Three great american disinflations

In this paper, we examine three famous episodes of deliberate deflation (or disinflation) in U.S. history, including episodes following the Civil War, World War I, and the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s. These episodes were associated with widely divergent effects on the real economy, which we attribute both to differences in the policy actions undertaken, and to the transparency and credibility of the monetary authorities. We attempt to account for the salient features of each episode within the context of a stylized DSGE model. Our model simulations indicate how a more predictable policy of gradual deflation could have helped avoid the sharp post-WWI depression. But our analysis also suggests that the strong argument for gradualism under a transparent monetary regime becomes less persuasive if the monetary authority lacks credibility; in this case, an aggressive policy stance (as under Volcker) can play a useful signalling role by making a policy shift more apparent to private agents. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E5

Three Great American Disinflations

This paper analyzes the role of transparency and credibility in accounting for the widely divergent macroeconomic effects of three episodes of deliberate monetary contraction: the post-Civil War deflation, the post-WWI deflation, and the Volcker disinflation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model in which private agents use optimal filtering to infer the central bank's nominal anchor, we demonstrate that the salient features of these three historical episodes can be explained by differences in the design and transparency of monetary policy, even without any time variation in economic structure or model parameters. For a policy regime with relatively high credibility, our analysis highlights the benefits of a gradualist approach (as in the 1870s) rather than a sudden change in policy (as in 1920-21). In contrast, for a policy institution with relatively low credibility (such as the Federal Reserve in late 1980), an aggressive policy stance can play an important signalling role by making the policy shift more evident to private agents.

Three Great American Disinflations

In this paper, we examine three famous episodes of deliberate deflation (or disinflation) in U.S. history, including episodes following the Civil War, World War I, and the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s. These episodes were associated with widely divergent effects on the real economy, which we attribute both to differences in the policy actions undertaken, and to the transparency and credibility of the monetary authorities. We attempt to account for the salient features of each episode within the context of a stylized DSGE model. Our model simulations indicate how a more predictable policy of gradual deflation could have helped avoid the sharp post-WWI depression. But our analysis also suggests that the strong argument for gradualism under a transparent monetary regime becomes less persuasive if the monetary authority lacks credibility; in this case, an aggressive policy stance (as under Volcker) can play a useful signalling role by making a policy shift more apparent to private agents.DSGE Model, Credibility, Deflation

New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling

This paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modelling. It argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro-founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings.Price setting practices, macro modellling

Making Voting Easier: Convenience Voting in the 2008 Presidential Election

In this study we analyze the choice of voting mode in the 2008 presidential election. We use a large-sample survey with national coverage that allows us to overcome limitations of previous studies. Our analysis provides a number of insights into some of the important debates about convenience voting. Among other things, we find little support for the hypothesis that convenience voting methods have partisan implications; although we do find voter attributes that lead to the choice of some particular convenience voting mode. Results like these have important implications for future moves towards convenience voting and the design of new outreach campaigns.Pew Charitable Trust

On chirality of slime mould

© 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. Left-right patterning and lateralised behaviour is an ubiquitous aspect of plants and animals. The mechanisms linking cellular chirality to the large-scale asymmetry of multicellular structures are incompletely understood, and it has been suggested that the chirality of living cells is hardwired in their cytoskeleton. We examined the question of biased asymmetry in a unique organism: the slime mould Physarum polycephalum, which is unicellular yet possesses macroscopic, complex structure and behaviour. In laboratory experiment using a T-shape, we found that Physarum turns right in more than 74% of trials. The results are in agreement with previously published studies on asymmetric movement of muscle cells, neutrophils, liver cells and growing neural filaments, and for the first time reveal the presence of consistently-biased laterality in the fungi kingdom. Exact mechanisms of the slime mould's direction preference remain unknown

The Empirical Status of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy: A Review of Meta-Analyses

The efficacy of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) has been evaluated in many randomized controlled trials investigating a broad range of target conditions. This paper reviews the meta-analytic evidence on ACT. The 20 included meta-analyses reported 100 controlled effect sizes across n = 12,477 participants. Controlled effect sizes were grouped by target conditions and comparison group. Results showed that ACT is efficacious for all conditions examined, including anxiety, depression, substance use, pain, and transdiagnostic groups. Results also showed that ACT was generally superior to inactive controls (e.g. waitlist, placebo), treatment as usual, and most active intervention conditions (excluding CBT). Weaknesses and areas for future development are discussed

Evaluation of temperature–pulse centile charts in identifying serious bacterial illness: observational cohort study

BACKGROUND: Distinguishing serious bacterial infection (SBI) from milder/self-limiting infections is often difficult. Interpretation of vital signs is confounded by the effect of temperature on pulse and respiratory rate. Temperature-pulse centile charts have been proposed to improve the predictive value of pulse rate in the clinical assessment of children with suspected SBI. OBJECTIVES: To assess the utility of proposed temperature-pulse centile charts in the clinical assessment of children with suspected SBI. STUDY DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: The predictive value for SBI of temperature-pulse centile categories, pulse centile categories and Advanced Paediatric Life Support (APLS) defined tachycardia were compared among 1360 children aged 3 months to 10 years presenting with suspected infection to a hospital emergency department (ED) in England; and among 325 children who presented to hospitals in the UK with meningococcal disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: SBI. RESULTS: Among children presenting to the ED, 55 (4.0%) had SBI. Pulse centile category, but not temperature-pulse centile category, was strongly associated with risk of SBI (p=0.0005 and 0.288, respectively). APLS defined tachycardia was also strongly associated with SBI (OR 2.90 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.26), p=0.0002). Among children with meningococcal disease, higher pulse and temperature-pulse centile categories were both associated with more severe disease (p=0.004 and 0.041, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Increased pulse rate is an important predictor of SBI, supporting National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence recommendations that pulse rate be routinely measured in the assessment of febrile children. Temperature-pulse centile charts performed more poorly than pulse alone in this study. Further studies are required to evaluate their utility in monitoring the clinical progress of sick children over time