Linking scales and disciplines : an interdisciplinary cross-scale approach to supporting climate-relevant ecosystem management

CITATION: Berger, C. et al. 2019. Linking scales and disciplines : an interdisciplinary cross-scale approach to supporting climate-relevant ecosystem management. Climatic Change, 156:139–150, doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02544-0.The original publication is available at https://www.springer.com/journal/10584Southern Africa is particularly sensitive to climate change, due to both ecological and socioeconomic factors, with rural land users among the most vulnerable groups. The provision of information to support climate-relevant decision-making requires an understanding of the projected impacts of change and complex feedbacks within the local ecosystems, as well as local demands on ecosystem services. In this paper, we address the limitation of current approaches for developing management relevant socio-ecological information on the projected impacts of climate change and human activities.We emphasise the need for linking disciplines and approaches by expounding the methodology followed in our two consecutive projects. These projects combine disciplines and levels of measurements from the leaf level (ecophysiology) to the local landscape level (flux measurements) and from the local household level (socio-economic surveys) to the regional level (remote sensing), feeding into a variety of models at multiple scales. Interdisciplinary, multi-scaled, and integrated socio-ecological approaches, as proposed here, are needed to compliment reductionist and linear, scalespecific approaches. Decision support systems are used to integrate and communicate the data and models to the local decision-makers.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02544-0Publisher's versio

Exploring survival strategies of African Savanna trees by partial ordering techniques

The resilience of savanna ecosystems to climate and land-use changes is an important ecological and management question. The term ‘resilience' is used to refer to the ability of a tree species to survive in a specific location, even under changing environmental conditions. In this study, vectors of functional traits of selected savanna tree species are studied by applying partial order algorithms to them. Some ecological interpretations are obtained and are compared to published research. One finding is the high rates of nitrogen fixation for the leaves of Acacia nigrescens. In opposition to this well-known fact, we discovered that Sclerocarya birrea has a bigger average leaf area than the other four tree species. Additionally, we found high carbonate values within the leaf from Colophospermum mopane, Combretum apiculatum, and Terminalis sericea. These results correspond to different ecological strategies for the tree species in question. It became obvious that geometric structures gained from partial ordering show a very good correspondence to ecological strategies of these tree species. Concepts of partial order theory may therefore be helpful in ecosystem research

Firewood Collection in South Africa: Adaptive Behavior in Social-Ecological Models

Due to the fact that the South Africa’s savanna landscapes are under changing conditions, the previously sustainable firewood collection system in rural areas has become a social-ecological factor in questions about landscape management. While the resilience of savannas in national parks such as Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa has been widely acknowledged in ecosystem management, the resilience of woody vegetation outside protected areas has been underappreciated. Collecting wood is the dominant source of energy for rural households, and there is an urgent need for land management to find sustainable solutions for this complex social-ecological system. However, the firewood collection scenario is only one example, and stands for all “human-ecosystem service” interactions under the topic of over-utilization, e.g., fishery, grazing, harvesting. Agent-based modeling combined with goal-oriented action planning (GOAP) can provide fresh insights into the relationship between individual needs of humans and changes in land use. At the same time, this modeling approach includes adaptive behavior under changing conditions. A firewood collection scenario was selected for a proof-of-concept comprising households, collectors, ecosystem services and firewood sites. Our results have shown that, even when it is predictable what a single human agent will do, massive up-scaling is needed in order to understand the whole complexity of social-ecological systems. Under changing conditions, such as climate and an increasing population, fair distribution of natural goods become an important issue

Modeling the future tree distribution in a South African Savanna ecosystem : an agent-based model approach

Understanding the dynamics of tree species and their demography is necessary for predicting future developments in savanna ecosystems. In this contribution, elephant-tree and firewood collector-tree interactions are compared using a multiagent model. To investigate these dynamics, we compared three different tree species in two plots. The first plot is located in the protected space of Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, and the second plot in the rural areas of the Bushbuckridge Municipality, South Africa. The agent-based modeling approach enabled the modeling of individual trees with characteristics such as species, age class, size, damage class, and life history. A similar level of detail was applied to agents that represent elephants and firewood collectors. Particular attention was paid to modeling purposeful behavior of humans in contrast to more instinct-driven actions of elephants. The authors were able to predict future developments by simulating the time period between 2010 and 2050 with more than 500,000 individual trees. Modeling individual trees for a time span of 40 years might yield more detailed information than a simple woody mass aggregation. The results indicate a significant trend toward more and thinner trees together with a notable reduction in mature trees, while the total aboveground biomass appears to stay more or less constant. Furthermore, the KNP scenarios show an increase in young Combretum apiculatum, which may correspond to bush encroachment.Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften HamburgPeerReviewe

Modeling the Future Tree Distribution in a South African Savanna Ecosystem: An Agent-Based Model Approach

Understanding the dynamics of tree species and their demography is necessary for predicting future developments in savanna ecosystems. In this contribution, elephant-tree and firewood collector-tree interactions are compared using a multiagent model. To investigate these dynamics, we compared three different tree species in two plots. The first plot is located in the protected space of Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, and the second plot in the rural areas of the Bushbuckridge Municipality, South Africa. The agent-based modeling approach enabled the modeling of individual trees with characteristics such as species, age class, size, damage class, and life history. A similar level of detail was applied to agents that represent elephants and firewood collectors. Particular attention was paid to modeling purposeful behavior of humans in contrast to more instinct-driven actions of elephants. The authors were able to predict future developments by simulating the time period between 2010 and 2050 with more than 500,000 individual trees. Modeling individual trees for a time span of 40 years might yield more detailed information than a simple woody mass aggregation. The results indicate a significant trend toward more and thinner trees together with a notable reduction in mature trees, while the total aboveground biomass appears to stay more or less constant. Furthermore, the KNP scenarios show an increase in young Combretum apiculatum, which may correspond to bush encroachment

A cross-scale modeling framework for decision support on elephant management in Kruger National Park, South Africa

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