56,307 research outputs found
Policy compass: FCM-based policy impact evaluation using public open data
This paper presents how Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique can be applied by a policy maker to support the policy impact evaluation using the example of Policy Compass, an EU research project. The practical usage example on interest rate policy shows the potential of FCMs as a policy impact modelling tool. Through the provision of a more intuitive and easier means of using open data based on FCM techniques, the Policy Compass project can play a critical role for both policy maker and lay public to evaluate the policy impact and prepare for future policy making
boosting in kernel regression
In this paper, we investigate the theoretical and empirical properties of
boosting with kernel regression estimates as weak learners. We show that
each step of boosting reduces the bias of the estimate by two orders of
magnitude, while it does not deteriorate the order of the variance. We
illustrate the theoretical findings by some simulated examples. Also, we
demonstrate that boosting is superior to the use of higher-order kernels,
which is a well-known method of reducing the bias of the kernel estimate.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/08-BEJ160 the Bernoulli
(http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical
Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm
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Generalised additive dependency inflated models including aggregated covariates
Let us assume that X, Y and U are observed and that the conditional mean of U given X and Y can be expressed via an additive dependency of X, λ(X)Y and X + Y for some unspecified function . This structured regression model can be transferred to a hazard model or a density model when applied on some appropriate grid, and has important forecasting applications via structured marker dependent hazards models or structured density models including age-period-cohort relationships. The structured regression model is also important when the severity of the dependent variable has a complicated dependency on waiting times X, Y and the total waiting time X+Y . In case the conditional mean of U approximates a density, the regression model can be used to analyse the age-period-cohort model, also when exposure data are not available. In case the conditional mean of U approximates a marker dependent hazard, the regression model introduces new relevant age-period-cohort time scale interdependencies in understanding longevity. A direct use of the regression relationship introduced in this paper is the estimation of the severity of outstanding liabilities in non-life insurance companies. The technical approach taken is to use B-splines to capture the underlying one-dimensional unspecified functions. It is shown via finite sample simulation studies and an application for forecasting future asbestos related deaths in the UK that the B-spline approach works well in practice. Special consideration has been given to ensure identifiability of all models considered
Pseudo-binary phase diagram for Zr-based in situ ß phase composites
The pseudo-binary (quasi-equilibrium) phase diagram for Zr-based bulk metallic glasses with crystalline in situ precipitates (ß phase) has been constructed from high-temperature phase information and chemical composition analysis. The phase evolution was detected in situ by high-energy synchrotron x-ray diffraction followed by Rietveld analysis of the data for volume fraction estimation. The phase diagram delineates phase fields and allows the control of phase fractions. Combined with related previous work by the authors, this diagram offers a unique opportunity to control both the morphology and volume of the dendritic ß phase precipitates to enhance the properties of the composites
Effect of sintering temperature under high pressure in the uperconductivity for MgB2
We report the effect of the sintering temperature on the superconductivity of
MgB2 pellets prepared under a high pressure of 3 GPa. The superconducting
properties of the non-heated MgB2 in this high pressure were poor. However, as
the sintering temperature increased, the superconducting properties were vastly
enhanced, which was shown by the narrow transition width for the resistivity
and the low-field magnetizations. This shows that heat treatment under high
pressure is essential to improve superconducting properties. These changes were
found to be closely related to changes in the surface morphology observed using
scanning electron microscopy.Comment: 3 Pages including 3 figure
Gravitating monopoles in SU(3) gauge theory
We consider the Einstein-Yang-Mills-Higgs equations for an SU(3) gauge group
in a spherically symmetric ansatz. Several properties of the gravitating
monopole solutions are obtained an compared with their SU(2) counterpart.Comment: 7 pages, Latex, 3 figure
Seed-specific overexpression of the pyruvate transporter BASS2 increases oil content in Arabidopsis seeds
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Scaling and memory in the return intervals of energy dissipation rate in three-dimensional fully developed turbulence
We study the statistical properties of return intervals between
successive energy dissipation rates above a certain threshold in
three-dimensional fully developed turbulence. We find that the distribution
function scales with the mean return interval as
except for , where the scaling function
has two power-law regimes. The return intervals are short-term and long-term
correlated and possess multifractal nature. The Hurst index of the return
intervals decays exponentially against , predicting that rare extreme
events with are also long-term correlated with the Hurst index
.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure
New heat treatment to prepare high quality polycrystalline and single crystal MgB2 in single process
We report here on a new heat treatment to prepare both dense polycrystalline
and single crystal MgB2 high quality samples in one single process. Resistivity
measurements for polycrystalline part of the sample gives a residual
resistivity ratio RRR=16.6 and a very low normal state resistivity rho(40K)=
0.28 microOhmcm. Both SEM and SQUID study on polycrystals reveal the high
quality, dense character and well coupling of grain boundaries. On the other
hand, the high quality single crystals have a unique shape that resembles the
hexagonal crystal structure. SQUID measurements reveals very weak flux pinning
character implying our single crystals to be very clean. In this study, we
conclude that heat treatment is playing a major rule on the characteristics of
both polycrystalline and single crystal MgB2. Samples are thoroughly
characterized by x-ray, resistivity, dc SQUID and SEM
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