Towards Probabilistic Causal Discovery, Inference & Explanations for Autonomous Drones in Mine Surveying Tasks

Causal modelling offers great potential to provide autonomous agents the ability to understand the data-generation process that governs their interactions with the world. Such models capture formal knowledge as well as probabilistic representations of noise and uncertainty typically encountered by autonomous robots in real-world environments. Thus, causality can aid autonomous agents in making decisions and explaining outcomes, but deploying causality in such a manner introduces new challenges. Here we identify challenges relating to causality in the context of a drone system operating in a salt mine. Such environments are challenging for autonomous agents because of the presence of confounders, non-stationarity, and a difficulty in building complete causal models ahead of time. To address these issues, we propose a probabilistic causal framework consisting of: causally-informed POMDP planning, online SCM adaptation, and post-hoc counterfactual explanations. Further, we outline planned experimentation to evaluate the framework integrated with a drone system in simulated mine environments and on a real-world mine dataset.Comment: 3 Pages, 1 Figure, To be published in the Proceedings of the "Causality for Robotics: Answering the Question of Why" workshop at the 2023 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS), Adjusted initial submission versio

An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD

The paper presents an update of the structural macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD. The updated version of the model is, similarly as its predecessor, used at the National Bank of Poland for forecasting and policy simulation exercises. NECMOD is a hybrid, medium-scale and partially forward-looking quarterly model with its structure rooted in the economic theory. Great emphasis has been put on modelling of the supply side of the economy and mechanisms that introduce high persistency of shocks. The present version of NECMOD was estimated on the data covering a period from 1995 to 2008. Its main advantage, as compared to the previous version, is a more detailed and coherent approach to the modelling of the external sector block. Now, secular changes in the exchange rate and foreign trade dynamics are explained jointly with reference to the taste-for-variety theory. Moreover, the current version of the model better reflects interdependencies between domestic and external sector, i.e. via exchange rate - wealth channel.Polish economy, macroeconometric model, macroeconomic model

Remote sensing data applied to the reconstruction of volcanic activity in the Valley of the Volcanoes, Central Volcanic Zone, Peru

The Valley of the Volcanoes is a representative area of the extension of the Quaternary Andahua Group with which it overlaps. Some of its eruption centres have renewed activity after more than 500 ka. Recreating the history of the Valley of the Volcanoes activity required satellite data and remote sensing-based methods for visualizing the terrain surface. We used SRTM 30 m DEM, channels 4, 3, 2; Landsat 7, 8 and ASTER images. We verified and refined the obtained data during field works using Structure-from-Motion (SfM) to create of 3D models of selected geoforms. Satellite data allowed us to create: Red Relief Image Map, Topographic Position Index and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps. In the Valley of the Volcanoes, we analysed 12 lava fields with a total area of 326.3 km2 and a volume of approx. 20 km3. We determined the number of eruptions centres that yielded to 41 small lava domes and 23 scoria cones. This domes are classified as monogenetic volcanoes, however five of them can be considered polygenetic e.g. Puca Mauras. We used NDVI to develop chronology map of lavas. This allowed us to extract same-age eruption centres and associated volcanoes that represent the same eruptive time phase connected by fault lines: first generation (0.5–0.27 Ma) NW-SE and NE-SW, second (Pleistocene/Holocene) NNW-SSE and third (Holocene-Historical) again NW-SE and NE-SW. We carried out the reconstruction of the central part of the Valley of the Volcanoes because only there repeated phases of volcanic activity can be inferred with remote sensing and geological mapping. The results of this study led us to indicate that this area should be observed since it is very likely that future eruptions will occur

Thread-based microfluidic sensor for lithium monitoring in saliva

Lithium administration is a commonly prescribed treatment for some mental disorders, e.g. bipolar disorder. However, Li+ level must be regularly monitored to maintain therapeutical effect and avoid adverse side effects. Currently, it is determined in blood, using complex instrumentation, which excludes self-monitoring of lithium concentration by patients themselves. That creates a need for simple, reliable and fast sensors for Li monitoring in biological fluids. In this paper, we introduced a microfluidic thread-based analytical device for optical determination of lithium in saliva. Lithium ion recognition was achieved by incorporating of chromoionophore- ionophore chemistry onto thread. To ensure appropriate selectivity over other alkaline metal ions, it was necessary to include an efficient lithium extractant in the sensing cocktail, alongside its usual components. After optimization of cocktail composition, the developed sensors allowed for lithium determination in a range from 8.8⋅10−4 to 0.95 mol L−1 with remarkable precision of 0.3% (at 10−2 mol L−1) and within a very short time of ca. 10 s. The analytical usefulness of the developed sensors was tested with saliva samples, which were analyzed without any prior processing. A comparison of the obtained results with a reference method revealed high ac- curacy (relative error < ±20% in most cases).This work was founded by Spanish “Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad” (Projects PID2019-103938RB-I00) and Junta de Andalucía (Projects B-FQM-243-UGR18 and P18-RT-2961). The projects were partially supported by European Regional Development Funds (ERDF). These investigations were also supported by Polish National Science Centre (Project PRELUDIUM no. 2021/41/N/ST4/00299)