An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD

Abstract

The paper presents an update of the structural macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD. The updated version of the model is, similarly as its predecessor, used at the National Bank of Poland for forecasting and policy simulation exercises. NECMOD is a hybrid, medium-scale and partially forward-looking quarterly model with its structure rooted in the economic theory. Great emphasis has been put on modelling of the supply side of the economy and mechanisms that introduce high persistency of shocks. The present version of NECMOD was estimated on the data covering a period from 1995 to 2008. Its main advantage, as compared to the previous version, is a more detailed and coherent approach to the modelling of the external sector block. Now, secular changes in the exchange rate and foreign trade dynamics are explained jointly with reference to the taste-for-variety theory. Moreover, the current version of the model better reflects interdependencies between domestic and external sector, i.e. via exchange rate - wealth channel.Polish economy, macroeconometric model, macroeconomic model