopic behavior, parametric statistical inferences are derived under the current-status data structure and conditional independence assumptions. Identifiability and computation related problems are also addressed. From the dynamic perspectives of system-wise heterogeneity, this SSB mass event-history model is shown to be very distinct from a random effect model via the Principle Component Analysis (PCA) in a numerical experiment. Real data showing the mass invasion by two species of parasitic nematode into two species of host larvae are also analyzed. The analysis results not only are found coherent in the context of the biology of the nematode as a parasite, but also include new quantitative interpretations.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS189 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Towards a global model of the martian atmosphere

In an effort to continuously improve the capabilities of the Martian atmospheric predictions at LMD, the GCM has been extended into thermospheric heights thus creating the first model to self-consistently couple the lower and upper regions of the Martian atmosphere. The behaviour of the Martian thermosphere is strongly influenced by lower atmospheric processes and has complex dynamics. Such a fully coupled model will certainly aid in the preparation of future missions and on the analysis of future high altitude data, as well as serve as a base for the simulation of ionospheric processes, escape, etc

Effective use of ERTS multisensor data in the Northern Great Plains

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS imagery was used as a tool in the identification and refinement of soil association areas; to classify land use patterns between crop and fallow fields; to identify corn, soybeans, and oats; and to identify broad generalized range ecosystems. Various data handling techniques were developed and applied to accomplish these tasks. A map outlining soil associations and relative land values was completed on a base mosaic of ERTS imagery and is included as an appendix to the report