Putting 'M' back in Monetary Policy

Money demand and the stock of money have all but disappeared from monetary policy analyses. This paper is an empirical contribution to the debate over the role of money in monetary policy analysis. The paper models supply and demand interactions in the money market and finds evidence of an essential role for money in the transmission of policy. Across sub-samples, it finds evidence consistent with the following inferences: (1) the money stock and the interest rate jointly transmit monetary policy; (2) for a given exogenous change in the nominal interest rate, the estimated impact of policy on economic activity increases monotonically with the response of the money supply; (3) the path of the real rate is not sufficient for determining policy impacts.

The Association between Drought Exposure and Respiratory-Related Mortality in the United States from 2000 to 2018

Climate change has brought increasing attention to the assessment of health risks associated with climate and extreme events. Drought is a complex climate phenomenon that has been increasing in frequency and severity both locally and globally due to climate change. However, the health risks of drought are often overlooked, especially in places such as the United States, as the pathways to health impacts are complex and indirect. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the effects of monthly drought exposure on respiratory mortality for NOAA climate regions in the United States from 2000 to 2018. A two-stage model was applied to estimate the location-specific and overall effects of respiratory risk associated with two different drought indices over two timescales (the US Drought Monitor and the 6-month and 12-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index). During moderate and severe drought exposure, respiratory mortality risk ratio in the general population increased up to 6.0% (95% Cr: 4.8 to 7.2) in the Northeast, 9.0% (95% Cr: 4.9 to 13.3) in the Northern Rockies and Plains, 5.2% (95% Cr: 3.9 to 6.5) in the Ohio Valley, 3.5% (95% Cr: 1.9 to 5.0) in the Southeast, and 15.9% (95% Cr: 10.8 to 20.4) in the Upper Midwest. Our results showed that age, ethnicity, sex (both male and female), and urbanicity (both metro and non-metro) resulted in more affected population subgroups in certain climate regions. The magnitude and direction of respiratory risk ratio differed across NOAA climate regions. These results demonstrate a need for policymakers and communities to develop more effective strategies to mitigate the effects of drought across regions

Degeneracy of consistency equations in braneworld inflation

In a Randall-Sundrum type II inflationary scenario we compute perturbation amplitudes and spectral indices up to next-to-lowest order in the slow-roll parameters, starting from the well-known lowest-order result for a de Sitter brane. Using two different prescriptions for the tensor amplitude, we show that the braneworld consistency equations are not degenerate with respect to the standard relations and we explore their observational consequences. It is then shown that, while the degeneracy between high- and low-energy regimes can come from suitable values of the cosmological observables, exact functional matching between consistency expressions is plausibly discarded. This result is then extended to the Gauss-Bonnet case.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures. v3: major revision. Changed title, updated references, rearranged material, new prescription for the tensor spectrum, new figures, extended and more robust conclusion

Holography and Brane-bulk Energy Exchange

The five-dimensional description of generalized Randall-Sundrum cosmology is mapped via holography to a generalization of the Starobinsky model. This provides a holographic dual description of the cosmological brane-bulk energy exchange processes studied previously. Some simple solutions are presented in four dimensions.Comment: 41 pages, LaTe

Brane-bulk energy exchange : a model with the present universe as a global attractor

The role of brane-bulk energy exchange and of an induced gravity term on a single braneworld of negative tension and vanishing effective cosmological constant is studied. It is shown that for the physically interesting cases of dust and radiation a unique global attractor which can realize our present universe (accelerating and 0<Omega_{m0}<1) exists for a wide range of the parameters of the model. For Omega_{m0}=0.3, independently of the other parameters, the model predicts that the equation of state for the dark energy today is w_{DE,0}=-1.4, while Omega_{m0}=0.03 leads to w_{DE,0}=-1.03. In addition, during its evolution, w_{DE} crosses the w_{DE}=-1 line to smaller values.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, RevTex; references added, to appear in JHE

Thermodynamic analysis of 5′ and 3′ single- and 3′ double-nucleotide overhangs neighboring wobble terminal base pairs

Thermodynamic parameters are reported for duplex formation of 40 self-complementary RNA duplexes containing wobble terminal base pairs with all possible 3′ single and double-nucleotide overhangs, mimicking the structures of short interfering RNAs (siRNA) and microRNAs (miRNA). Based on nearest neighbor analysis, the addition of a single 3′ dangling nucleotide increases the stability of duplex formation up to 1 kcal/mol in a sequence-dependent manner. The addition of a second dangling nucleotide increases the stability of duplexes closed with wobble base pairs in an idiosyncratic manner. The results allow for the development of a nearest neighbor model, which improves the predication of free energy and melting temperature for duplexes closed by wobble base pairs with 3′ single or double-nucleotide overhangs. Phylogenetic analysis of naturally occurring miRNAs was performed. Selection of the effector miR strand of the mature miRNA duplex appears to be dependent on the orientation of the GU closing base pair rather than the identity of the 3′ double-nucleotide overhang. Thermodynamic parameters for the 5′ single terminal overhangs adjacent to wobble closing base pairs are also presented

The quantification and correction of wind-induced precipitation measurement errors

Hydrologic measurements are important for both the short- and long-term management of water resources. Of the terms in the hydrologic budget, precipitation is typically the most important input; however, measurements of precipitation are subject to large errors and biases. For example, an all-weather unshielded weighing precipitation gauge can collect less than 50 % of the actual amount of solid precipitation when wind speeds exceed 5 m s−1. Using results from two different precipitation test beds, such errors have been assessed for unshielded weighing gauges and for weighing gauges employing four of the most common windshields currently in use. Functions to correct wind-induced undercatch were developed and tested. In addition, corrections for the single-Alter weighing gauge were developed using the combined results of two separate sites in Norway and the USA. In general, the results indicate that the functions effectively correct the undercatch bias that affects such precipitation measurements. In addition, a single function developed for the single-Alter gauges effectively decreased the bias at both sites, with the bias at the US site improving from −12 to 0 %, and the bias at the Norwegian site improving from −27 to −4 %. These correction functions require only wind speed and air temperature as inputs, and were developed for use in national and local precipitation networks, hydrological monitoring, roadway and airport safety work, and climate change research. The techniques used to develop and test these transfer functions at more than one site can also be used for other more comprehensive studies, such as the World Meteorological Organization Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (WMO-SPICE)