River Flow Prediction for Future Climate Using Long Series of Multi-Site Synthetic Data and MIKE SHE Model

A new simulation of daily flow for Kaczawa River, south-west Poland for extra long series of generated meteorological data (comparing to previous research) and selected climate change scenarios are presented. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios vs. SRES are introduced for simulations. The flow simulation in the river catchment is made using MIKE SHE hydrological model while the multisite data are generated by spatial weather generator SWGEN. Simulations are done for 2040 and 2060 while the simulations for the year 2000 are used as a background. The large number of new simulated series determined by the lead time, three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and number of generated years (1000 for each case) is equal to 7000 for a single station. Finally, Pdf function for flow is presented as well probability of exceedance of maximum flow

Simulation of the minimum annual river flows based on the RCP climatic scenario, time horizon up to 2060-2080 and the Kaczawa River

In this paper a new simulations of minimum daily flow for Kaczawa River a left side tributary of the Odra River in south-west Poland are presented. Generated data were made based on very long series of 35 years of observed data and 24 sites of meteorological stations for south-west Poland gathered from the the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute (IMGW). For the data generation the spatial weather generator SWGEN producing the multisite daily time series was applied. Data were generated for the present (the year 2000 are used as a background) as well for future climate condition for 2060 and 2080 according Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The flow simulation in the river catchment is made using MIKE SHE hydrological model. Simulations are done for 2060 and 2080. The large number of new simulated series determined by the lead time, two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and number of generated years (1000 for each case) is equal to 5000 for a single station. Finally, Lognormal Pdf function for the minimum flow is presented as well probability of exceedance of minimum values

River Flow Prediction for Future Climate Using Long Series of Multi-Site Synthetic Data and MIKE SHE Model

A new simulation of daily flow for Kaczawa River, south-west Poland for extra long series of generated meteorological data (comparing to previous research) and selected climate change scenarios are presented. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios vs. SRES are introduced for simulations. The flow simulation in the river catchment is made using MIKE SHE hydrological model while the multisite data are generated by spatial weather generator SWGEN. Simulations are done for 2040 and 2060 while the simulations for the year 2000 are used as a background. The large number of new simulated series determined by the lead time, three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and number of generated years (1000 for each case) is equal to 7000 for a single station. Finally, Pdf function for flow is presented as well probability of exceedance of maximum flow

Simulation of the minimum annual river flows based on the RCP climatic scenario, time horizon up to 2060-2080 and the Kaczawa River

In this paper a new simulations of minimum daily flow for Kaczawa River a left side tributary of the Odra River in south-west Poland are presented. Generated data were made based on very long series of 35 years of observed data and 24 sites of meteorological stations for south-west Poland gathered from the the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute (IMGW). For the data generation the spatial weather generator SWGEN producing the multisite daily time series was applied. Data were generated for the present (the year 2000 are used as a background) as well for future climate condition for 2060 and 2080 according Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The flow simulation in the river catchment is made using MIKE SHE hydrological model. Simulations are done for 2060 and 2080. The large number of new simulated series determined by the lead time, two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and number of generated years (1000 for each case) is equal to 5000 for a single station. Finally, Lognormal Pdf function for the minimum flow is presented as well probability of exceedance of minimum values

Application of spatial weather generator for the assessment of climate change impacts on a river runoff

In this study, the impacts of climate change on streamflow are investigated. The ensemble of outputs from three different Global Circulation Models models: GISS, CCCM, GFDL developed for the emission scenario A1B were analyzed to infer projected changes in climatological conditions for the region of the Upper and Middle Odra basin. Obtaining hydrological scenarios of future changes for the scale of subcatchment required simulating short-term and fine scaled weather patterns for this area. SWGEN model (Spatial Weather GENerator) was applied to downscale projected changes of climatological conditions to the ones required by hydrological model temporal and spatial resolution. Daily time series of solar radiation, temperature and precipitation were generated for the reference period 1981-2000 and for the time horizon 2030 and 2050. The generated data from SWGEN model were integrated in the hydrological model NAM to simulate streamflow under changed conditions with daily time step. The results show considerable changes in annual and seasonal runoff daily distributions for selected study catchment in the future time horizons of 2030 and 2050.12

Comparison of daily flows simulated for the year 2060 on the Kaczawa River for various scenarios of climate change by simple time series analysis

In this paper a time series analysis for daily flow simulations according three climate change scenario for Kaczawa River a left side tributary of the Odra River in south-west Poland is presented. The flow sequences were simulated using the hydrological model MIKE SHE and the spatial SWGEN meteorological data generator. Meteorological data for the hydrological model were generated based on data from 24 meteorological stations and 35-year daily data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management of the National Research Institute (IMGW). Data were generated for future climate condition for 2060 according GISS Model E, HadCM3, and GFDL R15 scenarios as well for the present conditions. The year 2000 was used as a reference year. The results obtained on the basis of a simple time series analysis point to small changes in flows for current and simulated conditions for 2060 for the Kaczawa River

Partial-Body Irradiation in Patients with Prostate Cancer Treated with IMRT Has Little Effect on the Composition of Serum Proteome

Partial body irradiation during cancer radiotherapy (RT) induces a response of irradiated tissues that could be observed at the level of serum proteome. Here we aimed to characterize the response to RT in group of patients treated because of prostate cancer. Five consecutive blood samples were collected before, during, and after the end of RT in a group of 126 patients who received definitive treatment with a maximum dose of 76 Gy. Serum peptidome, which was profiled in the 2000–16,000 Da range using MALDI-MS. Serum proteins were identified and quantified using the shotgun LC-MS/MS approach. The majority of changes in serum peptidome were detected between pre-treatment samples and samples collected after 3–4 weeks of RT (~25% of registered peptides changed their abundances significantly), yet the intensity of observed changes was not correlated significantly with the degree of acute radiation toxicity or the volume of irradiated tissues. Furthermore, there were a few serum proteins identified, the abundances of which were different in pre-RT and post-RT samples, including immunity and inflammation-related factors. Observed effects were apparently weaker than in comparable groups of head and neck cancer patients in spite of similar radiation doses and volumes of irradiated tissues in both groups. We concluded that changes observed at the level of serum proteome were low for this cohort of prostate cancer patients, although the specific components involved are associated with immunity and inflammation, and reflect the characteristic acute response of the human body to radiation