Probabilistic Political Viability: A Methodology for Predictive Political Economy

Currently available political economic tools are not very useful for predicting the outcomes of real-world policy problems. Researchers have limited information on which to assign parameters to the mappings from policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. We present a method for evaluating the viability of political alternatives in complex settings and apply it to an ongoing California water policy debate. Certain options would be "robustly politically viable" if stakeholder groups trusted that they would be implemented as negotiated. Once we incorporate institutional mistrust into the model, none of the alternatives are robustly politically viable.

Wine Taxes, Production, Aging and Quality

We consider the impact of taxes on the quantity and quality produced of goods, such as wine, for which market value accrues with age by a competitive producer. Any pair of taxes that includes a volumetric sales tax and any one of three other types of tax – an ad valorem sales tax, an ad valorem storage tax, or a volumetric storage tax – spans the full range of feasible tax revenues with positive tax rates. For any tax system that reduces quality relative to the firm’s no-tax equilibrium, there is another tax system that increases tax revenues, eliminates the quality distortion, and does not increase the quantity distortion. Many wine industry observers believe that most, if not all, existing tax systems tend to result in the suboptimal provision of quality. Our results suggest that the wide variety of wine tax systems is not prima facie evidence that these systems, or most of them, are inefficient. Provided the system includes a volumetric sales tax it may be efficient, regardless of which of the other instruments, or how many of them, are used. Assertions regarding inefficiency must be evaluated on an empirical case-by-case basis. Our analysis provides a theoretical framework for such research.aging, Alchian-Allen effect, tax policy, wine

A Fully Calibrated Generalized CES Programming Model of Agricultural Supply

The use of prior information on supply elasticities to calibrate programming models of agricultural supply has been advocated repeatedly in the recent literature (Heckelei and Britz 2005). Yet, Mérel and Bucaram (2009) have shown that the dual goal of calibrating such models to a reference allocation while replicating an exogenous set of supply elasticities is not always feasible. This article lays out the methodological foundation to exactly calibrate programming models of agricultural supply using generalized CES production functions. We formally derive the necessary and sufficient conditions under which such models can be calibrated to replicate the reference allocation while displaying crop-specific supply responses that are consistent with prior information. When it exists, the solution to the exact calibration problem is unique. From a microeconomic perspective, the generalized CES model is preferable to quadratic models that have been used extensively in policy analysis since the publication of Howitt’s (1995) Positive Mathematical Programming. The two types of specifications are also compared on the basis of their flexibility towards calibration, and it is shown that, provided myopic calibration is feasible, the generalized CES model can calibrate larger sets of supply elasticities than its quadratic counterpart. Our calibration criterion has relevance both for calibrated positive mathematical programming models and for “well-posed” models estimated through generalized maximum entropy following Heckelei and Wolff (2003), where it is deemed appropriate to include prior information regarding the value of own-price supply elasticities.Positive mathematical programming, generalized CES, supply elasticities, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics,

A study of adult education in the Jewish Community centers of Greater Boston

Thesis (M.S.)--Boston Universit

HI Imaging of LGS 3 and an Apparently Interacting High-Velocity Cloud

We present a 93' by 93' map of the area near the Local Group dwarf galaxy LGS 3, centered on an HI cloud 30' away from the galaxy. Previous authors associated this cloud with LGS 3 but relied on observations made with a 36' beam. Our high-resolution (3.4'), wide-field Arecibo observations of the region reveal that the HI cloud is distinct from the galaxy and suggest an interaction between the two. We point out faint emission features in the map that may be gas that has been tidally removed from the HI cloud by LGS 3. We also derive the rotation curve of the cloud and find that it is in solid-body rotation out to a radius of 10', beyond which the rotation velocity begins to decline. Assuming a spherical geometry for the cloud, the implied mass is 2.8 x 10^7 (d/Mpc) M_{Sun}, where d is the distance in Mpc. The observed HI mass is 5.5 x 10^6 (d/Mpc)^2 M_{Sun}, implying that the cloud is dark-matter dominated unless its distance is at least 1.9 Mpc. We propose that the cloud is a high-velocity cloud that is undergoing a tidal interaction with LGS 3 and therefore is located roughly 700 kpc away from the Milky Way. The cloud then contains a total mass of ~2.0 x 10^7 M_{Sun}, 82% of which consists of dark matter.Comment: 5 pages, 2 color figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Observation of an optical event horizon in a silicon-on-insulator photonic wire waveguide

We report on the first experimental observation of an optical analogue of an event horizon in integrated nanophotonic waveguides, through the reflection of a continuous wave on an intense pulse. The experiment is performed in a dispersion-engineered silicon-on-insulator waveguide. In this medium, solitons do not suffer from Raman induced self-frequency shift as in silica fibers, a feature that is interesting for potential applications of optical event horizons. As shown by simulations, this also allows the observation of multiple reflections at the same time on fundamental solitons ejected by soliton fission.SCOPUS: ar.jhttp://www.opticsexpress.org/abstract.cfm?URIinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Communication and equilibrium in discontinuous games of incomplete information

This paper offers a new approach to the study of economic problems usually modeled as games of incomplete information with discontinuous payoffs. Typically, the discontinuities arise from indeterminacies (ties) in the underlying problem. The point of view taken here is that the tie-breaking rules that resolve these indeterminacies should be viewed as part of the solution rather than part of the description of the model. A solution is therefore a tie-breaking rule together with strategies satisfying the usual best-response criterion. When information is incomplete, solutions need not exist; that is, there may be no tie-breaking rule that is compatible with the existence of strategy profiles satisfying the usual best-response criteria. It is shown that the introduction of incentive compatible communication (cheap talk) restores existence