Development of a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes in Hong Kong

Introduction Patients with diabetes mellitus are risk of premature death. In this study, we developed a machine learning-driven predictive risk model for all-cause mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using multiparametric approach with data from different domains. Research design and methods This study used territory-wide data of patients with type 2 diabetes attending public hospitals or their associated ambulatory/outpatient facilities in Hong Kong between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2009. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality. The association of risk variables and all-cause mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. Machine and deep learning approaches were used to improve overall survival prediction and were evaluated with fivefold cross validation method. Results A total of 273 678 patients (mean age: 65.4±12.7 years, male: 48.2%, median follow-up: 142 (IQR=106–142) months) were included, with 91 155 deaths occurring on follow-up (33.3%; annualized mortality rate: 3.4%/year; 2.7 million patient-years). Multivariate Cox regression found the following significant predictors of all-cause mortality: age, male gender, baseline comorbidities, anemia, mean values of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, total cholesterol, triglyceride, HbA1c and fasting blood glucose (FBG), measures of variability of both HbA1c and FBG. The above parameters were incorporated into a score-based predictive risk model that had a c-statistic of 0.73 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.77), which was improved to 0.86 (0.81 to 0.90) and 0.87 (0.84 to 0.91) using random survival forests and deep survival learning models, respectively. Conclusions A multiparametric model incorporating variables from different domains predicted all-cause mortality accurately in type 2 diabetes mellitus. The predictive and modeling capabilities of machine/deep learning survival analysis achieved more accurate predictions

Clinical characteristics, genetic basis and healthcare resource utilisation and costs in patients with catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia: A retrospective cohort study

Background: This study examined the clinical characteristics, genetic basis, healthcare utilisation and costs of catecholaminergic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) patients from a Chinese city. Methods: This was a territory-wide retrospective cohort study of consecutive CPVT patients at public hospitals or clinics in Hong Kong. Healthcare resource utilisation for accident and emergency (A&E), inpatient and outpatient attendances were analysed over 19 years (2001–2019) followed by calculations of annualised costs (in USD). Results: Sixteen patients with a median presentation age (interquartile range (IQR) of 11 (9–14) years old) were included. Fifteen patients (93.8%) were initially symptomatic. Ten patients had both premature ventricular complexes (PVCs) and ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF). One patient had PVCs without VT/VF. Genetic tests were performed on 14 patients (87.5%). Eight (57.1%) tested positive for the ryanodine receptor 2 (RyR2) gene. Seven variants have been described elsewhere (c.14848G>A, c.12475C>A, c.7420A>G, c.11836G>A, c.14159T>C, c.10046C>T and c.7202G>A).c.14861C>G is a novel RyR2 variant not been reported outside this cohort. Patients were treated with beta-blockers (n = 16), amiodarone (n = 3) and verapamil (n = 2). Sympathectomy (n = 8) and implantable-cardioverter defibrillator implantation (n = 3) were performed. Over a median follow-up of 13.3 years (IQR: 8.4–18.1) years, six patients exhibited incident VT/VF. At the patient level, the median (IQR) annualised costs for A&E, inpatient and outpatient attendances were $66 (40–95),$10521 (5240–66887) and $791 (546–1105), respectively. Conclusions: All patients presented before the age of 19. The yield of genetic testing was 57%. The most expensive attendance type was inpatient stays, followed by outpatients and A&E attendances

Incident heart failure and myocardial infarction in sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 vs. dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor users

Aims This study aimed to compare the rates of major cardiovascular adverse events in sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2I) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4I) users in a Chinese population. SGLT2I and DPP4I are increasingly prescribed for type 2 diabetes mellitus patients. However, few population-based studies are comparing their effects on incident heart failure or myocardial infarction. Methods and results This was a population-based retrospective cohort study using the electronic health record database in Hong Kong, including type 2 diabetes mellitus patients receiving either SGLT2I or DPP4I from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2020. Propensity score matching was performed in a 1:1 ratio based on demographics, past comorbidities, and non-SGLT2I/DPP4I medications with nearest neighbour matching (caliper = 0.1). Univariable and multivariable Cox models were used to identify significant predictors for new-onset heart failure, new-onset myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Sensitivity analyses with competing risk models and multiple propensity score matching approaches were conducted. A total of 41 994 patients (58.89% males, median admission age at 58 years old, interquartile range [IQR]: 51.2–65.3) were included with a median follow-up of 5.6 years (IQR: 5.32–5.82). In the matched cohort, SGLT2I use was significantly associated with lower risks of new-onset heart failure (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.66, 0.81], P < 0.0001), myocardial infarction (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: [0.73, 0.90], P < 0.0001), cardiovascular mortality (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: [0.53, 0.84], P < 0.001), and all-cause mortality (HR: 0.26, 95% CI: [0.24, 0.29], P < 0.0001) after adjusting for significant demographics, past comorbidities, and non-SGLT2I/DPP4I medications. Conclusions SGLT2 inhibitors are protective against adverse cardiovascular events including new-onset heart failure, myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. The prescription of SGLT2I is preferred when taken into consideration individual cardiovascular and metabolic risk profiles in addition to drug–drug interactions

Gender-specific clinical risk scores incorporating blood pressure variability for predicting incident dementia

Introduction: The present study examined the gender-specific prognostic value of blood pressure (BP) and its variability in the prediction of dementia risk and developed a score system for risk stratification. Materials and Methods This was a retrospective, observational population-based cohort study of patients admitted to government-funded family medicine clinics in Hong Kong between January 1, 2000 and March 31, 2002 with at least 3 blood pressure measurements. Gender-specific risk scores for dementia were developed and tested. Results The study consisted of 74 855 patients, of whom 3550 patients (incidence rate: 4.74%) developed dementia over a median follow-up of 112 months (IQR= [59.8–168]). Nonlinear associations between diastolic/systolic BP measurements and the time to dementia presentation were identified. Gender-specific dichotomized clinical scores were developed for males (age, hypertension, diastolic and systolic BP and their measures of variability) and females (age, prior cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal diseases, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, stroke, mean corpuscular volume, monocyte, neutrophil, urea, creatinine, diastolic and systolic BP and their measures of variability). They showed high predictive strengths for both male (hazard ratio [HR]: 12.83, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.15–14.33, P value &amp;lt; .0001) and female patients (HR: 26.56, 95% CI: 14.44–32.86, P value &amp;lt; .0001). The constructed gender-specific scores outperformed the simplified systems without considering BP variability (C-statistic: 0.91 vs 0.82), demonstrating the importance of BP variability in dementia development. Conclusion Gender-specific clinical risk scores incorporating BP variability can accurately predict incident dementia and can be applied clinically for early disease detection and optimized patient management

Comparison of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor on the risks of new-onset atrial fibrillation, stroke and mortality in diabetic patients: A propensitysScore-matched study in Hong Kong

Objective To compare the effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2Is) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4Is) on adverse outcomes in diabetic patients in Hong Kong. Methods This was a retrospective population-based cohort study of type 2 diabetes mellitus patients (n = 72,746) treated with SGLT2I or DPP4I between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, in Hong Kong. Patients with exposure to both DPP4I and SGLT2I therapy, without complete demographics or mortality data, or who had prior atrial fibrillation (AF) were excluded. The study outcomes were new-onset AF, stroke/transient ischemic attack, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality. Propensity score matching (1:1 ratio) between SGLT2I and DPP4I users was performed. Results The unmatched study cohort included 21,713 SGLT2I users and 39,510 DPP4I users (total: n = 61,233 patients; 55.37% males, median age: 62.7 years [interquartile range (IQR): 54.6–71.9 years]). Over a median follow-up of 2030 (IQR: 1912–2117) days, 2496 patients (incidence rate [IR]: 4.07%) developed new-onset AF, 2179 patients (IR: 3.55%) developed stroke/transient ischemic attack, 1963 (IR: 3.20%) died from cardiovascular causes and 6607 patients (IR: 10.79%) suffered from all-cause mortality. After propensity score matching (SGLT2I: n = 21,713; DPP4I: n = 21,713), SGLT2I users showed lower incidence of new-onset AF (1.96% vs. 2.78%, standardized mean difference [SMD] = 0.05), stroke (1.80% vs. 3.52%, SMD = 0.11), cardiovascular mortality (0.47% vs. 1.56%, SMD = 0.11) and all-cause mortality (2.59% vs. 7.47%, SMD = 0.22) compared to DPP4I users. Cox regression found that SGLT2I users showed lower risk of new-onset AF (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.56, 0.83], P = 0.0001), stroke (HR: 0.64, 95% CI: [0.53, 0.79], P < 0.0001), cardiovascular mortality (HR: 0.39, 95% CI: [0.27, 0.56], P < 0.0001) and all-cause mortality (HR: 0.44, 95% CI: [0.37, 0.51], P < 0.0001) after adjusting for significant demographics, past comorbidities, medications and laboratory tests. Conclusions Based on real-world data of type 2 diabetic patients in Hong Kong, SGLT2I use was associated with lower risk of incident AF, stroke/transient ischemic attack, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality outcomes compared to DPP4I use

Sodium-glucose Cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) Inhibitors vs. Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 (DPP4) inhibitors for new-onset dementia: A propensity score-matched population-based study with competing risk analysis

The effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2I) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4I) on new-onset cognitive dysfunction in type 2 diabetes mellitus remain unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of the two novel antidiabetic agents on cognitive dysfunction by comparing the rates of dementia between SGLT2I and DPP4I users. This was a population-based cohort study of type 2 diabetes mellitus patients treated with SGLT2I and DPP4I between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2019 in Hong Kong. Exclusion criteria were <1-month exposure or exposure to both medication classes, or prior diagnosis of dementia or major neurological/psychiatric diseases. Primary outcomes were new-onset dementia, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's. Secondary outcomes were all-cause, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular mortality. A total of 13,276 SGLT2I and 36,544 DPP4I users (total = 51,460; median age: 66.3 years old [interquartile range (IQR): 58-76], 55.65% men) were studied (follow-up: 472 [120-792] days). After 1:2 matching (SGLT2I: = 13,283; DPP4I: = 26,545), SGLT2I users had lower incidences of dementia (0.19 vs. 0.78%, < 0.0001), Alzheimer's (0.01 vs. 0.1%, = 0.0047), Parkinson's disease (0.02 vs. 0.14%, = 0.0006), all-cause (5.48 vs. 12.69%, < 0.0001), cerebrovascular (0.88 vs. 3.88%, < 0.0001), and cardiovascular mortality (0.49 vs. 3.75%, < 0.0001). Cox regression showed that SGLT2I use was associated with lower risks of dementia (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.27-0.61], < 0.0001), Parkinson's (HR:0.28, 95% CI: [0.09-0.91], = 0.0349), all-cause (HR:0.84, 95% CI: [0.77-0.91], < 0.0001), cardiovascular (HR:0.64, 95% CI: [0.49-0.85], = 0.0017), and cerebrovascular (HR:0.36, 95% CI: [0.3-0.43], < 0.0001) mortality. The use of SGLT2I is associated with lower risks of dementia, Parkinson's disease, and cerebrovascular mortality compared with DPP4I use after 1:2 ratio propensity score matching. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2021 Mui, Zhou, Lee, Leung, Lee, Chou, Tsang, Wai, Liu, Wong, Chang, Tse and Zhang.

Lack of benefits for prevention of cardiovascular disease with aspirin therapy in type 2 diabetic patients - a longitudinal observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The risk-benefit ratio of aspirin therapy in prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains contentious, especially in type 2 diabetes. This study examined the benefit and harm of low-dose aspirin (daily dose < 300 mg) in patients with type 2 diabetes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a longitudinal observational study with primary and secondary prevention cohorts based on history of CVD at enrolment. We compared the occurrence of primary composite (non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke and vascular death) and secondary endpoints (upper GI bleeding and haemorrhagic stroke) between aspirin users and non-users between January 1995 and July 2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 6,454 patients (mean follow-up: median [IQR]: 4.7 [4.4] years), usage of aspirin was 18% (n = 1,034) in the primary prevention cohort (n = 5731) and 81% (n = 585) in the secondary prevention cohort (n = 723). After adjustment for covariates, in the primary prevention cohort, aspirin use was associated with a hazard-ratio of 2.07 (95% CI: 1.66, 2.59, p < 0.001) for primary endpoint. There was no difference in CVD event rate in the secondary prevention cohort. Overall, aspirin use was associated with a hazard-ratio of 2.2 (1.53, 3.15, p < 0.001) of GI bleeding and 1.71 (1.00, 2.95, p = 0.051) of haemorrhagic stroke. The absolute risk of aspirin-related GI bleeding was 10.7 events per 1,000 person-years of treatment.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In Chinese type 2 diabetic patients, low dose aspirin was associated with a paradoxical increase in CVD risk in primary prevention and did not confer benefits in secondary prevention. In addition, the risk of GI bleeding in aspirin users was rather high.</p

Association between gout and atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis of observational studies

Background: Gout is a systemic inflammatory arthritis characterized by the deposition of monosodium urate crystals due to hyperuricemia. Previous studies have explored the link between gout and atrial fibrillation (AF). Given the increasing prevalence and incidence of gout, there is a need to quantify the relationship between gout and the risk of AF. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on this topic. Methods: PubMed and Embase were searched for studies that reported the association between gout and AF using the following search term: (‘Gout’ and ‘Arrhythmia’). The search period was from the start of the database to 3rd August 2018 with no language restrictions. Results: A total of 75 and 22 articles were retrieved from PubMed and Embase, respectively. Of these, four observational studies (three cohort studies, one case-control study) including 659,094 patients were included. Our meta-analysis demonstrated that gout was significantly associated with increased risk of AF (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.31; 95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.70; P = 0.05; I2 = 99%) after adjusting for significant comorbidities and confounders. Conclusions: Our meta-analysis confirms the significant relationship between gout and AF. More data are needed to determine whether this risk can be adequately reduced by urate-lowering therapy

Early transient suppression of immune checkpoint proteins T-cell immunoglobulin mucin-3 and programmed cell death-1 in peripheral blood lymphocytes after blastocyst transfer is associated with successful implantation

Objective To compare the changing peripheral levels of immune checkpoint proteins T-cell immunoglobulin mucin-3 (Tim-3)/galectin-9 (Gal-9), and programmed cell death-1 (PD-1)/programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) over a 9-day period after blastocyst transfer between women who did and did not conceive. Design Prospective observational study. Setting University teaching hospital. Patients(s) Fifty-one infertile women undergoing day-5 blastocyst transfer. Intervention(s) Serial blood samples obtained on the day of embryo transfer (ET), and 3, 6, and 9 days afterward for measurement of membranous Tim-3 and PD-1 expression on various peripheral lymphocytes by flow cytometry, and serum concentrations of ligands Gal-9 and PD-L1 by ELISA. Main Outcome Measure(s) Membranous Tim-3 and PD-1 expression on lymphocytes and serum Gal-9 and PD-L1 concentrations and comparison of results between pregnant and nonpregnant women. Result(s) In women who conceived, the measurements exhibited three different types of response: [1] a transient and statistically significant reduction of Tim-3+NK-like T cells, Tim-3+/PD-1+CD8+ T cells, and Tim-3+/PD-1+CD4+ T cells that returned back to baseline level 9 days after ET; [2] a reduction followed by steady increase to above baseline level on day 9 (Tim-3+CD56dimNK cells); [3] a steady increase in expression after ET to reach a level statistically significantly higher than that of the baseline by day 9 (Tim-3+CD56brightNK cells). Women who did not conceive showed no statistically significant fluctuation in any of the parameters measured across the four time pointswith exception of increased Tim-3 expression on NK cells on day 9. Conclusion(s) Successful blastocyst implantation is associated with a reduction of Tim-3 and PD-1 expression in peripheral lymphocytes on days 3 and 6 that is no longer apparent on day 9

Cardiovascular outcomes and hospitalizations in Asian patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors: a population-based study.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have known associations with cardiotoxicity. However, a representative quantification of the adverse cardiovascular events and cardiovascular attendances amongst Asian users of ICI has been lacking. This retrospective cohort study identified all ICI users in Hong Kong, China, between 2013-2021. All patients were followed up until the end of 2021 for the primary outcome of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; a composite of cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke). Patients with prior diagnosis of any component of MACE were excluded from all MACE analyses. In total, 4324 patients were analysed (2905 (67.2%) males; median age 63.5 years old (interquartile range 55.4-70.7 years old); median follow-up 1.0 year (interquartile range 0.4-2.3 years)), of whom 153 were excluded from MACE analyses due to prior events. MACE occurred in 116 (2.8%) with an incidence rate (IR) of 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4, 2.0] events per 100 patient-years; IR was higher within the first year of follow-up (2.9 [2.3, 3.5] events per 100 patient-years). Cardiovascular hospitalization(s) occurred in 188 (4.4%) with 254 episodes (0.5% of all episodes) and 1555 days of hospitalization (1.3% of all hospitalized days), for whom the IR of cardiovascular hospitalization was 5.6 [4.6, 6.9] episodes per 100 person-years with 52.9 [39.8, 70.3] days' stay per 100 person-years. Amongst Asian users of ICI, MACE was uncommon, and a small proportion of hospitalizations was cardiovascular in nature. Most MACE and cardiovascular hospitalizations occurred during the first year after initiating ICI. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.