Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions

Modeling Insights into Deuterium Excess as an Indicator of Water Vapor Source Conditions

Deuterium excess (d) is interpreted in conventional paleoclimate reconstructions as a tracer of oceanic source region conditions, such as temperature, where precipitation originates. Previous studies have adopted co-isotopic approaches to estimate past changes in both site and oceanic source temperatures for ice core sites using empirical relationships derived from conceptual distillation models, particularly Mixed Cloud Isotopic Models (MCIMs). However, the relationship between d and oceanic surface conditions remains unclear in past contexts. We investigate this climate-isotope relationship for sites in Greenland and Antarctica using multiple simulations of the water isotope-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE-R general circulation model and apply a novel suite of model vapor source distribution (VSD) tracers to assess d as a proxy for source temperature variability under a range of climatic conditions. Simulated average source temperatures determined by the VSDs are compared to synthetic source temperature estimates calculated using MCIM equations linking d to source region conditions. We show that although deuterium excess is generally a faithful tracer of source temperatures as estimated by the MCIM approach, large discrepancies in the isotope-climate relationship occur around Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum simulation, when precipitation seasonality and moisture source regions were notably different from present. This identified sensitivity in d as a source temperature proxy suggests that quantitative climate reconstructions from deuterium excess should be treated with caution for some sites when boundary conditions are significantly different from the present day. Also, the exclusion of the influence of humidity and other evaporative source changes in MCIM regressions may be a limitation of quantifying source temperature fluctuations from deuterium excess in some instances

Production of metal-free diamond nanoparticles

In this paper, the controlled production of high-quality metal-free diamond nanoparticles is demonstrated. Milling with tempered steel is shown to leave behind iron oxide contamination which is difficult to remove. Milling with SiN alleviates this issue but generates more nondiamond carbon. Thus, the choice of milling materials is critically determined by the acceptable contaminants in the ultimate application. The removal of metal impurities, present in all commercially available nanoparticles, will open new possibilities toward the production of customized diamond nanoparticles, covering the most demanding quantum applications

Mortality associated with delays between clinic entry and ART initiation in resource-limited settings: results of a transition-state model.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the mortality impact of delay in antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation from the time of entry into care. DESIGN: A state-transition Markov process model. This technique allows for assessing mortality before and after ART initiation associated with delays in ART initiation among a general population of ART-eligible patients without conducting a randomized trial. METHODS: We used patient-level data from 3 South African cohorts to determine transition probabilities for pre-ART CD4 count changes and pre-ART and on-ART mortality. For each parameter, we generated probabilities and distributions for Monte Carlo simulations with 1-week cycles to estimate mortality 52 weeks from clinic entry. RESULTS: We estimated an increase in mortality from 11.0% to 14.7% (relative increase of 34%) with a 10-week delay in ART for patients entering care with our pre-ART cohort CD4 distribution. When we examined low CD4 ranges, the relative increase in mortality delays remained similar; however, the absolute increase in mortality rose. For example, among patients entering with CD4 count 50-99 cells per cubic millimeter, 12-month mortality increased from 13.3% with no delay compared with 17.0% with a 10-week delay and 22.9% with a 6-month delay. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in ART initiation, common in routine HIV programs, can lead to important increases in mortality. Prompt ART initiation for patients entering clinical care and eligible for ART, especially those with lower CD4 counts, could be a relatively low-cost approach with a potential marked impact on mortality

Not So Fast Kepler-1513: A Perturbing Planetary Interloper in the Exomoon Corridor

Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) can be induced by a range of physical phenomena, including planet-planet interactions, planet-moon interactions, and stellar activity. Recent work has shown that roughly half of moons would induce fast TTVs with a short period in the range of two-to-four orbits of its host planet around the star. An investigation of the Kepler TTV data in this period range identified one primary target of interest, Kepler-1513 b. Kepler-1513 b is a $8.05^{+0.58}_{-0.40}$ $R_\oplus$ planet orbiting a late G-type dwarf at $0.53^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$ AU. Using Kepler photometry, this initial analysis showed that Kepler-1513 b's TTVs were consistent with a moon. Here, we report photometric observations of two additional transits nearly a decade after the last Kepler transit using both ground-based observations and space-based photometry with TESS. These new transit observations introduce a previously undetected long period TTV, in addition to the original short period TTV signal. Using the complete transit dataset, we investigate whether a non-transiting planet, a moon, or stellar activity could induce the observed TTVs. We find that only a non-transiting perturbing planet can reproduce the observed TTVs. We additionally perform transit origami on the Kepler photometry, which independently applies pressure against a moon hypothesis. Specifically, we find that Kepler-1513 b's TTVs are consistent with an exterior non-transiting $\sim$Saturn mass planet, Kepler-1513 c, on a wide orbit, $\sim$5$\%$ outside a 5:1 period ratio with Kepler-1513 b. This example introduces a previously unidentified cause for planetary interlopers in the exomoon corridor, namely an insufficient baseline of observations.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures. Accepted to MNRAS. Code available at https://github.com/dyahalomi/Kepler151

Reconstruction of the Primordial Power Spectrum by Direct Inversion

We introduce a new method for reconstructing the primordial power spectrum, $P(k)$, directly from observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). We employ Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to invert the radiation perturbation transfer function. The degeneracy of the multipole $\ell$ to wavenumber $k$ linear mapping is thus reduced. This enables the inversion to be carried out at each point along a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) exploration of the combined $P(k)$ and cosmological parameter space. We present best--fit $P(k)$ obtained with this method along with other cosmological parameters.Comment: 23 pages, 9 figure