Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

The genomic and immune landscapes of lethal metastatic breast cancer

The detailed molecular characterization of lethal cancers is a prerequisite to understanding resistance to therapy and escape from cancer immunoediting. We performed extensive multi-platform profiling of multi-regional metastases in autopsies from 10 patients with therapy-resistant breast cancer. The integrated genomic and immune landscapes show that metastases propagate and evolve as communities of clones, reveal their predicted neo-antigen landscapes, and show that they can accumulate HLA loss of heterozygosity (LOH). The data further identify variable tumor microenvironments and reveal, through analyses of T cell receptor repertoires, that adaptive immune responses appear to co-evolve with the metastatic genomes. These findings reveal in fine detail the landscapes of lethal metastatic breast cancer

Direct observation of the dead-cone effect in quantum chromodynamics

At particle collider experiments, elementary particle interactions with large momentum transfer produce quarks and gluons (known as partons) whose evolution is governed by the strong force, as described by the theory of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) [1]. The vacuum is not transparent to the partons and induces gluon radiation and quark pair production in a process that can be described as a parton shower [2]. Studying the pattern of the parton shower is one of the key experimental tools in understanding the properties of QCD. This pattern is expected to depend on the mass of the initiating parton, through a phenomenon known as the dead-cone effect, which predicts a suppression of the gluon spectrum emitted by a heavy quark of mass m and energy E, within a cone of angular size m/E around the emitter [3]. A direct observation of the dead-cone effect in QCD has not been possible until now, due to the challenge of reconstructing the cascading quarks and gluons from the experimentally accessible bound hadronic states. Here we show the first direct observation of the QCD dead-cone by using new iterative declustering techniques [4, 5] to reconstruct the parton shower of charm quarks. This result confirms a fundamental feature of QCD, which is derived more generally from its origin as a gauge quantum field theory. Furthermore, the measurement of a dead-cone angle constitutes the first direct experimental observation of the non-zero mass of the charm quark, which is a fundamental constant in the standard model of particle physics.The direct measurement of the QCD dead cone in charm quark fragmentation is reported, using iterative declustering of jets tagged with a fully reconstructed charmed hadron.In particle collider experiments, elementary particle interactions with large momentum transfer produce quarks and gluons (known as partons) whose evolution is governed by the strong force, as described by the theory of quantum chromodynamics (QCD). These partons subsequently emit further partons in a process that can be described as a parton shower which culminates in the formation of detectable hadrons. Studying the pattern of the parton shower is one of the key experimental tools for testing QCD. This pattern is expected to depend on the mass of the initiating parton, through a phenomenon known as the dead-cone effect, which predicts a suppression of the gluon spectrum emitted by a heavy quark of mass $m_{\rm{Q}}$ and energy $E$, within a cone of angular size $m_{\rm{Q}}$/$E$ around the emitter. Previously, a direct observation of the dead-cone effect in QCD had not been possible, owing to the challenge of reconstructing the cascading quarks and gluons from the experimentally accessible hadrons. We report the direct observation of the QCD dead cone by using new iterative declustering techniques to reconstruct the parton shower of charm quarks. This result confirms a fundamental feature of QCD. Furthermore, the measurement of a dead-cone angle constitutes a direct experimental observation of the non-zero mass of the charm quark, which is a fundamental constant in the standard model of particle physics