Trajectories of clinical characteristics, complications and treatment choices in data-driven subgroups of type 2 diabetes

Aims/hypothesis: This study aimed to explore the added value of subgroups that categorise individuals with type 2 diabetes by k-means clustering for two primary care registries (the Netherlands and Scotland), inspired by Ahlqvist’s novel diabetes subgroups and previously analysed by Slieker et al. Methods: We used two Dutch and Scottish diabetes cohorts (N=3054 and 6145; median follow-up=11.2 and 12.3 years, respectively) and defined five subgroups by k-means clustering with age at baseline, BMI, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. We investigated differences between subgroups by trajectories of risk factor values (random intercept models), time to diabetes-related complications (logrank tests and Cox models) and medication patterns (multinomial logistic models). We also compared directly using the clustering indicators as predictors of progression vs the k-means discrete subgroups. Cluster consistency over follow-up was assessed. Results: Subgroups’ risk factors were significantly different, and these differences remained generally consistent over follow-up. Among all subgroups, individuals with severe insulin resistance faced a significantly higher risk of myocardial infarction both before (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.40, 1.94) and after adjusting for age effect (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.46, 2.02) compared with mild diabetes with high HDL-cholesterol. Individuals with severe insulin-deficient diabetes were most intensively treated, with more than 25% prescribed insulin at 10 years of diagnosis. For severe insulin-deficient diabetes relative to mild diabetes, the relative risks for using insulin relative to no common treatment would be expected to increase by a factor of 3.07 (95% CI 2.73, 3.44), holding other factors constant. Clustering indicators were better predictors of progression variation relative to subgroups, but prediction accuracy may improve after combining both. Clusters were consistent over 8 years with an accuracy ranging from 59% to 72%. Conclusions/interpretation: Data-driven subgroup allocations were generally consistent over follow-up and captured significant differences in risk factor trajectories, medication patterns and complication risks. Subgroups serve better as a complement rather than as a basis for compressing clustering indicators. Graphical Abstract

Apolipoprotein-CIII O-Glycosylation, a Link between GALNT2 and Plasma Lipids

Apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII) is involved in triglyceride-rich lipoprotein metabolism and linked to beta-cell damage, insulin resistance, and cardiovascular disease. Apo-CIII exists in four main proteoforms: non-glycosylated (apo-CIII0a), and glycosylated apo-CIII with zero, one, or two sialic acids (apo-CIII0c, apo-CIII1 and apo-CIII2). Our objective is to determine how apo-CIII glycosylation affects lipid traits and type 2 diabetes prevalence, and to investigate the genetic basis of these relations with a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on apo-CIII glycosylation. We conducted GWAS on the four apo-CIII proteoforms in the DiaGene study in people with and without type 2 diabetes (n = 2318). We investigated the relations of the identified genetic loci and apo-CIII glycosylation with lipids and type 2 diabetes. The associations of the genetic variants with lipids were replicated in the Diabetes Care System (n = 5409). Rs4846913-A, in the GALNT2-gene, was associated with decreased apo-CIII0a. This variant was associated with increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and decreased triglycerides, while high apo-CIII0a was associated with raised high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and triglycerides. Rs67086575-G, located in the IFT172-gene, was associated with decreased apo-CIII2 and with hypertriglyceridemia. In line, apo-CIII2 was associated with low triglycerides. On a genome-wide scale, we confirmed that the GALNT2-gene plays a major role i O-glycosylation of apolipoprotein-CIII, with subsequent associations with lipid parameters. We newly identified the IFT172/NRBP1 region, in the literature previously associated with hypertriglyceridemia, as involved in apolipoprotein-CIII sialylation and hypertriglyceridemia. These results link genomics, glycosylation, and lipid metabolism, and represent a key step towards unravelling the importance of O-glycosylation in health and disease.</p

Apolipoprotein-CIII O-Glycosylation Is Associated with Micro- and Macrovascular Complications of Type 2 Diabetes

Apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII) inhibits the clearance of triglycerides from circulation and is associated with an increased risk of diabetes complications. It exists in four main proteoforms: O-glycosylated variants containing either zero, one, or two sialic acids and a non-glycosylated variant. O-glycosylation may affect the metabolic functions of apo-CIII. We investigated the associations of apo-CIII glycosylation in blood plasma, measured by mass spectrometry of the intact protein, and genetic variants with micro- and macrovascular complications (retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy, cardiovascular disease) of type 2 diabetes in a DiaGene study (n = 1571) and the Hoorn DCS cohort (n = 5409). Mono-sialylated apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII1) was associated with a reduced risk of retinopathy (β = −7.215, 95% CI −11.137 to −3.294) whereas disialylated apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII2) was associated with an increased risk (β = 5.309, 95% CI 2.279 to 8.339). A variant of the GALNT2-gene (rs4846913), previously linked to lower apo-CIII0a, was associated with a decreased prevalence of retinopathy (OR = 0.739, 95% CI 0.575 to 0.951). Higher apo-CIII1 levels were associated with neuropathy (β = 7.706, 95% CI 2.317 to 13.095) and lower apo-CIII0a with macrovascular complications (β = −9.195, 95% CI −15.847 to −2.543). In conclusion, apo-CIII glycosylation was associated with the prevalence of micro- and macrovascular complications of diabetes. Moreover, a variant in the GALNT2-gene was associated with apo-CIII glycosylation and retinopathy, suggesting a causal effect. The findings facilitate a molecular understanding of the pathophysiology of diabetes complications and warrant consideration of apo-CIII glycosylation as a potential target in the prevention of diabetes complications.</p

Apolipoprotein-CIII O-Glycosylation Is Associated with Micro- and Macrovascular Complications of Type 2 Diabetes

Apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII) inhibits the clearance of triglycerides from circulation and is associated with an increased risk of diabetes complications. It exists in four main proteoforms: O-glycosylated variants containing either zero, one, or two sialic acids and a non-glycosylated variant. O-glycosylation may affect the metabolic functions of apo-CIII. We investigated the associations of apo-CIII glycosylation in blood plasma, measured by mass spectrometry of the intact protein, and genetic variants with micro- and macrovascular complications (retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy, cardiovascular disease) of type 2 diabetes in a DiaGene study (n = 1571) and the Hoorn DCS cohort (n = 5409). Mono-sialylated apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII1) was associated with a reduced risk of retinopathy (β = −7.215, 95% CI −11.137 to −3.294) whereas disialylated apolipoprotein-CIII (apo-CIII2) was associated with an increased risk (β = 5.309, 95% CI 2.279 to 8.339). A variant of the GALNT2-gene (rs4846913), previously linked to lower apo-CIII0a, was associated with a decreased prevalence of retinopathy (OR = 0.739, 95% CI 0.575 to 0.951). Higher apo-CIII1 levels were associated with neuropathy (β = 7.706, 95% CI 2.317 to 13.095) and lower apo-CIII0a with macrovascular complications (β = −9.195, 95% CI −15.847 to −2.543). In conclusion, apo-CIII glycosylation was associated with the prevalence of micro- and macrovascular complications of diabetes. Moreover, a variant in the GALNT2-gene was associated with apo-CIII glycosylation and retinopathy, suggesting a causal effect. The findings facilitate a molecular understanding of the pathophysiology of diabetes complications and warrant consideration of apo-CIII glycosylation as a potential target in the prevention of diabetes complications.</p

Performance of prediction models for nephropathy in people with type 2 diabetes:systematic review and external validation study

OBJECTIVES To identify and assess the quality and accuracy of prognostic models for nephropathy and to validate these models in external cohorts of people with type 2 diabetes. DESIGN Systematic review and external validation. DATA SOURCES PubMed and Embase. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Studies describing the development of a model to predict the risk of nephropathy, applicable to people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS Screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were done in duplicate. Eligible models were externally validated in the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort (n=11 450) for the same outcomes for which they were developed. Risks of nephropathy were calculated and compared with observed risk over 2, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Model performance was assessed based on intercept adjusted calibration and discrimination (Harrell's C statistic). RESULTS 41 studies included in the systematic review reported 64 models, 46 of which were developed in a population with diabetes and 18 in the general population including diabetes as a predictor. The predicted outcomes included albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, chronic kidney disease (general population), and end stage renal disease. The reported apparent discrimination of the 46 models varied considerably across the different predicted outcomes, from 0.60 (95% confidence interval 0.56 to 0.64) to 0.99 (not available) for the models developed in a diabetes population and from 0.59 (not available) to 0.96 (0.95 to 0.97) for the models developed in the general population. Calibration was reported in 31 of the 41 studies, and the models were generally well calibrated. 21 of the 64 retrieved models were externally validated in the Hoorn DCS cohort for predicting risk of albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, and chronic kidney disease, with considerable variation in performance across prediction horizons and models. For all three outcomes, however, at least two models had C statistics >0.8, indicating excellent discrimination. In a secondary external validation in GoDARTS (Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland), models developed for diabetic kidney disease outperformed those for chronic kidney disease. Models were generally well calibrated across all three prediction horizons. CONCLUSIONS This study identified multiple prediction models to predict albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, chronic kidney disease, and end stage renal disease. In the external validation, discrimination and calibration for albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, and chronic kidney disease varied considerably across prediction horizons and models. For each outcome, however, specific models showed good discrimination and calibration across the three prediction horizons, with clinically accessible predictors, making them applicable in a clinical setting. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION PROSPERO CRD42020192831.Molecular Epidemiolog

An omics-based machine learning approach to predict diabetes progression:a RHAPSODY study

Aims/hypothesis: People with type 2 diabetes are heterogeneous in their disease trajectory, with some progressing more quickly to insulin initiation than others. Although classical biomarkers such as age, HbA 1c and diabetes duration are associated with glycaemic progression, it is unclear how well such variables predict insulin initiation or requirement and whether newly identified markers have added predictive value. Methods: In two prospective cohort studies as part of IMI-RHAPSODY, we investigated whether clinical variables and three types of molecular markers (metabolites, lipids, proteins) can predict time to insulin requirement using different machine learning approaches (lasso, ridge, GRridge, random forest). Clinical variables included age, sex, HbA 1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. Models were run with unpenalised clinical variables (i.e. always included in the model without weights) or penalised clinical variables, or without clinical variables. Model development was performed in one cohort and the model was applied in a second cohort. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel’s C statistic. Results: Of the 585 individuals from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort, 69 required insulin during follow-up (1.0–11.4 years); of the 571 individuals in the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS) cohort, 175 required insulin during follow-up (0.3–11.8 years). Overall, the clinical variables and proteins were selected in the different models most often, followed by the metabolites. The most frequently selected clinical variables were HbA 1c (18 of the 36 models, 50%), age (15 models, 41.2%) and C-peptide (15 models, 41.2%). Base models (age, sex, BMI, HbA 1c) including only clinical variables performed moderately in both the DCS discovery cohort (C statistic 0.71 [95% CI 0.64, 0.79]) and the GoDARTS replication cohort (C 0.71 [95% CI 0.69, 0.75]). A more extensive model including HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide performed better in both cohorts (DCS, C 0.74 [95% CI 0.67, 0.81]; GoDARTS, C 0.73 [95% CI 0.69, 0.77]). Two proteins, lactadherin and proto-oncogene tyrosine-protein kinase receptor, were most consistently selected and slightly improved model performance. Conclusions/interpretation: Using machine learning approaches, we show that insulin requirement risk can be modestly well predicted by predominantly clinical variables. Inclusion of molecular markers improves the prognostic performance beyond that of clinical variables by up to 5%. Such prognostic models could be useful for identifying people with diabetes at high risk of progressing quickly to treatment intensification. Data availability: Summary statistics of lipidomic, proteomic and metabolomic data are available from a Shiny dashboard at https://rhapdata-app.vital-it.ch. Graphical Abstract: (Figure presented.).</p

Genetic factors and insulin secretion: gene variants in the IGF genes

IGFs are important regulators of pancreatic beta-cell development, growth, and maintenance. Mutations in the IGF genes have been found to be associated with type 2 diabetes, myocardial infarction, birth weight, and obesity. These associations could result from changes in insulin secretion. We have analyzed glucose-stimulated insulin secretion using hyperglycemic clamps in carriers of a CA repeat in the IGF-I promoter and an ApaI polymorphism in the IGF-II gene. Normal and impaired glucose-tolerant subjects (n = 237) were independently recruited from three different populations in the Netherlands and Germany to allow independent replication of associations. Both first- and second-phase insulin secretion were not significantly different between the various IGF-I or IGF-II genotypes. Remarkably, noncarriers of the IGF-I CA repeat allele had both a reduced insulin sensitivity index (ISI) and disposition index (DI), suggesting an altered balance between insulin secretion and insulin action. Other diabetes-related parameters were not significantly different for both the IGF-I and IGF-II gene variant. We conclude that gene variants in the IGF-I and IGF-II genes are not associated with detectable variations in glucose-stimulated insulin secretion in these three independent populations. Further studies are needed to examine the exact contributions of the IGF-I CA repeat alleles to variations in ISI and DI

IgG N-glycans are associated with prevalent and incident complications of type 2 diabetes

Aims/Hypothesis:Inflammation is important in the development of type 2 diabetes complications. The N-glycosylation of IgG influences its role in inflammation. To date, the association of plasma IgG N-glycosylation with type 2 diabetes complications has not been extensively investigated. We hypothesised that N-glycosylation of IgG may be related to the development of complications of type 2 diabetes. Methods: In three independent type 2 diabetes cohorts, plasma IgG N-glycosylation was measured using ultra performance liquid chromatography (DiaGene n = 1815, GenodiabMar n = 640) and mass spectrometry (Hoorn Diabetes Care Study n = 1266). We investigated the associations of IgG N-glycosylation (fucosylation, galactosylation, sialylation and bisection) with incident and prevalent nephropathy, retinopathy and macrovascular disease using Cox- and logistic regression, followed by meta-analyses. The models were adjusted for age and sex and additionally for clinical risk factors. Results: IgG galactosylation was negatively associated with prevalent and incident nephropathy and macrovascular disease after adjustment for clinical risk factors. Sialylation was negatively associated with incident diabetic nephropathy after adjustment for clinical risk factors. For incident retinopathy, similar associations were found for galactosylation, adjusted for age and sex. Conclusions: We showed that IgG N-glycosylation, particularly galactosylation and to a lesser extent sialylation, is associated with a higher prevalence and future development of macro- and microvascular complications of diabetes. These findings indicate the predictive potential of IgG N-glycosylation in diabetes complications and should be analysed further in additional large cohorts to obtain the power to solidify these conclusions.</p

Multi-omics subgroups associated with glycaemic deterioration in type 2 diabetes:an IMI-RHAPSODY Study

Introduction: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) onset, progression and outcomes differ substantially between individuals. Multi-omics analyses may allow a deeper understanding of these differences and ultimately facilitate personalised treatments. Here, in an unsupervised “bottom-up” approach, we attempt to group T2D patients based solely on -omics data generated from plasma. Methods: Circulating plasma lipidomic and proteomic data from two independent clinical cohorts, Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) and Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS), were analysed using Similarity Network Fusion. The resulting patient network was analysed with Logistic and Cox regression modelling to explore relationships between plasma -omic profiles and clinical characteristics. Results: From a total of 1,134 subjects in the two cohorts, levels of 180 circulating plasma lipids and 1195 proteins were used to separate patients into two subgroups. These differed in terms of glycaemic deterioration (Hazard Ratio=0.56;0.73), insulin sensitivity and secretion (C-peptide, p=3.7e-11;2.5e-06, DCS and GoDARTS, respectively; Homeostatic model assessment 2 (HOMA2)-B; -IR; -S, p=0.0008;4.2e-11;1.1e-09, only in DCS). The main molecular signatures separating the two groups included triacylglycerols, sphingomyelin, testican-1 and interleukin 18 receptor. Conclusions: Using an unsupervised network-based fusion method on plasma lipidomics and proteomics data from two independent cohorts, we were able to identify two subgroups of T2D patients differing in terms of disease severity. The molecular signatures identified within these subgroups provide insights into disease mechanisms and possibly new prognostic markers for T2D.</p

Multi-omics subgroups associated with glycaemic deterioration in type 2 diabetes:an IMI-RHAPSODY Study

Introduction: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) onset, progression and outcomes differ substantially between individuals. Multi-omics analyses may allow a deeper understanding of these differences and ultimately facilitate personalised treatments. Here, in an unsupervised “bottom-up” approach, we attempt to group T2D patients based solely on -omics data generated from plasma. Methods: Circulating plasma lipidomic and proteomic data from two independent clinical cohorts, Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) and Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland (GoDARTS), were analysed using Similarity Network Fusion. The resulting patient network was analysed with Logistic and Cox regression modelling to explore relationships between plasma -omic profiles and clinical characteristics. Results: From a total of 1,134 subjects in the two cohorts, levels of 180 circulating plasma lipids and 1195 proteins were used to separate patients into two subgroups. These differed in terms of glycaemic deterioration (Hazard Ratio=0.56;0.73), insulin sensitivity and secretion (C-peptide, p=3.7e-11;2.5e-06, DCS and GoDARTS, respectively; Homeostatic model assessment 2 (HOMA2)-B; -IR; -S, p=0.0008;4.2e-11;1.1e-09, only in DCS). The main molecular signatures separating the two groups included triacylglycerols, sphingomyelin, testican-1 and interleukin 18 receptor. Conclusions: Using an unsupervised network-based fusion method on plasma lipidomics and proteomics data from two independent cohorts, we were able to identify two subgroups of T2D patients differing in terms of disease severity. The molecular signatures identified within these subgroups provide insights into disease mechanisms and possibly new prognostic markers for T2D.</p