Calibrating Alonso's General Theory of Movement: the Case of Inter-Provincial Migration Flows in Canada

First, it is shown that Alonso's general theory of movement relies on a standard doubly-constrained spatial interaction model which subsumes the usual gravity and entropy-derived formulations. Such a finding then suggests the use of a biproportional adjustment method (RAS method) to adequately estimate the systemic variables specified in the underlying model. This eventually leads to the development of a complete and precise methodology for calibrating the Alonso model. This methodology is illustrated with the help of an application to data on interprovincial migration in Canada

The Forces of Urbanization under Varying Natural Increase and Migration Rates

This paper is the third and last of a series seeking to shed some light on the question of whether a nation's urban population grows mostly by rural-urban migration or by natural increase. Again, the discussion evolves around an analytical study of the Keyfitz model of urbanization (Keyfitz, 1978) and the Rogers components-of-change model (Rogers, 1968) applied to a rural-urban system. Here, in contrast to the preceding papers in which rates of natural increase and migration were constant, the present paper allows these rates to vary. A larger part of the analysis is based on the Keyfitz model, shown earlier to be less meaningful than the alternative model but lending itself to an easier tractability when rates are allowed to vary. In particular, the Keyfitz model is used in an attempt to connect the variations of rural-urban (net) migration rates to economic changes through a simple scheme of wage differentials, later supplemented by the Todaro hypothesis

Intrinsic Rates and Stable Age-Specific Mortality (and Migration) Rates of Growth Matrix Operator in Single Region (Multiregion) Population Model

This paper attempts to characterize the schedule of demographic events embodied in the stable state of single-region and multiregion models of population projection. The focus is on the age-specific mortality (migration) rates that reach, at stability, limiting values slightly different from their initial ones. Formulas giving the stable age-specific death (and migration) rates are provided as well as an indication of the discrepancy between initial and stable rates. Also, a direct calculation method for the computation of intrinsic rates relating to each demographic event is developed. Finally, in the multiregion case, the stable migration rates are compared to those derived earlier by Stone

Choices in the Construction of Multiregional Life Tables

The methods of multiregional life table construction are explored through an investigation of a tree of choices with respect to approach, data, rates definition, probability definition, and stationary population or life-years-lived calculation. Two principal approaches are discussed: the movement approach and the transition approach, although a third label "hybrid approach" is used to characterize many of the developments in the field to date. Methods are applied to two population systems, that of the Netherlands, where moves data are available, and that of Great Britain, where the data on migration come in the transition form. The discussion of methods and the computer runs of the life table model lead to a clear set of recommended choices for the would-be life table constructor. The fairly simple and direct transition approach using migrant data measured by a five-year question is our preferred choice. The paper ends by speculating on how solutions to the unresolved problems of multiregional population analysis might be sought

Increment-Decrement Life Tables: A Comment

In a recent paper, R. Schoen poses the problem of constructing a set of k interrelated increment-decrement life tables but presents explicit solutions only for two-table and three-table models. Here, we derive the k-table analogue of the single-table formula (Schoen's Eq. 11) and illustrate its use in a problem area not included in Schoen's list of potential applications, namely, multiregional life table construction. In this particular application, increments are due to in-migration and decrements result from out-migration

Migration and Settlement: A Multiregional Comparative Study

In 1976, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis initiated a study of migration and population distribution patterns in its 17 member nations. In each country, the analysis was carried out by a national scholar using techniques of multiregional demography. This paper describes the organization of the study, discusses the data bases used, evaluates the main results obtained, and reviews some of the methodological research that has been generated by the study. Among the conclusions of the paper are recommendations for researchers wishing to carry out a multiregional demographic analysis

Stable Growth in the Nonlinear Components-of-Change Model of Interregional Population Growth and Distribution

In this paper, a general components-of-change model for a multi-regional demographic system is proposed. Characterized by independently derived retention probabilities, it subsumes two of the previously proposed models of population growth and distribution: the linear model studied by Rogers and the nonlinear model put forward by McGinnis and Henry. These two special cases are shown to be symmetrical variants of the proposed general model for a similar consideration of the independently derived retention probabilities. The long-term behavior of the nonlinear model, partially looked at by McGinnis and Henry, is further examined here and then contrasted with the long-term behavior of the linear model. Unfortunately, the existence of a long-term equilibrium could not be formally proved. However, the derivation of various properties concerning the stable state of the system made possible the development of a methodology permitting the a priori determination of all acceptable equilibrium distributions. The ZPG (zero population growth) and non-ZPG specifications are separately examined, because the non-ZPG case is not as straight forward an extension of the ZPG case as in the linear model. The long-term properties of the linear and nonlinear models are contrasted by applying these properties to the analysis of migration between the four U.S. Census regions over the period 1965-1970. Because of its peculiar properties, we conclude that the nonlinear model cannot be a useful substitute for the linear model in the study of the dynamics of multiregional population systems