Variation in inbreeding rates across the range of Northern Spotted Owls (\u3ci\u3eStrix occidentalis caurina\u3c/i\u3e): Insights from over 30 years of monitoring data

Inbreeding has been difficult to quantify in wild populations because of incomplete parentage information. We applied and extended a recently developed framework for addressing this problem to infer inbreeding rates in Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) across the Pacific Northwest, USA. Using pedigrees from 14,187 Northern Spotted Owls, we inferred inbreeding rates for 14 types of matings among relatives that produce pedigree inbreeding coefficients of F=0.25 or F=0.125. Inbreeding was most common in the Washington Cascades, where an estimated 15% of individuals are inbred. Inbreeding was lowest in western Oregon (3.5%) and northern California (2.7%), and intermediate for the Olympic Peninsula of Washington (6.1%). Estimates from the Olympic Peninsula were likely underestimates because of small sample sizes and the presence of few pedigrees capable of resolving inbreeding events. Most inbreeding resulted from matings between full siblings or half siblings, although a high rate of inbreeding from mother–son pairs was identified in the Olympic Peninsula. Geographic variation in inbreeding rates may reflect population declines and bottlenecks that have been detected in prior investigations. We show that there is strong selection against inbred birds. Only 3 of 44 inbred birds were later identified as parents (6.8%), whereas 2,823 of 10,380 birds that represented a comparable cross section of the data were later seen as reproducing parents (27.2%). Habitat loss and competition with Barred Owls (S. varia) remain primary threats to Northern Spotted Owls. However, given the negative consequences of inbreeding, Spotted Owl populations in Washington with suitable habitat and manageable numbers of Barred Owls may benefit from translocations of individuals from Oregon and California to introduce new genetic variation and reduce future inbreeding events. La endogamia ha sido dif´ıcil de cuantificar en las poblaciones silvestres debido a la falta de informaci ´on sobre los parentescos. Aplicamos y extendimos un marco conceptual recientemente desarrollado para encarar el problema de inferir las tasas de endogamia en Strix occidentalis caurina a trav´es del noroeste del Pac´ıfico, EEUU. Usando los pedigr´ıes provenientes de 14187 individuos, inferimos las tasas de endogamia para 14 tipos de apareamiento entre parientes que producen coeficientes de endogamia de pedigr´ı de F=0.25 o F=0.125. La endogamia fue ma´s com´un en las Cascadas de Washington, donde se estima que 15% de los individuos son endoga´micos. La endogamia fue menor en el oeste de Oreg´on (3.5%) y el norte de California (2.7%), e intermedia en la Pen´ınsula Ol´ımpica de Washington (6.1%). Las estimaciones de la Pen´ınsula Ol´ımpica fueron probablemente subestimadas debido a los peque ˜nos tama ˜nos de muestreo y a la presencia de pocos pedigr´ıes capaces de resolver los eventos de endogamia. La mayor´ıa de la endogamia result ´o de los apareamientos entre hermanos completos o medios hermanos, aunque se identific ´o una alta tasa de endogamia en parejas madre/hijo en la Pen´ınsula Ol´ımpica. La variaci ´on geogra´ fica en las tasas de endogamia puede reflejar disminuciones poblacionales y cuellos de botella que han sido detectados en investigaciones previas. Mostramos que hay una fuerte selecci ´on contra las aves endoga´micas. Solo tres de 44 aves endoga´micas fueron ma´s tarde identificadas como progenitores (6.8%), mientras que 2823 de 10380 aves que representaron una secci ´on transversal comparable de datos fueron vistas ma´s tarde como progenitores reproductivos (27.2%). La p´erdida de ha´bitat y la competencia con Strix varia sigue siendo la principal amenaza para S. o. caurina. Sin embargo, dadas las consecuencias negativas de la endogamia, las poblaciones de S. occidentalis en Washington con ha´bitat adecuado y n´umeros manejables de Strix varia pueden beneficiarse de traslocaciones de individuos de Oreg´on y California para introducir nueva variaci ´on gen´etica y reducir futuros eventos de endogamia

Range-Wide Declines of Northern Spotted Owl Populations in the Pacific Northwest: A Meta-Analysis

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) inhabits older coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest and has been at the center of forest management issues in this region. The immediate threats to this federally listed species include habitat loss and competition with barred owls (Strix varia), which invaded from eastern North America. We conducted a prospective meta-analysis to assess population trends and factors affecting those trends in northern spotted owls using 26 years of survey and capture-recapture data from 11 study areas across the owls\u27 geographic range to analyze demographic traits, rates of population change, and occupancy parameters for spotted owl territories. We found that northern spotted owl populations experienced significant declines of 6–9% annually on 6 study areas and 2–5% annually on 5 other study areas. Annual declines translated to ≤35% of the populations remaining on 7 study areas since 1995. Barred owl presence on spotted owl territories was the primary factor negatively affecting apparent survival, recruitment, and ultimately, rates of population change. Analysis of spotted and barred owl detections in an occupancy framework corroborated the capture-recapture analyses with barred owl presence increasing territorial extinction and decreasing territorial colonization of spotted owls. While landscape habitat components reduced the effect of barred owls on these rates of decline, they did not reverse the negative trend. Our analyses indicated that northern spotted owl populations potentially face extirpation if the negative effects of barred owls are not ameliorated while maintaining northern spotted owl habitat across their range

Invader removal triggers competitive release in a threatened avian predator

Changes in the distribution and abundance of invasive species can have far-reaching ecological consequences. Programs to control invaders are common but gauging the effectiveness of such programs using carefully controlled, large-scale field experiments is rare, especially at higher trophic levels. Experimental manipulations coupled with long-term demographic monitoring can reveal the mechanistic underpinnings of interspecific competition among apex predators and suggest mitigation options for invasive species. We used a large-scale before-after control-impact removal experiment to investigate the effects of an invasive competitor, the barred owl (Strix varia), on the population dynamics of an iconic old-forest native species, the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). Removal of barred owls had a strong, positive effect on survival of sympatric spotted owls and a weaker but positive effect on spotted owl dispersal and recruitment. After removals, the estimated mean annual rate of population change for spotted owls stabilized in areas with removals (0.2% decline per year), but continued to decline sharply in areas without removals (12.1% decline per year). The results demonstrated that the most substantial changes in population dynamics of northern spotted owls over the past two decades were associated with the invasion, population expansion, and subsequent removal of barred owls. Our study provides experimental evidence of the demographic consequences of competitive release, where a threatened avian predator was freed from restrictions imposed on its population dynamics with the removal of a competitively dominant invasive species

Estimating density and detection of bobcats in fragmented midwestern landscapes using spatial capture–recapture data from camera traps

Camera‐trapping data analyzed with spatially explicit capture–recapture (SCR) models can provide a rigorous method for estimating density of small populations of elusive carnivore species. We sought to develop and evaluate the efficacy of SCR models for estimating density of a presumed low‐density bobcat (Lynx rufus) population in fragmented landscapes of west‐central Illinois, USA. We analyzed camera‐trapping data from 49 camera stations in a 1,458‐km2 area deployed over a 77‐day period from 1 February to 18 April 2017. Mean operational time of cameras was 52 days (range = 32–67 days). We captured 23 uniquely identifiable bobcats 113 times and recaptured these same individuals 90 times; 15 of 23 (65.2%) individuals were recaptured at ≥2 camera traps. Total number of bobcat capture events was 139, of which 26 (18.7%) were discarded from analyses because of poor image quality or capture of only a part of an animal in photographs. Of 113 capture events used in analyses, 106 (93.8%) and 7 (6.2%) were classified as positive and tentative identifications, respectively; agreement on tentative identifications of bobcats was high (71.4%) among 3 observers. We photographed bobcats at 36 of 49 (73.5%) camera stations, of which 34 stations were used in analyses. We estimated bobcat density at 1.40 individuals (range = 1.00–2.02)/100 km 2. Our modeled bobcat density estimates are considerably below previously reported densities (30.5 individuals/100 km 2) within the state, and among the lowest yet recorded for the species. Nevertheless, use of remote cameras and SCR models was a viable technique for reliably estimating bobcat density across west‐central Illinois. Our research establishes ecological benchmarks for understanding potential effects of colonization, habitat fragmentation, and exploitation on future assessments of bobcat density using standardized methodologies that can be compared directly over time. Further application of SCR models that quantify specific costs of animal movements (i.e., least‐cost path models) while accounting for landscape connectivity has great utility and relevance for conservation and management of bobcat populations across fragmented Midwestern landscapes

Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site-level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the subspecies geographic range collected during 1993–2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did or did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades

SNAPSHOT USA 2020: A second coordinated national camera trap survey of the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

Managing wildlife populations in the face of global change requires regular data on the abundance and distribution of wild animals, but acquiring these over appropriate spatial scales in a sustainable way has proven challenging. Here we present the data from Snapshot USA 2020, a second annual national mammal survey of the USA. This project involved 152 scientists setting camera traps in a standardized protocol at 1485 locations across 103 arrays in 43 states for a total of 52,710 trap-nights of survey effort. Most (58) of these arrays were also sampled during the same months (September and October) in 2019, providing a direct comparison of animal populations in 2 years that includes data from both during and before the COVID-19 pandemic. All data were managed by the eMammal system, with all species identifications checked by at least two reviewers. In total, we recorded 117,415 detections of 78 species of wild mammals, 9236 detections of at least 43 species of birds, 15,851 detections of six domestic animals and 23,825 detections of humans or their vehicles. Spatial differences across arrays explained more variation in the relative abundance than temporal variation across years for all 38 species modeled, although there are examples of significant site-level differences among years for many species. Temporal results show how species allocate their time and can be used to study species interactions, including between humans and wildlife. These data provide a snapshot of the mammal community of the USA for 2020 and will be useful for exploring the drivers of spatial and temporal changes in relative abundance and distribution, and the impacts of species interactions on daily activity patterns. There are no copyright restrictions, and please cite this paper when using these data, or a subset of these data, for publication

Measurement of the double-differential muon-neutrino charged-current inclusive cross section in the NOvA near detector

We report cross-section measurements of the final-state muon kinematics for νμ charged-current interactions in the NOvA near detector using an accumulated 8.09×1020 protons on target in the NuMI beam. We present the results as a double-differential cross section in the observed outgoing muon energy and angle, as well as single-differential cross sections in the derived neutrino energy, Eν, and square of the four-momentum transfer, Q2. We compare the results to inclusive cross-section predictions from various neutrino event generators via χ2 calculations using a covariance matrix that accounts for bin-to-bin correlations of systematic uncertainties. These comparisons show a clear discrepancy between the data and each of the tested predictions at forward muon angle and low Q2, indicating a missing suppression of the cross section in current neutrino-nucleus scattering models

Measurement of the Double-Differential Muon-neutrino Charged-Current Inclusive Cross Section in the NOvA Near Detector

We report cross-section measurements of the final-state muon kinematics for \numu charged-current interactions in the NOvA near detector using an accumulated 8.09$\times10^{20}$ protons-on-target (POT) in the NuMI beam. We present the results as a double-differential cross section in the observed outgoing muon energy and angle, as well as single-differential cross sections in the derived neutrino energy, $E_\nu$, and square of the four-momentum transfer, $Q^2$. We compare the results to inclusive cross-section predictions from various neutrino event generators via $\chi^2$ calculations using a covariance matrix that accounts for bin-to-bin correlations of systematic uncertainties. These comparisons show a clear discrepancy between the data and each of the tested predictions at forward muon angle and low $Q^2$, indicating a missing suppression of the cross section in current neutrino-nucleus scattering models

Seasonal Variation of Multiple-Muon Cosmic Ray Air Showers Observed in the NOvA Detector on the Surface

We report the rate of cosmic ray air showers with multiplicities exceeding 15 muon tracks recorded in the NOvA Far Detector between May 2016 and May 2018. The detector is located on the surface under an overburden of 3.6 meters water equivalent. We observe a seasonal dependence in the rate of multiple-muon showers, which varies in magnitude with multiplicity and zenith angle. During this period, the effective atmospheric temperature and surface pressure ranged between 210 K to 230 K and 940mbar to 990mbar, respectively; the shower rates are anti-correlated with the variation in the effective temperature. The variations are about 30% larger for the highest multiplicities than the lowest multiplicities and 20% larger for showers near the horizon than vertical showers

SNAPSHOT USA 2019: a coordinated national camera trap survey of the United States

With the accelerating pace of global change, it is imperative that we obtain rapid inventories of the status and distribution of wildlife for ecological inferences and conservation planning. To address this challenge, we launched the SNAPSHOT USA project, a collaborative survey of terrestrial wildlife populations using camera traps across the United States. For our first annual survey, we compiled data across all 50 states during a 14-week period (17 August-24 November of 2019). We sampled wildlife at 1,509 camera trap sites from 110 camera trap arrays covering 12 different ecoregions across four development zones. This effort resulted in 166,036 unique detections of 83 species of mammals and 17 species of birds. All images were processed through the Smithsonian's eMammal camera trap data repository and included an expert review phase to ensure taxonomic accuracy of data, resulting in each picture being reviewed at least twice. The results represent a timely and standardized camera trap survey of the United States. All of the 2019 survey data are made available herein. We are currently repeating surveys in fall 2020, opening up the opportunity to other institutions and cooperators to expand coverage of all the urban-wild gradients and ecophysiographic regions of the country. Future data will be available as the database is updated at eMammal.si.edu/snapshot-usa, as will future data paper submissions. These data will be useful for local and macroecological research including the examination of community assembly, effects of environmental and anthropogenic landscape variables, effects of fragmentation and extinction debt dynamics, as well as species-specific population dynamics and conservation action plans. There are no copyright restrictions; please cite this paper when using the data for publication