The cost and impact of male circumcision on HIV/AIDS in Botswana

The HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be a major issue facing Botswana, with overall adult HIV prevalence estimated to be 25.7 percent in 2007. This paper estimates the cost and impact of the draft Ministry of Health male circumcision strategy using the UNAIDS/WHO Decision-Makers' Programme Planning Tool (DMPPT). Demographic data and HIV prevalence estimates from the recent National AIDS Coordinating Agency estimations are used as input to the DMPPT to estimate the impact of scaling-up male circumcision on the HIV/AIDS epidemic. These data are supplemented by programmatic information from the draft Botswana National Strategy for Safe Male Circumcision, including information on unit cost and program goals. Alternative scenarios were developed in consultation with stakeholders. Results suggest that scaling-up adult and neonatal circumcision to reach 80% coverage by 2012 would result in averting almost 70,000 new HIV infections through 2025, at a total net cost of US$47 million across that same period. This results in an average cost per HIV infection averted of US$689. Changing the target year to 2015 and the scale-up pattern to a linear pattern results in a more evenly-distributed number of MCs required, and averts approximately 60,000 new HIV infections through 2025. Other scenarios explored include the effect of risk compensation and the impact of increasing coverage of general prevention interventions. Scaling-up safe male circumcision has the potential to reduce the impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana significantly; program design elements such as feasible patterns of scale-up and inclusion of counselling are important in evaluating the overall success of the program

Impediments for the Uptake of the Botswana Government's Male Circumcision Initiative for HIV Prevention

Botswana remains one of the countries with high prevalence of HIV infection with a population prevalence rate of 17.6 in 2008. In 2009, the Ministry of Health launched male circumcision as an additional strategy to the already existing HIV preventive efforts. The purpose of this paper is to share what the participants of a survey to evaluate a short-term male circumcision communication strategy in seven health districts of Botswana reported as impediments for the program's uptake. Qualitative data were obtained from 32 key informants and 36 focus group discussions in 2011. Content analysis method was used to analyze data and to derive themes and subthemes. Although male circumcision was generally acceptable to communities in Botswana, the uptake of the program was slow, and participants attributed that to a number of challenges or impediments that were frustrating the initiative. The impediments were organized into sociocultural factors, knowledge/informational factors, and infrastructural and system factors

Cultural adaption, translation, preliminary reliability and validity of psychological and behavioural measures for adolescents living with HIV in Botswana:A multi-stage approach

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a significant public health issue among young people living in Botswana. There is a need for reliable and valid psychological and behavioural measures of causally important constructs for this population. We developed a new HIV knowledge measure for use with 10–19-year-olds living with HIV and translated and adapted additional tools measuring HIV adjustment, HIV disclosure cognitions and affect, HIV communication beliefs, antiretroviral (ART) adherence, and self-esteem, using a multi-step process. This included (1) item generation for the HIV knowledge questionnaire, (2) translation including back-translation and expert review, (3) cognitive interviewing, (4) reliability testing (5) preliminary validity analysis. The HIV Knowledge Questionnaire for Adolescents living with HIV, the Illness Cognition Questionnaire, the Adolescent HIV Disclosure Cognition and Affect Scale, the HIV Communication Beliefs Scale, and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale showed acceptable or good reliability and some evidence of validity for adolescents living with HIV in Botswana

Outcomes of the Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme from 2002 to 2010: a longitudinal analysis

Background Short-term mortality rates among patients with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub- Saharan Africa are higher than those recorded in high-income countries, but systematic long-term comparisons have not been made because of the scarcity of available data. We analysed the eff ect of the implementation of Botswana’s national ART programme, known as Masa, from 2002 to 2010. Methods The Masa programme started on Jan 21, 2002. Patients who were eligible for ART according to national guidelines had their data collected prospectively through a clinical information system developed by the Botswana Ministry of Health. A dataset of all available electronic records for adults (≥18 years) who had enrolled by April 30, 2010, was extracted and sent to the study team. All data were anonymised before analysis. The primary outcome was mortality. To assess the eff ect of loss to follow-up, we did a series of sensitivity analyses assuming varying proportions of the population lost to follow-up to be dead. Findings We analysed the records of 126 263 patients, of whom 102 713 had documented initiation of ART. Median follow-up time was 35 months (IQR 14–56), with a median of eight follow-up visits (4–14). 15 270 patients were deemed lost to follow-up by the end of the study. 63% (78 866) of the study population were women; median age at baseline was 34 years for women (IQR 29–41) and 38 years for men (33–45). 10 230 (8%) deaths were documented during the 9 years of the study. Mortality was highest during the fi rst 3 months after treatment initiation at 12·8 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 12·4–13·2), but decreased to 1·16 deaths per 100 person-years (1·12–1·2) in the second year of treatment, and to 0·15 deaths per 100 person-years (0·09–0·25) over the next 7 years of follow-up. In each calendar year after the start of the Masa programme in 2002, average CD4 cell counts at enrolment increased (from 101 cells/μL [IQR 44–156] in 2002, to 191 cells/μL [115–239] in 2010). In each year, the proportion of the total enrolled population who died in that year decreased, from 63% (88 of 140) in 2002, to 0·8% (13 of 1599) in 2010. A sensitivity analysis assuming that 60% of the population lost to follow-up had died gave 3000 additional deaths, increasing overall mortality from 8% to 11–13%. Interpretation The Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme reduced mortality among adults with HIV to levels much the same as in other low-income or middle-income countries

The potential impact of country-level migration networks on HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Botswana

Generalised HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa show substantial geographical variation in prevalence, which is considered when designing epidemic control strategies. We hypothesise that the migratory behaviour of the general population of countries in sub-Saharan Africa could have a substantial effect on HIV epidemics and challenge the elimination effort. To test this hypothesis, we used census data from 2017 to identify, construct, and visualise the migration network of the population of Botswana, which has one of the most severe HIV epidemics worldwide. We found that, over 12 months, approximately 14% of the population moved their residency from one district to another. Four types of migration occurred: urban-to-urban, rural-to-urban, urban-to-rural, and rural-to-rural. Migration is leading to a marked geographical redistribution of the population, causing high rates of population turnover in some areas, and further concentrating the population in urban areas. The migration network could potentially be having a substantial effect on the HIV epidemic of Botswana: changing the location of high-transmission areas, generating cross-country transmission corridors, creating source-sink dynamics, and undermining control strategies. Large-scale migration networks could present a considerable challenge to eliminating HIV in Botswana and in other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and should be considered when designing epidemic control strategies

Male Circumcision Initiative for HIV Prevention

Botswana remains one of the countries with high prevalence of HIV infection with a population prevalence rate of 17.6 in 2008. In 2009, the Ministry of Health launched male circumcision as an additional strategy to the already existing HIV preventive efforts. The purpose of this paper is to share what the participants of a survey to evaluate a short-term male circumcision communication strategy in seven health districts of Botswana reported as impediments for the program's uptake. Qualitative data were obtained from 32 key informants and 36 focus group discussions in 2011. Content analysis method was used to analyze data and to derive themes and subthemes. Although male circumcision was generally acceptable to communities in Botswana, the uptake of the program was slow, and participants attributed that to a number of challenges or impediments that were frustrating the initiative. The impediments were organized into sociocultural factors, knowledge/informational factors, and infrastructural and system factors

The role of migration networks in the development of Botswanas generalized HIV epidemic.

The majority of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, where epidemics are generalized. For these epidemics to develop, populations need to be mobile. However, the role of population-level mobility in the development of generalized HIV epidemics has not been studied. Here we do so by studying historical migration data from Botswana, which has one of the most severe generalized HIV epidemics worldwide; HIV prevalence was 21% in 2021. The country reported its first AIDS case in 1985 when it began to rapidly urbanize. We hypothesize that, during the development of Botswanas epidemic, the population was extremely mobile and the country was highly connected by substantial migratory flows. We test this mobility hypothesis by conducting a network analysis using a historical time series (1981-2011) of micro-census data from Botswana. Our results support our hypothesis. We found complex migration networks with very high rates of rural-to-urban, and urban-to-rural, migration: 10% of the population moved annually. Mining towns (where AIDS cases were first reported, and risk behavior was high) were important in-flow and out-flow migration hubs, suggesting that they functioned as core groups for HIV transmission and dissemination. Migration networks could have dispersed HIV throughout Botswana and generated the current hyperendemic epidemic

The role of migration networks in the development of Botswana’s generalized HIV epidemic

The majority of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, where epidemics are generalized. For these epidemics to develop, populations need to be mobile. However, the role of population-level mobility in the development of generalized HIV epidemics has not been studied. Here we do so by studying historical migration data from Botswana, which has one of the most severe generalized HIV epidemics worldwide; HIV prevalence was 21% in 2021. The country reported its first AIDS case in 1985 when it began to rapidly urbanize. We hypothesize that, during the development of Botswana’s epidemic, the population was extremely mobile and the country was highly connected by substantial migratory flows. We test this mobility hypothesis by conducting a network analysis using a historical time series (1981–2011) of micro-census data from Botswana. Our results support our hypothesis. We found complex migration networks with very high rates of rural-to-urban, and urban-to-rural, migration: 10% of the population moved annually. Mining towns (where AIDS cases were first reported, and risk behavior was high) were important in-flow and out-flow migration hubs, suggesting that they functioned as ‘core groups’ for HIV transmission and dissemination. Migration networks could have dispersed HIV throughout Botswana and generated the current hyperendemic epidemic