Economic performance of uneven-aged forests analysed with annuities

For this study, 18 permanent research plots in Switzerland with an area between 0.5 and 2.5 ha that have been installed between 1905 and 1931 were analysed using annuities. The plots cover a wide range of uneven-aged forest-types from pure Norway spruce to classical single-tree selection (plenter) forests dominated by Silver fir in different elevations (575-1810 m a.s.l). The areas have been managed according to an uneven-aged silvicultural system and growth and yield characteristics have been assessed on a single-tree basis every 5-11 years. Net revenues of timber harvesting were computed as a time series from the installation of the plots until today and transformed into net present values and subsequently into annuities for each assessment interval. Three types of annuities: (1) for cutting cycles; (2) forward; (3) backward for the whole assessment period were calculated together with internal rates of return. The results display that annuities were usually positive with an interest of 2 per cent. High elevation (>1400 m) Norway spruce dominated forests as well as heavily overstocked (>900-1000 m3 ha−1) plots showed the lowest or even negative annuities. The reduction of overstocks lead in the mid-term to an increase, but resulted in a short-term decrease of the annuities. For many of the research plots, especially those in higher elevations, there is a trend towards an increase of the annuities over time. The highest annuities were found in Silver fir dominated selection forests with a growing stock close to or slightly above an equilibrium structure. The backward calculation of the annuities improved for some plots the problem of the strong influence of the value of the initial growing stock. Implications for uneven-aged silviculture as well as for the analysis of the economic performance of uneven-aged and even-aged forests and the application of annuities are discussed in the pape

Evaluation of Growth Simulators for Forest Management in Terms of Functionality and Software Structure Using AHP

A range of computer models exist for simulating forest growth, with different model functions, spatial resolutions and regional calibration specifications. Choosing a suitable simulator is difficult due to its abundance and complexity. The aim of the project is to evaluate a simulator that could be adapted to conditions in Switzerland and used to support decision‐making processes in both forest enterprises and scientific contexts. Fourteen potentially suitable forest growth simulators were identified through a literature review, which was then narrowed down to four: BWINPro, SILVA, MOSES and PrognAus. In the second phase, these were systematically evaluated in terms of functionality and software structure using AHP, in order to identify a suitable simulator. The AHP evaluation entailed: (1) determining the decision criteria and hierarchy, (2) performing pairwise comparisons and calculating the utility values and (3) conducting a sensitivity analysis. AHP was found to provide a transparent, verifiable evaluation process for simulator selection. This enabled a critical argumentation and assessment of the simulators. In the third phase, not covered by this article, the selected simulator will be parametrised for Swiss conditions and incorporated into an overarching decision‐support system for forest planning and management

An agent-based model of wood markets: Scenario analysis

We present an agent-based model of wood markets. The model covers softwood and hardwood markets for sawlogs, energy wood, and industrial wood. Our study region is a mountainous area in Switzerland that is close to the border, and therefore partially depends on the wood markets of the adjacent countries. The wood markets in this study region are characterized by many small-scale wood suppliers, and a mix of private and publicowned forests. The model was developed to investigate the availability of wood in the study region under different market conditions. We defined several scenarios that are relevant to policy makers and analyzed them with a focus on the two most important assortments of wood in the study region, namely, sawlogs softwood and energy wood softwood. The development of the prices and amounts sold in the scenarios are compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The scenarios were designed to investigate i) the influence of intermediaries, ii) the influence of the profit-orientation of forest owners, iii) the influence of the exchange rate, and iv) the consequences of set-asides in the study region. The presented model has a large potential to support the planning of policy measures as it allows capturing emergent phenomena, and thereby facilitates identifying potential consequences of policy measures planned prior to their implementation. This was demonstrated by discussing the scenario findings with respect to Switzerland's forestry policy objective of increasing the harvested amount of wood to the sustainable potential. We showed that a higher profit-orientation of forest owners would be beneficial for this objective, but also revealed potential conflicts of different economic goals

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK

Background A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. Methods This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. Findings Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0–75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4–97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8–80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3–4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. Interpretation ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.

BACKGROUND: A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. METHODS: This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0-75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4-97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8-80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3-4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca

Enhancing Agent-Based Models with Discrete Choice Experiments

Agent-based modeling is a promising method to investigate market dynamics, as it allows modeling the behavior of all market participants individually. Integrating empirical data in the agents’ decision model can improve the validity of agent-based models (ABMs). We present an approach of using discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to enhance the empirical foundation of ABMs. The DCE method is based on random utility theory and therefore has the potential to enhance the ABM approach with a well-established economic theory. Our combined approach is applied to a case study of a roundwood market in Switzerland. We conducted DCEs with roundwood suppliers to quantitatively characterize the agents’ decision model. We evaluate our approach using a fitness measure and compare two DCE evaluation methods, latent class analysis and hierarchical Bayes. Additionally, we analyze the influence of the error term of the utility function on the simulation results and present a way to estimate its probability distribution

Bessere Produktions- und Nutzungsentscheide mit dem Sortierungssimulator SorSim

To be able to estimate the commercial wood assortment of forests at all times is an important requirement of economical wood production. This makes it possible to improve management decisions by quantifying the revenues of alternative silvicultural and bucking strategies. So far a functional simulaton instrument for bucking single trees and whole stands was missing in forestry and in forest science in Switzerland. The SorSim bucking simulator of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) fills this gap. SorSim is implemented in Java and is platform-independent. An overview is given how the simulator works. Two examples show applications in practice and science. Of particular value is the possibility of estimating wood assortments of planned harvesting operations based on simple timber marking protocols. Especially in science and in strategic planning, SorSim allows the analysis of the long-term development of revenues of forest stands given different silvicultural methods. Combining SorSim with IT-based harvesting productivity models provides greater insight. Further development of SorSim entails testing different optimization approaches, e.g. single tree bucking to value and whole stand bucking to order