Examining the role of Scotland’s telephone advice service (NHS 24) for managing health in the community : analysis of routinely collected NHS 24 data

Date of Acceptance: 15/06/2015 Funding This work was supported by the Chief Scientist Office, ScottishExecutive (grant no. CZH/4/692). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Data feedback and behavioural change intervention to improve primary care prescribing safety (EFIPPS):multicentre, three arm, cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of feedback on safety of prescribing compared with moderately enhanced usual care. Design: Three arm, highly pragmatic cluster randomised trial. Setting and participants: 262/278 (94%) primary care practices in three Scottish health boards. Interventions: Practices were randomised to: "usual care," consisting of emailed educational material with support for searching to identify patients (88 practices at baseline, 86 analysed); usual care plus feedback on practice's high risk prescribing sent quarterly on five occasions (87 practices, 86 analysed); or usual care plus the same feedback incorporating a behavioural change component (87 practices, 86 analysed). Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was a patient level composite of six prescribing measures relating to high risk use of antipsychotics, non-steroidal anti-inflammatories, and antiplatelets. Secondary outcomes were the six individual measures. The primary analysis compared high risk prescribing in the two feedback arms against usual care at 15 months. Secondary analyses examined immediate change and change in trend of high risk prescribing associated with implementation of the intervention within each arm. Results: In the primary analysis, high risk prescribing as measured by the primary outcome fell from 6.0% (3332/55 896) to 5.1% (2845/55 872) in the usual care arm, compared with 5.9% (3341/56 194) to 4.6% (2587/56 478) in the feedback only arm (odds ratio 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.80 to 0.96) compared with usual care; P=0.007) and 6.2% (3634/58 569) to 4.6% (2686/58 582) in the feedback plus behavioural change component arm (0.86 (0.78 to 0.95); P=0.002). In the pre-specified secondary analysis of change in trend within each arm, the usual care educational intervention had no effect on the existing declining trend in high risk prescribing. Both types of feedback were associated with significantly more rapid decline in high risk prescribing after the intervention compared with before. Conclusions: Feedback of prescribing safety data was effective at reducing high risk prescribing. The intervention would be feasible to implement at scale in contexts where electronic health records are in general use

Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity along the Pacific coast of North America

RESUMEN Se describe la variabilidad interanual de ciclones tropicales cercanos a la costa en el Pacífico nororiental, utilizando para ello un conjunto de datos elaborado con reportes oceánicos y atmosféricos de EUA y México correspondientes al periodo . Los ciclones cercanos a la costa se enumeran de forma mensual, lo que permite distinguir la variabilidad interanual en distintas fases de la temporada de ciclones de mayo a noviembre. De acuerdo con estos datos, el número de ciclones tropicales que impactan la costa del Pacífico de mayo a julio (los primeros meses de la temporada de ciclones tropicales) en años correspondientes a La Niña, cuando las temperaturas marinas superficiales en el Pacífico ecuatorial son anormalmente frías, es mayor que en años correspondientes a El Niño. La diferencia en la cantidad de ciclones tropicales de inicio de temporada entre años de La Niña y El Niño fue especialmente notable a mediados del siglo XX, cuando se registró un incremento de las temperaturas ecuatoriales bajas, de acuerdo con un índice de la oscilación decenal del Pacífico. Los mapas combinados de años con conteos bajos y altos de ciclones tropicales cercanos a la costa muestran que las anomalías de la circulación atmosférica vinculadas con bajas temperaturas marinas superficiales en el Pacífico ecuatorial oriental, son consistentes con la trayectoria dominante de los ciclones tropicales hacia el noreste con dirección a la costa occidental de México. ABSTRACT The interannual variability of near-coastal eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones is described using a data set of cyclone tracks constructed from U.S. and Mexican oceanic and atmospheric reports for the period 1951-2006. Near-coastal cyclone counts are enumerated monthly, allowing us to distinguish interannual variability during different phases of the May-November tropical cyclone season. In these data more tropical cyclones affect the Pacific coast in May-July, the early months of the tropical cyclone season, during La Niña years, when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are anomalously cool, than during El Niño years. The difference in early season cyclone counts between La Niña and El Niño years was particularly Atmósfera 26(2), 149-162 (2013) 150 D. S. Gutzler et al. pronounced during the mid-twentieth century epoch when cool equatorial temperatures were enhanced as described by an index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Composite maps from years with high and low near-coastal cyclone counts show that the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are consistent with preferential steering of tropical cyclones northeastward toward the west coast of Mexico

BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations, incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospitalisations in Scotland in the Delta era

EAVE II is supported by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE – The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health, which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund [MC_PC_19004] and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through Public Health Scotland and Scottish Government DG Health and Social Care, the Data and Connectivity National Core Study, led by Health Data Research UK in partnership with the Office for National Statistics and funded by UK Research and Innovation (grant ref MC_PC_20058) and the Lifelong Health and Well-being study as part of the National Core Studies (MC_PC_20030).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Vaccine effectiveness of live attenuated and trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination in 2010/11 to 2015/16:the SIVE II record linkage study

Background: There is good evidence of vaccine effectiveness in healthy individuals but less robust evidence for vaccine effectiveness in the populations targeted for influenza vaccination. The live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) has recently been recommended for children in the UK. The trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) is recommended for all people aged≥65 years and for those aged<65 years who are at an increased risk of complications from influenza infection (e.g. people with asthma). Objective: To examine the vaccine effectiveness of LAIV and TIV. Design: Cohort study and test-negative designs to estimate vaccine effectiveness. A self-case series study to ascertain adverse events associated with vaccination. Setting: A national linkage of patient-level general practice (GP) data from 230 Scottish GPs to the Scottish Immunisation & Recall Service, Health Protection Scotland virology database, admissions to Scottish hospitals and the Scottish death register. Participants: A total of 1,250,000 people. Interventions: LAIV for 2- to 11-year-olds and TIV for older people (aged≥65 years) and those aged<65 years who are at risk of diseases, from 2010/11 to 2015/16. Main outcome measures: The main outcome measures include vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza using real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), influenza-related morbidity and mortality, and adverse events associated with vaccination. Results: Two-fifths (40%) of preschool-aged children and three-fifths (60%) of primary school-aged children registered in study practices were vaccinated. Uptake varied among groups [e.g. most affluent vs. most deprived in 2- to 4-year-olds, odds ratio 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.70 to 1.82]. LAIV-adjusted vaccine effectiveness among children (aged 2-11 years) for preventing RT-PCR laboratoryconfirmed influenza was 21% (95% CI -19% to 47%) in 2014/15 and 58% (95% CI 39% to 71%) in 2015/16. No significant adverse events were associated with LAIV. Among at-risk 18- to 64-year-olds, significant trivalent influenza vaccine effectiveness was found for four of the six seasons, with the highest vaccine effectiveness in 2010/11 (53%, 95% CI 21% to 72%). The seasons with non-significant vaccine effectiveness had low levels of circulating influenza virus (2011/12, 5%; 2013/14, 9%). Among those people aged≥65 years, TIV effectiveness was positive in all six seasons, but in only one of the six seasons (2013/14) was significance achieved (57%, 95% CI 20% to 76%). Conclusions: The study found that LAIV was safe and effective in decreasing RT-PCR-confirmed influenza in children. TIV was safe and significantly effective in most seasons for 18- to 64-year-olds, with positive vaccine effectiveness in most seasons for those people aged≥65 years (although this was significant in only one season). Future work: The UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has recommended the use of adjuvanted injectable vaccine for those people aged≥65 years from season 2018/19 onwards. A future study will be required to evaluate this vaccine. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN88072400

Early pandemic evaluation and enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) : protocol for an observational study using linked Scottish national data

Introduction Following the emergence of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in December 2019 and the ensuing COVID-19 pandemic, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of existing or new therapeutic or preventive interventions are required to ensure that interventions are targeted to those at highest risk of serious illness or death from COVID-19. We aim to repurpose and expand an existing pandemic reporting platform to determine the attack rate of SARS-CoV-2, the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine (once available) and any protective effect conferred by existing or new antimicrobial drugs and other therapies. Methods and analysis A prospective observational cohort will be used to monitor daily/weekly the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic and to evaluate the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions in approximately 5.4 million individuals registered in general practices across Scotland. A national linked dataset of patient-level primary care data, out-of-hours, hospitalisation, mortality and laboratory data will be assembled. The primary outcomes will measure association between: (A) laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, morbidity and mortality, and demographic, socioeconomic and clinical population characteristics; and (B) healthcare burden of COVID-19 and demographic, socioeconomic and clinical population characteristics. The secondary outcomes will estimate: (A) the uptake (for vaccines only); (B) effectiveness; and (C) safety of new or existing therapies, vaccines and antimicrobials against SARS-CoV-2 infection. The association between population characteristics and primary outcomes will be assessed via multivariate logistic regression models. The effectiveness of therapies, vaccines and antimicrobials will be assessed from time-dependent Cox models or Poisson regression models. Self-controlled study designs will be explored to estimate the risk of therapeutic and prophylactic-related adverse events. Ethics and dissemination We obtained approval from the National Research Ethics Service Committee, Southeast Scotland 02. The study findings will be presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals

Effective Feedback to Improve Primary Care Prescribing Safety (EFIPPS) a pragmatic three-arm cluster randomised trial:designing the intervention (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01602705)

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Temporal trends and forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in Scotland using a national real-time patient-level data platform: a statistical modelling study

This study is part of the EAVE II project. EAVE II is funded by the MRC (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE—The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through Public Health Scotland and Scottish Government Director General Health and Social Care. The original EAVE project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme (11/46/23).Background   As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, national-level surveillance platforms with real-time individual person-level data are required to monitor and predict the epidemiological and clinical profile of COVID-19 and inform public health policy. We aimed to create a national dataset of patient-level data in Scotland to identify temporal trends and COVID-19 risk factors, and to develop a novel statistical prediction model to forecast COVID-19-related deaths and hospitalisations during the second wave.  Methods   We established a surveillance platform to monitor COVID-19 temporal trends using person-level primary care data (including age, sex, socioeconomic status, urban or rural residence, care home residence, and clinical risk factors) linked to data on SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests, hospitalisations, and deaths for all individuals resident in Scotland who were registered with a general practice on Feb 23, 2020. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the association between clinical risk groups and time to hospitalisation and death. A survival prediction model derived from data from March 1 to June 23, 2020, was created to forecast hospital admissions and deaths from October to December, 2020. We fitted a generalised additive spline model to daily SARS-CoV-2 cases over the previous 10 weeks and used this to create a 28-day forecast of the number of daily cases. The age and risk group pattern of cases in the previous 3 weeks was then used to select a stratified sample of individuals from our cohort who had not previously tested positive, with future cases in each group sampled from a multinomial distribution. We then used their patient characteristics (including age, sex, comorbidities, and socioeconomic status) to predict their probability of hospitalisation or death.  Findings   Our cohort included 5 384 819 people, representing 98·6% of the entire estimated population residing in Scotland during 2020. Hospitalisation and death among those testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 between March 1 and June 23, 2020, were associated with several patient characteristics, including male sex (hospitalisation hazard ratio [HR] 1·47, 95% CI 1·38–1·57; death HR 1·62, 1·49–1·76) and various comorbidities, with the highest hospitalisation HR found for transplantation (4·53, 1·87–10·98) and the highest death HR for myoneural disease (2·33, 1·46–3·71). For those testing positive, there were decreasing temporal trends in hospitalisation and death rates. The proportion of positive tests among older age groups (>40 years) and those with at-risk comorbidities increased during October, 2020. On Nov 10, 2020, the projected number of hospitalisations for Dec 8, 2020 (28 days later) was 90 per day (95% prediction interval 55–125) and the projected number of deaths was 21 per day (12–29). Interpretation The estimated incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on positive tests recorded in this unique data resource has provided forecasts of hospitalisation and death rates for the whole of Scotland. These findings were used by the Scottish Government to inform their response to reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness in people with asthma: a national test-negative design case-control study

Financial support. The work was funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government under the grant (AUKCAR/14/03) and the NIHR–Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme (13/34/14) for the Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Effectiveness II (SIVE II) study. As principal investigator, C. R. S. received a grant for the SIVE-II project from the NIHR HTA. This work was carried out with the support of the Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research (AUK-AC-2012-01), the Farr Institute (MR/M501633/2), Health Data Research UK (an initiative funded by UK Research and Innovation, Department of Health and Social Care England and the devolved administrations and leading medical research charities), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (under grant agreement No 634446) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (Influenza-Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness). Acknowledgments. The authors thank and acknowledge all colleagues at the Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research for their support in this study. Disclaimer. The funding bodies had no role in the design of the study, review process, analysis, interpretation, or reporting of data. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Health Technology Assessment Programme, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), National Health Service, or the Department of Health. Potential conflicts of interest. The authors: No reported conflicts of interest. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed.Peer reviewedPublisher PDFPublisher PD

COVID-19 in Pregnancy in Scotland (COPS):protocol for an observational study using linked Scottish national data

Funding: EAVE II funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE - The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health [MC_PC_19004], which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through the Scottish Government DG Health and Social Care. COPS receive additional funding from Tommy’s charity (1060508; SC039280). SJS is supported by Wellcome Trust (209560/Z/17/Z).Introduction The effects of SARS-CoV-2 in pregnancy are not fully delineated. We will describe the incidence of COVID-19 in pregnancy at population level in Scotland, in a prospective cohort study using linked data. We will determine associations between COVID-19 and adverse pregnancy, neonatal and maternal outcomes and the proportion of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in neonates associated with maternal COVID-19. Methods and analysis Prospective cohort study using national linked data sets. We will include all women in Scotland, UK, who were pregnant on or became pregnant after, 1 March 2020 (the date of the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Scotland) and all births in Scotland from 1 March 2020 onwards. Individual-level data will be extracted from data sets containing details of all livebirths, stillbirth, terminations of pregnancy and miscarriages and ectopic pregnancies treated in hospital or attending general practice. Records will be linked within the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) platform, which includes primary care records, virology and serology results and details of COVID-19 Community Hubs and Assessment Centre contacts and deaths. We will perform analyses using definitions for confirmed, probable and possible COVID-19 and report serology results (where available). Outcomes will include congenital anomaly, miscarriage, stillbirth, termination of pregnancy, preterm birth, neonatal infection, severe maternal disease and maternal deaths. We will perform descriptive analyses and appropriate modelling, adjusting for demographic and pregnancy characteristics and the presence of comorbidities. The cohort will provide a platform for future studies of the effectiveness and safety of therapeutic interventions and immunisations for COVID-19 and their effects on childhood and developmental outcomes. Ethics and dissemination COVID-19 in Pregnancy in Scotland is a substudy of EAVE II(, which has approval from the National Research Ethics Service Committee. Findings will be reported to Scottish Government, Public Health Scotland and published in peer-reviewed journals.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe