Prediction of intensive care admission and hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients using demographics and baseline laboratory data

Introduction: Optimized allocation of medical resources to patients with COVID-19 has been a critical concern since the onset of the pandemic. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, the authors used data from a Brazilian tertiary university hospital to explore predictors of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and hospital mortality in patients admitted for COVID-19. Our primary aim was to create and validate prediction scores for use in hospitals and emergency departments to aid clinical decisions and resource allocation. Results: The study cohort included 3,022 participants, of whom 2,485 were admitted to the ICU; 1968 survived, and 1054 died in the hospital. From the complete cohort, 1,496 patients were randomly assigned to the derivation sample and 1,526 to the validation sample. The final scores included age, comorbidities, and baseline laboratory data. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were very similar for the derivation and validation samples. Scores for ICU admission had a 75% accuracy in the validation sample, whereas scores for death had a 77% accuracy in the validation sample. The authors found that including baseline flu-like symptoms in the scores added no significant benefit to their accuracy. Furthermore, our scores were more accurate than the previously published NEWS-2 and 4C Mortality Scores. Discussion and conclusions: The authors developed and validated prognostic scores that use readily available clinical and laboratory information to predict ICU admission and mortality in COVID-19. These scores can become valuable tools to support clinical decisions and improve the allocation of limited health resources

Improving the delivery and efficiency of fungus-impregnated cloths for control of adult Aedes aegypti using a synthetic attractive lure

Abstract Background Entomopathogenic fungi are highly promising agents for controlling Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Deploying fungus-impregnated black cloths in PET traps efficiently reduced Ae. aegypti female survival rates under intra-domicile conditions. With the aim of further increasing the effectiveness of the traps, the addition of attractive lures to fungus-impregnated traps was evaluated. Methods Black cloths were suspended inside 2 l plastic bottles called “PET traps”. These traps were placed in rooms simulating human residences. The first experiments evaluated the attraction of mosquitoes to PET traps with black cloths covered in adhesive film with and without synthetic lures (AtrAedes™). Traps were left in the test rooms for either 24 or 48 h. The attractiveness of the lures over time was also evaluated. The efficiency of PET traps with fungus-impregnated black cloths associated with lures was compared to that of traps without lures. Results The highest percentage of captured mosquitoes (31 and 66%) were observed in PET traps with black cloths covered in adhesive film + attractive lure maintained in test rooms for 24 h and 48 h, respectively. Black cloths covered in adhesive film captured 17 or 36% of the mosquitoes at 24 h and 48 h, respectively. The attractiveness of the lures fell gradually over time, capturing 37% after 5 days on the bench and 22% of the mosquitoes after 30 days exposure to ambient conditions. Associating attractive synthetic lures with black cloths impregnated with M. anisopliae placed in test rooms for 120 h reduced mean survival to 32%, whilst black cloths impregnated with M. anisopliae without lures resulted in a 48% survival rate. Using Beauveria bassiana in the traps resulted in a 52% reduction in mosquito survival, whilst combining Beauveria and AtrAedes resulted in a 36% survival rate. PET traps impregnated with fungus + AtrAedes resulted in similar reductions in survival when left in the rooms for 24, 48, 72 or 120 h. Conclusions AtrAedes increased attractiveness of PET traps with black cloths under intra-domicile conditions and when associated with M. anisopliae or B. bassiana, significantly reduced Aedes survival. This strategy will reduce the number of PET traps necessary per household

Correlations of mutations in katG, oxyR-ahpC and inhA genes and in vitro susceptibility in Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical strains segregated by spoligotype families from tuberculosis prevalent countries in South America

Background Mutations associated with resistance to rifampin or streptomycin have been reported for W/Beijing and Latin American Mediterranean (LAM) strain families of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A few studies with limited sample sizes have separately evaluated mutations in katG, ahpC and inhA genes that are associated with isoniazid (INH) resistance. Increasing prevalence of INH resistance, especially in high tuberculosis (TB) prevalent countries is worsening the burden of TB control programs, since similar transmission rates are noted for INH susceptible and resistant M. tuberculosis strains. Results We, therefore, conducted a comprehensive evaluation of INH resistant M. tuberculosis strains (n = 224) from three South American countries with high burden of drug resistant TB to characterize mutations in katG, ahpC and inhA gene loci and correlate with minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC) levels and spoligotype strain family. Mutations in katG were observed in 181 (80.8%) of the isolates of which 178 (98.3%) was contributed by the katG S315T mutation. Additional mutations seen included oxyR-ahpC; inhA regulatory region and inhA structural gene. The S315T katG mutation was significantly more likely to be associated with MIC for INH ≥2 μg/mL. The S315T katG mutation was also more frequent in Haarlem family strains than LAM (n = 81) and T strain families. Conclusion Our data suggests that genetic screening for the S315T katG mutation may provide rapid information for anti-TB regimen selection, epidemiological monitoring of INH resistance and, possibly, to track transmission of INH resistant strains.Fil: Dalla Costa, Elis R. State Foundation for Production and Research in Health (FEPPS); Brasil.Fil: Ribeiro, Marta O. State Foundation for Production and Research in Health (FEPPS); Brasil.Fil: Silva, Márcia S. N. State Foundation for Production and Research in Health (FEPPS); Brasil.Fil: Arnold, Liane S. State Foundation for Production and Research in Health (FEPPS); Brasil.Fil: Rostirolla, Diana C. State Foundation for Production and Research in Health (FEPPS); Brasil.Fil: Cafrune, Patricia I. State Foundation for Production and Research in Health (FEPPS); Brasil.Fil: Espinoza, Roger C. Blufstein Clinic Laboratory; Perú.Fil: Palaci, Moises. Federal University of Espírito Santo; Brasil.Fil: Telles, Maria A. Adolfo Lutz Institute; Brasil.Fil: Ritacco, Viviana. ANLIS Dr.C.G.Malbrán. Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Infecciosas. Servicio de Micobacterias; Argentina.Fil: Suffys, Philip N. Oswaldo Cruz Institute; Brasil.Fil: Lopes, Maria L. Evandro Chagas Institute; Brasil.Fil: Campelo, Creuza L. LACEN Ceará; BrasilFil: Miranda, Silvana S. Federal University of Minas Gerais; Brasil.Fil: Kremer, Kristin. National Institute for Public Healthand the Environment (RIVM). Mycobacteria Reference Unit (CIb-LIS); Países Bajos.Fil: Almeida da Silva, Pedro E. Federal Foundation of Rio Grande; Brasil.Fil: de Souza Fonseca, Leila. Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Tuberculosis Academic Program; Brasil.Fil: Ho, John L. Cornell University; Estados Unidos.Fil: Kritski, Afrânio L. Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Tuberculosis Academic Program; Brasil.Fil: Rossetti, María L. R. State Foundation for Production and Research in Health (FEPPS); Brasil

Using rare genetic mutations to revisit structural brain asymmetry

Asymmetry between the left and right hemisphere is a key feature of brain organization. Hemispheric functional specialization underlies some of the most advanced human-defining cognitive operations, such as articulated language, perspective taking, or rapid detection of facial cues. Yet, genetic investigations into brain asymmetry have mostly relied on common variants, which typically exert small effects on brain-related phenotypes. Here, we leverage rare genomic deletions and duplications to study how genetic alterations reverberate in human brain and behavior. We designed a pattern-learning approach to dissect the impact of eight high-effect-size copy number variations (CNVs) on brain asymmetry in a multi-site cohort of 552 CNV carriers and 290 non-carriers. Isolated multivariate brain asymmetry patterns spotlighted regions typically thought to subserve lateralized functions, including language, hearing, as well as visual, face and word recognition. Planum temporale asymmetry emerged as especially susceptible to deletions and duplications of specific gene sets. Targeted analysis of common variants through genome-wide association study (GWAS) consolidated partly diverging genetic influences on the right versus left planum temporale structure. In conclusion, our gene-brain-behavior data fusion highlights the consequences of genetically controlled brain lateralization on uniquely human cognitive capacities

Measuring the availability of human resources for health and its relationship to universal health coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Human resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 strategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance. Methods: Through the International Labour Organization and Global Health Data Exchange databases, we identified 1404 country-years of data from labour force surveys and 69 country-years of census data, with detailed microdata on health-related employment. From the WHO National Health Workforce Accounts, we identified 2950 country-years of data. We mapped data from all occupational coding systems to the International Standard Classification of Occupations 1988 (ISCO-88), allowing for standardised estimation of densities for 16 categories of health workers across the full time series. Using data from 1990 to 2019 for 196 of 204 countries and territories, covering seven Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) super-regions and 21 regions, we applied spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) to model HRH densities from 1990 to 2019 for all countries and territories. We used stochastic frontier meta-regression to model the relationship between the UHC effective coverage index and densities for the four categories of health workers enumerated in SDG indicator 3.c.1 pertaining to HRH: physicians, nurses and midwives, dentistry personnel, and pharmaceutical personnel. We identified minimum workforce density thresholds required to meet a specified target of 80 out of 100 on the UHC effective coverage index, and quantified national shortages with respect to those minimum thresholds. Findings: We estimated that, in 2019, the world had 104·0 million (95% uncertainty interval 83·5–128·0) health workers, including 12·8 million (9·7–16·6) physicians, 29·8 million (23·3–37·7) nurses and midwives, 4·6 million (3·6–6·0) dentistry personnel, and 5·2 million (4·0–6·7) pharmaceutical personnel. We calculated a global physician density of 16·7 (12·6–21·6) per 10 000 population, and a nurse and midwife density of 38·6 (30·1–48·8) per 10 000 population. We found the GBD super-regions of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East had the lowest HRH densities. To reach 80 out of 100 on the UHC effective coverage index, we estimated that, per 10 000 population, at least 20·7 physicians, 70·6 nurses and midwives, 8·2 dentistry personnel, and 9·4 pharmaceutical personnel would be needed. In total, the 2019 national health workforces fell short of these minimum thresholds by 6·4 million physicians, 30·6 million nurses and midwives, 3·3 million dentistry personnel, and 2·9 million pharmaceutical personnel. Interpretation: Considerable expansion of the world's health workforce is needed to achieve high levels of UHC effective coverage. The largest shortages are in low-income settings, highlighting the need for increased financing and coordination to train, employ, and retain human resources in the health sector. Actual HRH shortages might be larger than estimated because minimum thresholds for each cadre of health workers are benchmarked on health systems that most efficiently translate human resources into UHC attainment