Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated

Outcome of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Disease in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients Receiving Aerosolized Ribavirin: Significance of Stem Cell Source and Oxygen Requirement

AbstractRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is an important complication after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), and RSV lower respiratory tract disease (LRD) results in substantial early mortality and late airflow obstruction among survivors. Factors associated with poor outcome are unknown. We evaluated the effect of transplant and treatment factors on overall survival, mortality from respiratory failure, and pulmonary function among 82 HCT recipients who had RSV LRD between 1990 and 2011. All patients received aerosolized ribavirin. In multivariable analyses, only the use of marrow or cord blood as graft source (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 9.0; P < .001) and oxygen requirement (aHR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.5 to 6.7; P = .003) remained independently associated with overall mortality and death due to respiratory failure (aHR, 4.7; 95% CI, 1.8 to 13; P = .002 and aHR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.8 to 16; P = .002, respectively). Antibody-based treatments, including intravenous immunoglobulin and palivizumab, were not independently associated with improved outcome and did not alter the associations of the graft source and oxygen requirements in statistical models. In conclusion, use of peripheral blood stem cells as graft source and lack of oxygen requirement at diagnosis appear to be important factors associated with improved survival of HCT recipients with RSV LRD. These results may explain differences in outcomes reported from RSV infection over time and may guide the design of future interventional trials

Stroke impact on mortality and psychologic morbidity within the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

BackgroundPoor socioeconomic and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) outcomes in survivors of childhood cancer can lead to distress and overall negatively impact the lives of these individuals. The current report has highlighted the impact of stroke and stroke recurrence on mortality, psychological HRQOL, and socioeconomic outcomes within the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS).MethodsThe CCSS is a retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up concerning survivors of pediatric cancer who were diagnosed between 1970 and 1986. Mortality rates per 100 person-years were calculated across 3 periods: 1) prior to stroke; 2) after first stroke and before recurrent stroke; and 3) after recurrent stroke. Socioeconomic outcomes, the standardized Brief Symptoms Inventory-18, the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, and the CCSS-Neurocognitive Questionnaire also were assessed.ResultsAmong 14,358 participants (median age, 39.7&nbsp;years), 224 had a stroke after their cancer diagnosis (single stroke in 161 patients and recurrent stroke in 63 patients). Based on 2636 deaths, all-cause late mortality rates were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.73) prior to stroke, 1.03 (95% CI, 0.73-1.46) after the first stroke, and 2.42 (95% CI, 1.48-3.94) after the recurrent stroke. Among 7304 survivors, those with stroke were more likely to live with a caregiver (single stroke odds ratio [OR], 2.3 [95% CI, 1.4-3.8]; and recurrent stroke OR, 5.3 [95% CI, 1.7-16.8]) compared with stroke-free survivors. Stroke negatively impacted task efficiency (single stroke OR, 2.4 [95% CI, 1.4-4.1] and recurrent stroke OR, 3.3 [95% CI, 1.1-10.3]) and memory (single stroke OR, 2.1 [95% CI, 1.2-3.7]; and recurrent stroke OR, 3.5 [95% CI, 1.1-10.5]).ConclusionsStroke and stroke recurrence are associated with increased mortality and negatively impact HRQOL measures in survivors of pediatric cancer

Diagnostic and Prognostic Plasma Biomarkers for Idiopathic Pneumonia Syndrome after Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation

Idiopathic pneumonia syndrome (IPS) is a noninfectious pulmonary complication after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) and is difficult to diagnose. In 41 patients with IPS, we evaluated 6 candidate proteins in plasma samples at day 7 post-HCT and at onset of IPS to identify potential diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers for IPS. Samples at similar times from 162 HCT recipients without documented infections and 37 HCT recipients with respiratory viral pneumonia served as controls. In multivariable models, a combination of Stimulation-2 (ST2; odds ratio [OR], 2.8; P < .001) and IL-6 (OR, 1.4; P = .025) was the best panel for distinguishing IPS at diagnosis from unaffected controls, whereas tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1; OR, 2.9; P = .002) was the best marker when comparing patients with IPS and viral pneumonia. The areas under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for discriminating between IPS and unaffected controls at day 7 post-HCT were .8 for ST2, .75 for IL-6, and .68 for TNFR1. Using estimated sensitivity and specificity values from cutoffs determined with the ROC analysis (cutoff level: ST2, 21 ng/mL; IL-6, 61 pg/mL; TNFR1, 3421 pg/mL), we calculated positive predictive values (PPV) for a range of estimated population prevalence values of IPS. Among the 3 markers, ST2 showed the highest PPV for IPS occurrence. Based on an assumed prevalence of 8%, a positive ST2 test increased likelihood of IPS to 50%. We conclude that a prospective validation study is warranted to determine whether a plasma biomarker panel can aid the noninvasive diagnosis and prognosis of IPS

Associations between endogenous sex hormone levels and mammographic and bone densities in premenopausal women

PURPOSE: Mammographic breast and bone mineral densities (BMD) have been associated with luteal phase hormone concentrations in premenopausal women. We assessed the associations of breast and bone densities with follicular phase hormones and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) in premenopausal women given that follicular phase hormones have been shown to be positively associated with premenopausal breast cancer risk. METHODS: One hundred and ninety two 40-45 year old women provided a spot urine and/or blood sample during the follicular phase. Hormone and SHBG concentrations and bone density were measured and routine mammograms were accessed and digitized to obtain breast density measures. Regression models were fit to assess the associations between hormones and SHBG and breast and bone densities. RESULTS: Positive associations were observed between percent breast density and SHBG (p trend = 0.02), as well as estradiol (p trend = 0.08), after controlling for body mass index (BMI), number of pregnancies, and breast feeding history. In addition, a statistically significant inverse association was observed between total testosterone and head BMD (p trend = 0.01), after controlling for BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Associations were observed between breast and bone densities and serum hormone concentrations during the follicular phase of the menstrual cycle

Cardiac outcomes in a cohort of adult survivors of childhood and adolescent cancer: retrospective analysis of the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study cohort

Objectives To assess the incidence of and risks for congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, pericardial disease, and valvular abnormalities among adult survivors of childhood and adolescent cancers

Neurologic Morbidity and Functional Independence in Adult Survivors of Childhood Cancer

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between neurologic late effects and attainment of independence in adult survivors of childhood cancer treated with central nervous system (CNS)-directed therapies. METHODS: A total of 7881 survivors treated with cranial radiation therapy (n = 4051; CRT) and/or intrathecal methotrexate (n = 4193; IT MTX) ([CNS-treated]; median age [range] = 25.5 years [18-48]; time since diagnosis = 17.7 years [6.8-30.2]) and 8039 without CNS-directed therapy reported neurologic conditions including stroke, seizure, neurosensory deficits, focal neurologic dysfunction, and migraines/severe headaches. Functional independence was assessed using latent class analysis with multiple indicators (independent living, assistance with routine and personal care needs, ability to work/attend school, attainment of driver\u27s license, marital/partner status). Multivariable regression models, adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and chronic health conditions, estimated odds ratios (OR) or relative risks (RR) for associations between neurologic morbidity, functional independence, and emotional distress. RESULTS: Among CNS-treated survivors, three classes of independence were identified: (1) moderately independent, never married, and non-independent living (78.7%); (2) moderately independent, unable to drive (15.6%); and (3) non-independent (5.7%). In contrast to 50% of non-CNS-treated survivors and 60% of siblings, a fourth fully independent class of CNS-treated survivors was not identified. History of stroke (OR = 2.50, 95% CI: 1.70-3.68), seizure (OR = 9.70, 95% CI: 7.37-12.8), neurosensory deficits (OR = 2.67, 95% CI: 2.16-3.31), and focal neurologic dysfunction (OR = 3.05, 95% CI: 2.40-3.88) were associated with non-independence among CNS-treated survivors. Non-independence was associated with emotional distress symptoms. INTERPRETATION: CNS-treated survivors do not attain full independence comparable to non-CNS-treated survivors or siblings. Interventions to promote independence may be beneficial for survivors with treatment-related neurological sequalae

Risk factors for overweight and obesity after childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in North America and Switzerland: A comparison of two cohort studies.

BACKGROUND After childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), sequelae include overweight and obesity, yet with conflicting evidence. We compared the prevalence of overweight and obesity between ≥5-year ALL survivors from the North American Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) and the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS) and described risk factors. METHODS We included adult childhood ALL survivors diagnosed between 1976 and 1999. We matched CCSS participants (3:1) to SCCSS participants by sex and attained age. We calculated body mass index (BMI) from self-reported height and weight for 1287 CCSS and 429 SCCSS participants; we then compared those with siblings (2034) in North America and Switzerland (678) siblings. We assessed risk factors for overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2 ) and obesity (≥30 kg/m2 ) using multinomial regression. RESULTS We found overweight and obesity significantly more common among survivors in North America when compared with survivors in Switzerland [overweight: 30%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 27-32 vs. 24%, 21-29; obesity: 29%, 27-32 vs. 7%, 5-10] and siblings (overweight: 30%, 27-32 vs. 25%, 22-29; obesity: 24%, 22-26 vs. 6%, 4-8). Survivors in North America [odds ratio (OR) = 1.24, 1.01-1.53] and Switzerland (1.27, 0.74-2.21) were slightly more often obese than siblings. Among survivors, risk factors for obesity included residency in North America (5.8, 3.7-9.0); male (1.7, 1.3-2.3); attained age (≥45 years: 5.1, 2.4-10.8); Non-Hispanic Black (3.4, 1.6-7.0); low household income (2.3, 1.4-3.5); young age at diagnosis (1.6, 1.1-2.2). Cranial radiotherapy ≥18 Gray was only a risk factor for overweight (1.4, 1.0-1.8); steroids were not associated with overweight or obesity. Interaction tests found no evidence of difference in risk factors between cohorts. CONCLUSIONS Although treatment-related risk for overweight and obesity were similar between regions, higher prevalence among survivors in North America identifies important sociodemographic drivers for informing health policy and targeted intervention trials

Cardiac Substructure Radiation Dose and Risk of Late Cardiac Disease in Survivors of Childhood Cancer: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PURPOSE: Radiation-associated cardiac disease is a major cause of morbidity/mortality among childhood cancer survivors. Radiation dose-response relationships for cardiac substructures and cardiac diseases remain unestablished. METHODS: Using the 25,481 5-year survivors of childhood cancer treated from 1970 to 1999 in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we evaluated coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), valvular disease (VD), and arrhythmia. We reconstructed radiation doses for each survivor to the coronary arteries, chambers, valves, and whole heart. Excess relative rate (ERR) models and piecewise exponential models evaluated dose-response relationships. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence 35 years from diagnosis was 3.9% (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.3) for CAD, 3.8% (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.2) for HF, 1.2% (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.5) for VD, and 1.4% (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.6) for arrhythmia. A total of 12,288 survivors (48.2%) were exposed to radiotherapy. Quadratic ERR models improved fit compared with linear ERR models for the dose-response relationship between mean whole heart and CAD, HF, and arrhythmia, suggesting a potential threshold dose; however, such departure from linearity was not observed for most cardiac substructure end point dose-response relationships. Mean doses of 5-9.9 Gy to the whole heart did not increase the risk of any cardiac diseases. Mean doses of 5-9.9 Gy to the right coronary artery (rate ratio [RR], 2.6 [95% CI, 1.6 to 4.1]) and left ventricle (RR, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.3 to 3.7]) increased risk of CAD, and to the tricuspid valve (RR, 5.5 [95% CI, 2.0 to 15.1]) and right ventricle (RR, 8.4 [95% CI, 3.7 to 19.0]) increased risk of VD. CONCLUSION: Among children with cancer, there may be no threshold dose below which radiation to the cardiac substructures does not increase the risk of cardiac diseases. This emphasizes their importance in modern treatment planning

Cardiovascular Risk Factor Disparities in Adult Survivors of Childhood Cancer Compared With the General Population

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether a history of childhood cancer modifies the established disparities in cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) observed in the general population. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine if disparities in CVRFs by race/ethnicity are similar among childhood cancer survivors compared with the general population. METHODS: The Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) is a retrospective cohort with a longitudinal follow-up of 24,084 5-year survivors diagnosed between 1970 and 1999. Multivariable piecewise exponential regression estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, obesity, and ≥2 CVRFs by race/ethnicity. The CCSS sibling cohort and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cohort were used to compare the sociodemographic-adjusted IRRs for same-race/same-ethnicity disparities. RESULTS: Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) (n = 1,092) and Hispanic (n = 1,405) survivors compared with non-Hispanic White (NHW) (n = 13,960) survivors reported a higher cumulative incidence of diabetes (8.4%, 9.7%, and 5.1%, respectively); obesity (47.2%, 48.9%, and 30.2%, respectively); multiple CVRFs (17.7%, 16.6%, and 12.3%, respectively); and, for NHB survivors, hypertension (19.5%, 13.6%, and 14.3%, respectively) by 40 years of age ( CONCLUSIONS: The higher burden of CVRFs among NHB and Hispanic survivors compared with NHW survivors was similar to the general population. The promotion of cardiovascular health equity is critical in this high-risk population