Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors

In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a ’data-poor environment’ at the sub-national level by complementing various regional indicators with more than 200 national and international indicators. We calculate single– indicator, multi–indicator, pooled and factor forecasts in a pseudo real–time setting. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short and long term predictions. Furthermore, regional indicators play a crucial role for forecasting regional GDP

CAVIAR: Climate variability of the Baltic Sea area and the response of the general circulation of the Baltic Sea to climate variability

The warming trend for the entire globe (1850-2005) is 0.04°C per decade. A specific warming period started around 1980 and continues at least until 2005, with a temperature increase of about 0.17°C per decade. This trend is equally well evident for many areas on the globe, especially on the northern hemisphere in observations and climate simulations. For the Baltic Sea catchment, which lies between maritime temperate and continental sub-Arctic climate zones, an even stronger warming of about 0.4°C per decade appeared since 1980. The annual mean air temperature increased by about 1°C until 2004. A similar warming trend could be observed for the sea surface temperature of the Baltic Sea. Even the annual mean water temperatures averaged spatially and vertically for the deep basins of the Baltic Sea show similar trends. We provide a detailed analysis of the climate variability and associated changes in the Baltic Sea catchment area as well as in the Baltic Sea itself for the period 1958-2009, in which the recent acceleration of the climate warming happened. Changes in the atmospheric conditions causes corresponding changes in the Baltic Sea, not only for temperature and salinity but also for currents and circulation. These changes in the physical conditions have strong impact on the marine ecosystem structure and processes

The response of the general circulation of the Baltic Sea to climate variability

The warming trend for the entire globe is 0.04°C per decade for the period 1850-2005. Furthermore, from around 1980 to present, a specifi c warming period started, with a temperature increase of about 0.17°C per decade, especially on the northern hemisphere. For the Baltic Sea catchment, which is located between maritime temperate and continental sub-Arctic climate zones, an even stronger warming of about 0.4°C per decade was observed since 1980. Changes in the atmospheric conditions cause corresponding changes in the Baltic Sea, not only for temperature and salinity, but also for currents and circulation patterns. The analysis of the winter (DJFM) circulation patterns for the period 1970-2008 reveals changes in the general circulation of the Baltic Sea. While it is diffi cult to clearly link individual winter circulation patterns to one of the four dominant atmospheric climate regimes for the North Atlantic domain, the comparison of mean winter circulation patterns for 20- year periods (1970-1988 and 1989-2008) highlights that for the later 20-year period an intensifi ed cyclonic circulation exists in the central Baltic Sea. This intensifi ed circulation results from stronger westerly and north-westerly winds and is most likely connected to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Типоморфизм хлоритов Сухаринского рудного поля

Изучены хлориты из руд и метасоматитов скарново-магнетитового, с наложенной золото-сульфидной минерализацией, Сухаринского рудного поля (Горная Шория). Выделены две разновидности хлоритов: метасоматические и прожилковые, приведены данные об их типоморфных особенностях; установлена зависимость железистости метасоматического хлорита от состава замещаемых минералов; установлено возрастание железистости всех типов хлоритов по мере удаления от Тельбесского гранитоидного массива, что указывает на парагенетическую связь гидротермальной минерализации с гранитоидным магматизмом