War in the Modern Great Power System: 1495–1975

The apparently accelerating arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union and the precarious political conditions existing in many parts of the world have given rise to new anxiety about the possibility of military confrontation between the superpowers. Despite the fateful nature of the risk, we have little knowledge, as Jack S. Levy has pointed out, “of the conditions, processes, and events which might combine to generate such a calamity. “No empirically confirmed theory of the causes of war exists, and the hypotheses—often contradictory—that have been proposed remain untested. As a step toward the formulation of a theory of the causes of war that can be tested against historical experience, Levy has developed a unique data base that will serve as an invaluable resource for students of international conflict in coming years. War in the Modern Great Power System provides a much-needed perspective on the major wars of the past. In this thorough and systematic study, Levy carefully defines the Great Power concept and identifies the Great Powers and their international wars since the late fifteenth century. The resulting compilation of war data is unique because of its five-century span and its focus on a well-defined set of Great Powers. Turning to a quantitative analysis of the characteristics, patterns, and trends in war, Levy demonstrates that although wars between the Great Powers have become increasingly serious in every respect but duration over the last five hundred years, their frequency has diminished. He rejects the popular view that the twentieth century has been the most warlike on record, and he demonstrates that it instead constitutes a return to the historical norm after the exceptionally peaceful nineteenth century. Applying his data to the question whether war is “contagious,” he finds that the likelihood of war is indeed highest when another war is under way, but that this contagious effect disappears after the first war is over. Contrary to the popular “war-weariness” theory, he finds no evidence that war generates an aversion to subsequent war. This study, extending the scientific analysis of war back over five centuries of international history, constitutes a major contribution to our knowledge of international conflict. Jack S. Levy, assistant professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, has contributed studies of international war to International Studies Quarterly, American Journal of Political Science, and the Journal of Conflict Resolution.https://uknowledge.uky.edu/upk_military_history/1011/thumbnail.jp

Major Powers and Militarized Conflict

This article attempts to answer the question of why major powers engage in more active foreign policy behaviors than minor powers. It does so by comparing two explanations for the increased conflict propensity of major powers. The first explanation focuses on major powers’ observable capabilities, while the second stresses their different behavior. We incorporate both into an ultimatum model of conflict in which a state’s cost of conflict consists of both observable and behavioral components. Using data from the period from 1870 to 2001, we empirically illustrate the observable and behavioral differences between major and minor powers. We then utilize a decomposition model to assess the relative significance of the two explanations. The results suggest that most of the difference in conflict propensity between major and minor powers can be attributed to observable differences

Intercomparison of field measurements of nitrous acid (HONO) during the SHARP campaign

Because of the importance of HONO as a radical reservoir, consistent and accurate measurements of its concentration are needed. As part of SHARP (Study of Houston Atmospheric Radical Precursors), time series of HONO were obtained by six different measurement techniques on the roof of the Moody Tower at the University of Houston. Techniques used were long path differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS), stripping coil-visible absorption photometry (SC-AP), long path absorption photometry (LOPAP® ), mist chamber/ion chromatography (MC-IC), quantum cascade-tunable infrared laser differential absorption spectroscopy (QC-TILDAS), and ion drift-chemical ionization mass spectrometry (ID-CIMS). Various combinations of techniques were in operation from 15 April through 31 May 2009. All instruments recorded a similar diurnal pattern of HONO concentrations with higher median and mean values during the night than during the day. Highest values were observed in the final 2 weeks of the campaign. Inlets for the MC-IC, SC-AP, and QC-TILDAS were collocated and agreed most closely with each other based on several measures. Largest differences between pairs of measurements were evident during the day for concentrations ~100 parts per trillion (ppt). Above ~ 200 ppt, concentrations from the SC-AP, MC-IC, and QC-TILDAS converged to within about 20%, with slightly larger discrepancies when DOAS was considered. During the first 2 weeks, HONO measured by ID-CIMS agreed with these techniques, but ID-CIMS reported higher values during the afternoon and evening of the final 4 weeks, possibly from interference from unknown sources. A number of factors, including building related sources, likely affected measured concentrations

Aluminium‐Catalyzed C(sp)−H Borylation of Alkynes

Historically used in stoichiometric hydroalumination chemistry, recent advances have transformed aluminium hydrides into versatile catalysts for the hydroboration of unsaturated multiple bonds. This catalytic ability is founded on the defining reactivity of aluminium hydrides with alkynes and alkenes: 1,2‐hydroalumination of the unsaturated π‐system. This manuscript reports the aluminium hydride catalyzed dehydroborylation of terminal alkynes. A tethered intramolecular amine ligand controls reactivity at the aluminium hydride centre, switching off hydroalumination and instead enabling selective reactions at the alkyne C−H σ‐bond. Chemoselective C−H borylation was observed across a series of aryl‐ and alkyl‐substituted alkynes (21 examples). On the basis of kinetic and density functional theory studies, a mechanism in which C−H borylation proceeds by σ‐bond metathesis between pinacolborane (HBpin) and alkynyl aluminium intermediates is proposed

War and the Reelection Motive: Examining the Effect of Term Limits

This article investigates the relationship between term limits and international conflict. Theories of political survival and diversionary war both imply term limits should play a role in international relations, whereas “permanent referendum theory,” largely motivated by work in American politics, suggests otherwise. Drawing on these theories, we formulate and test competing hypotheses regarding term limits and international crises. Using dyadic militarized interstate disputes data and information on forty-eight democracies with term limits, we uncover strong evidence to support the claim that leaders reaching final terms in office are more likely to initiate conflict than those still subject to reelection. Moreover, we find that the likelihood of conflict initiation is significantly higher during times of recession, but only in the absence of binding term limits. While binding electoral terms and economic downturns are both independently associated with increased levels of conflict initiation, in concert their conditional effects actually counteract each other

Relation of Sources of Systemic Fluoride to Prevalence of Dental Fluorosis

The prevalence of dental fluorosis in a nonfluoridated area was determined and related to the reported fluoride ingestion histories of the children examined. A convenience sample of 543 schoolchildren in rural areas of Michigan was examined for fluorosis using the Tooth Surface Index of Fluorosis. Questionnaires that asked about previous use of fluorides were sent to parents of all children examined. The response rate was 76 percent (412 usable questionnaires). A criterion for inclusion in the data analysis stipulated that only fluorosed surfaces that occurred bilaterally would be included. Fluorosis was found on 7 percent of all tooth surfaces and only in the mild form. Twenty-two percent of the subjects were classified as having fluorosis. Dietary supplement was the only fluoride that was found to be significantly related to the occurrence of fluorosis. A greater proportion of the subjects with fluorosis fisted physicians, rather than dentists, as the source of fluoride prescriptions. The results demonstrate similarities to the fluorosis reported in other studies in non-fluoridated areas, but also suggest the need to minimize the occurrence of fluorosis through proper assessment of a child's fluoride exposure and the judicious use of additional fluoride.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65695/1/j.1752-7325.1989.tb02030.x.pd

Homozygosity for a missense mutation in the 67 kDa isoform of glutamate decarboxylase in a family with autosomal recessive spastic cerebral palsy: parallels with Stiff-Person Syndrome and other movement disorders

Background Cerebral palsy (CP) is an heterogeneous group of neurological disorders of movement and/or posture, with an estimated incidence of 1 in 1000 live births. Non-progressive forms of symmetrical, spastic CP have been identified, which show a Mendelian autosomal recessive pattern of inheritance. We recently described the mapping of a recessive spastic CP locus to a 5 cM chromosomal region located at 2q24-31.1, in rare consanguineous families. Methods Here we present data that refine this locus to a 0.5 cM region, flanked by the microsatellite markers D2S2345 and D2S326. The minimal region contains the candidate gene GAD1, which encodes a glutamate decarboxylase isoform (GAD67), involved in conversion of the amino acid and excitatory neurotransmitter glutamate to the inhibitory neurotransmitter γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). Results A novel amino acid mis-sense mutation in GAD67 was detected, which segregated with CP in affected individuals. Conclusions This result is interesting because auto-antibodies to GAD67 and the more widely studied GAD65 homologue encoded by the GAD2 gene, are described in patients with Stiff-Person Syndrome (SPS), epilepsy, cerebellar ataxia and Batten disease. Further investigation seems merited of the possibility that variation in the GAD1 sequence, potentially affecting glutamate/GABA ratios, may underlie this form of spastic CP, given the presence of anti-GAD antibodies in SPS and the recognised excitotoxicity of glutamate in various contexts

Prospective Validation of the Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade for Acute Heart Failure: The ACUTE Study

Background: Improved risk stratification of acute heart failure in the emergency department may inform physicians\u27 decisions regarding patient admission or early discharge disposition. We aimed to validate the previously-derived Emergency Heart failure Mortality Risk Grade for 7-day (EHMRG7) and 30-day (EHMRG30-ST) mortality. Methods: We conducted a multicenter, prospective validation study of patients with acute heart failure at 9 hospitals. We surveyed physicians for their estimates of 7-day mortality risk, obtained for each patient before knowledge of the model predictions, and compared these with EHMRG7 for discrimination and net reclassification improvement. We also prospectively examined discrimination of the EHMRG30-ST model, which incorporates all components of EHMRG7 as well as the presence of ST-depression on the 12-lead ECG. Results: We recruited 1983 patients seeking emergency department care for acute heart failure. Mortality rates at 7 days in the 5 risk groups (very low, low, intermediate, high, and very high risk) were 0%, 0%, 0.6%, 1.9%, and 3.9%, respectively. At 30 days, the corresponding mortality rates were 0%, 1.9%, 3.9%, 5.9%, and 14.3%. Compared with physician-estimated risk of 7-day mortality (PER7; c-statistic, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.64-0.78) there was improved discrimination with EHMRG7 (c-statistic, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.75-0.87; P=0.022 versus PER7) and with EHMRG7 combined with physicians\u27 estimates (c-statistic, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76-0.88; P=0.003 versus PER7). Model discrimination increased nonsignificantly by 0.014 (95% CI, -0.009-0.037) when physicians\u27 estimates combined with EHMRG7 were compared with EHMRG7 alone (P=0.242). The c-statistic for EHMRG30-ST alone was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.73-0.81) and 30-day model discrimination increased nonsignificantly by addition of physician-estimated risk to 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.82; P=0.187). Net reclassification improvement with EHMRG7 was 0.763 (95% CI, 0.465-1.062) when assessed continuously and 0.820 (0.560-1.080) using risk categories compared with PER7. Conclusions: A clinical model allowing simultaneous prediction of mortality at both 7 and 30 days identified acute heart failure patients with a low risk of events. Compared with physicians\u27 estimates, our multivariable model was better able to predict 7-day mortality and may guide clinical decisions. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02634762

Emergent Geometry and Gravity from Matrix Models: an Introduction

A introductory review to emergent noncommutative gravity within Yang-Mills Matrix models is presented. Space-time is described as a noncommutative brane solution of the matrix model, i.e. as submanifold of \R^D. Fields and matter on the brane arise as fluctuations of the bosonic resp. fermionic matrices around such a background, and couple to an effective metric interpreted in terms of gravity. Suitable tools are provided for the description of the effective geometry in the semi-classical limit. The relation to noncommutative gauge theory and the role of UV/IR mixing is explained. Several types of geometries are identified, in particular "harmonic" and "Einstein" type of solutions. The physics of the harmonic branch is discussed in some detail, emphasizing the non-standard role of vacuum energy. This may provide new approach to some of the big puzzles in this context. The IKKT model with D=10 and close relatives are singled out as promising candidates for a quantum theory of fundamental interactions including gravity.Comment: Invited topical review for Classical and Quantum Gravity. 57 pages, 5 figures. V2,V3: minor corrections and improvements. V4,V5: some improvements, refs adde

Spin-Diffusion Lengths in Metals and Alloys, and Spin-Flipping at Metal/Metal Interfaces: an Experimentalist's Critical Review

In magnetoresistive (MR) studies of magnetic multilayers composed of combinations of ferromagnetic (F) and non-magnetic (N) metals, the magnetic moment (or related 'spin') of each conduction electron plays a crucial role, supplementary to that of its charge. While initial analyses of MR in such multilayers assumed that the direction of the spin of each electron stayed fixed as the electron transited the multilayer, we now know that this is true only in a certain limit. Generally, the spins 'flip' in a distance characteristic of the metal, its purity, and the temperature. They can also flip at F/N or N1/N2 interfaces. In this review we describe how to measure the lengths over which electron moments flip in pure metals and alloys, and the probability of spin-flipping at metallic interfaces. Spin-flipping within metals is described by a spin-diffusion length,l^M(sf), where the metal M = F or N. Spin-diffusion lengths are the characteristic lengths in the current-perpendicular-to-plane (CPP) and lateral non-local (LNL) geometries that we focus upon in this review. In certain simple cases, l^N(sf) sets the distance over which the CPP-MR and LNL-MR decrease as the N-layer thickness (CPP-MR) or N-film length (LNL) increases, and l^F(sf) does the same for increase of the CPP-MR with increasing F-layer thickness. Spin-flipping at M1/M2 interfaces can be described by a parameter, delta(M1/M2), which determines the spin-flipping probability, P = 1 - exp(-delta). Increasing delta(M1/M2) usually decreases the MR. We list measured values of these parameters and discuss the limitations on their determinations.Comment: Invited Review, to appear in J. Phys. Cond. Matter. 50 pages, 18 figures. The new version contains additional material and revisions to improve clarit