Pension Reform in a Highly Informalized Post-Soviet Economy

Pension reform is now on the national agenda in most post-Soviet countries. These countries have highly informalized economies, which means that large areas of economic activity go unreported to the authorities. This paper deals with the problem of pension reform in a highly informalized post-Soviet economy, Ukraine. It includes an analysis of causes and consequences of informalization, a general description and analysis of trends in the Ukrainian pension system, and a discussion of different approaches to reform. The paper describes an approach to modeling labor and capital flows between the formal and informal sectors using a gravity model. It also reports and discusses results of simulations of different scenarios of pension reform in Ukraine. Policy-relevant findings of the study are as follows: • Public trust in reform is crucial. Therefore, in designing and implementing reforms exceptional attention should be paid to trust-building measures; • Debt-financed transition to a fully-funded pension system in an informalized post-Soviet economy can lead to higher efficiency gains than a tax-financed transition. This is due to an alleviation of the tax burden, which encourages a decline in unreported economic activity. • Provided that public trust in the reform is sufficient, the larger the fully-funded system, the greater will be the decline in informalization.pension reform, informal economy, transition, post-Soviet economy, Ukraine

Using administrative data to estimate the population and applications

Research findings report of USING ADMINISTRATIVE DATA TO ESTIMATE THE POPULATION AND APPLICATIONS project. A project in the ESRC Understanding Population Trends and Processes Programme, maintained by the ReStore repository and archived to NCRM Eprints 2022

Personal Care Savings Bonds: A New Way of Saving Towards Social Care in Later Life

An ageing population ushers in a completely new era requiring society to find new solutions to funding social care and looking after older people. This is not a temporary issue that will go away and there are no quick economic fixes. In the U.K. it is estimated that the population aged 75+ will double from 5 million to 10 million by 2040. Financial building blocks are needed to pay for social care that will be sustained for decades and provide extra security for the individual. This paper proposes a new savings product called Personal Care Savings Bonds (PCSBs), which are designed to encourage saving for social care by providing extra money at the time of greatest financial need. PCSBs are likely to be attractive to older people who have only a basic pension and modest savings, but also to other age groups, as they not only attract interest but also pay prizes. Based on reasonable assumptions, the paper shows how the fund could build into a substantial investment worth £70 billion with regular monthly prize pay-outs. In concept they are somewhat similar to Premium Bonds, another U.K. personal savings product that has been successfully operating since 1956

Decomposition of changes to disease and disability life expectancy in england

Research findings report ofETHNIC RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION OVER TIME AND AGE COHORTS IN ENGLAND AND WALES project. A project in the ESRC Understanding Population Trends and Processes Programme, maintained by the ReStore repository and archived to NCRM Eprints 2022

Paying for Care Costs in Later Life Using the Value in People’s Homes

With the number of U.K. citizens aged 75+ doubling to 10 million by 2040, and with 1.3 million people already receiving social care services in England alone, social care funding is a key public policy challenge. The government has launched a set of reforms designed to get social care funding onto a sustainable footing by establishing a new level for what individuals and the state will pay. The reforms are designed to encourage individuals to explore how best to use their available wealth and assets to meet care costs through a mixed system of local authority and private sector care-funding options. One option is to use the value in the home to bridge the cost between out-of-pocket costs and care home fees. In this article, we consider two new financial arrangements designed to meet the needs of people in different financial circumstances based on releasing equity from the home. These are an equity-backed insurance product and an “equity bank” that lets a person draw down an income from their hom

Means Testing Adult Social Care in England

With the number of U.K. citizens aged 75 and over doubling to 10 million by 2040, social care funding remains a key policy challenge. The Care Act 2014 included reforms designed to make care funding sustainable, by establishing a new level for what individuals and the state will pay in England. However, the Government has postponed their introduction until 2020 amid concerns about cost. This paper uses the delay to investigate the current and proposed means testing formulae and finds fault with both. It proposes an alternative formula called the ‘‘preferred formula’’, which it argues is fairer and does not require capital limits. It further suggests that the proposed life-time cap care on costs is unnecessary since the preferred formula contains a mechanism that automatically limits asset depletion. Using examples, the research tackles an issue with all means testing which is that it disincentivises saving, so preventing more money entering the care system

Using Geometry to Evaluate Strategic Road Proposals in Orbital-Radial Cities

This paper uses geometry to evaluate major road proposals in cities with road networks consisting of orbital and radial routes. The type of geometry used is a development of the Karlsruhe or Moscow metric after the cities where it was identified, although the results have wider applicability. The paper begins with a detailed consideration of the relationship between route speeds, junction access and service areas. New urban patterns are presented using optimal space filling techniques in which the aim is to maximise drive-time coverage with the minimum number of junctions. The method is then refined to allow for effects such as congestion and interstitial access. The results are then used in a case study to evaluate a well-known strategic road plan for London first proposed in the 1940s. There follows a general discussion about the policy and planning implications for London and further possible developments of the techniques presented

Using Administrative Data to Count Local Populations

There is growing evidence that official population statistics based on the decennial census are inaccurate at the local authority level—the fundamental administrative unit of the UK. This paper investigates the use of locally available administrative data sets for counting populations. The method uses truth tables for combining different data sources with different population coverage according to a defined and therefore replicable set of rules. The result is timelier and geographically more flexible data which is more cost-effective to produce than a survey-based census. Associated techniques for linking diverse data sources at individual and household level are briefly discussed. The methodology is then applied to administrative data from a London borough with about 170,000 people. The results are evaluated and compared with other population sources. The paper concludes by discussing potential improvements including scaling up the work to cover multiple local authorities. The practicalities of using alternative central government data sets are briefly considered. A sequel paper in this journal provides examples of key applications of this approach at local level

Using Administrative Data to Count and Classify Households with Local Applications

Households rather than individuals are being increasingly used for research and to target and evaluate public policy. As a result accurate and timely household level statistics have become an increasing necessity especially at local level. However, official sources of information on households are fragmented with significant gaps and inaccuracies that limit their usefulness. This paper reviews present statistical arrangements and then describes a new approach to data collection and household classification which combine various local administrative sources. An intermediate step is the creation of local population counts which are converted into household types and these methods are described in two companion papers previously published in this journal. The utility and advantages of the approach are demonstrated using the example of the six Olympic London Boroughs for whom the data collection was undertaken in 2011 and the analysis subsequently

Waist-to-Height Ratio Is More Predictive of Years of Life Lost than Body Mass Index

Objective: Our aim was to compare the effect of central obesity (measured by waist-to-height ratio, WHtR) and total obesity (measured by body mass index, BMI) on life expectancy expressed as years of life lost (YLL), using data on British adults. Methods: A Cox proportional hazards model was applied to data from the prospective Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS) and the cross sectional Health Survey for England (HSE). The number of years of life lost (YLL) at three ages (30, 50, 70 years) was found by comparing the life expectancies of obese lives with those of lives at optimum levels of BMI and WHtR. Results: Mortality risk associated with BMI in the British HALS survey was similar to that found in US studies. However, WHtR was a better predictor of mortality risk. For the first time, YLL have been quantified for different values of WHtR. This has been done for both sexes separately and for three representative ages. Conclusion: This study supports the simple message ‘‘Keep your waist circumference to less than half your height’’. The use of WHtR in public health screening, with appropriate action, could help add years to life