Short-term Farm Level Adaptations of EU15 Agricultural Supply to Climate Change

Assessing climate change impact on agriculture is a complex task involving a wide range of economical and physical processes, leading to significant uncertainties. At European scale, climate change impacts on agricultural supply have been appraised to be of relatively less important driver by the end of century compared to other global drivers. However these diagnoses are incomplete due to a limited representation of both spatial heterogeneity in important determinants of agricultural supply (soil, management practices and producer typology) and fine scale processes such as farm scale autonomous adaptation. We propose a complementary approach based on a modeling framework including a spatially explicit representation of productivity and producer behavior with regard to heterogeneity in soil, climate, and producer socio-economic context to appraise climate change impacts including autonomous farm-scale adaptations of EU15 agricultural supply to climate change. Our results suggest that without accounting for autonomous adaptation European agricultural supply may have interesting resilience properties at an aggregated scale despite significant heterogeneity at smaller resolution. Accounting for autonomous adaptations result in significant yield gains, and may lead to (i) a significant increase in the relative profitability of crops compared to other land-covers, thus possibly increasing its agricultural land-use share over other land covers, and (ii) an increase in total European production which may have impacts on agricultural goods markets, thus highlighting the need for integrating fine scale processes such as autonomous adaptation.Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management,

QUANTIFYING THE HETEROGENEITY OF ABATEMENT COSTS UNDER CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION CHANGES: AN INTEGRATED MODELLING APPROACH

We present here preliminary results of an integrated modelling approach combining a crop model (STICS) and an economic model (AROPAj) of European agricultural supply. This modelling framework is designed to perform quantitative analysis, regarding climate change impacts on agriculture and more generally the interactions between soils, land use, agriculture and climate integrating physical and economical elements (data, process, models). It explicitly integrates an agricultural diversity dimension with regards to economic set of choices and soil climate spatial variability. First results are given in term of quantitative analysis combining optimal land allocation (economic optimality) and “dose-response” functions related to a large set of crops in Europe, at the farm group level, covering part of the European Union (EU15). They indicate that accounting for economical and spatial variability may impact both regional aggregated scales results.Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Water Use for Hydraulic Fracturing: A Texas Sized Problem?

The state of Texas could face a 2.7 trillion gallon shortfall of water by 2060. Hydraulic fracturing (HF) requires large amounts of water for each well. Tax incentives should be offered to companies that substitute brackish groundwater for fresh. However, HF technology is not the only or even the most significant contributor to the longstanding problem of water stress in Texas. Accurate and transparent data reporting on all water consumption (irrigation, municipal use, mining, and others) and policy changes to address inefficient water use practices in all sectors are needed. Without broad water regulation efforts the state will continue to suffer from overuse of its most precious resource—water

Avoiding the Mistakes of the Past: Rejecting Protectionism and Embracing the Global Economy

The “Great Recession” of 2008 was the greatest global financial crisis since the Great Depression. It led to the bankrupting of businesses, caused credit markets to dry up, imploded the housing market, and led to a near collapse of global trade. The plunge in trade that occurred between the second quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of 2009 was the steepest fall of world trade in recorded history. By rejecting protectionism, and by embracing the global economy through initiatives like NAFTA and the TPP, the U.S. can foster increased job growth and economic prosperity for its own citizens, and for individuals around the globe

Water Use in the Eagle Ford Shale: An Economic and Policy Analysis of Water Supply and Demand

The Eagle Ford Shale is a massive geologic formation located in South Texas spanning 30 Texas counties from Brazos County in the north east to Webb County in the southwest . With the advent of hydraulic fracturing (HF) and horizontal drilling, over 200 operators have been able to tap into previously inaccessible shale reserves to p roduce abundant amounts of oil and gas. The oil and gas proliferation in the Eagle Ford has seen exponential growth , and production is not anticipated to decline until 2025. In addition, a typical HF well in the Eagle Ford is estimated to consume about 13 acre - feet of water for a standard 5000 foot lateral . Approximately 90% of water for HF comes from fresh groundwater aquifers. This interaction of HF and water consumption is of primary importance from a poli tical and economic perspective. This s erves as t he focal point of our report. Using the tools of statistics, our research considered the groundwater consumption trends within the Eagle Ford counties using water consumption data of municipal, irrigation, mining (oil and gas) and other categories over a span of four years . This analysis showed that fresh groundwater is being consumed at about 2.5 times the groundwater recharge rates . Furthermore, irrigation is using more water than all other water - consuming categories combined. Thus, the water problem reaches well beyond the use of fresh grou ndwater for mining . With respect to likely requirements of water for HF, we posited this question: “ W ill technology bail us out?” Retrofitting learning curves to our data for water uses and the length of the well la teral , we find that after i nitial improvements in water us age, the technology appears to have stabilized. This, coupled with massi ve irrigation water consumption suggests that technology will not be a major source of water savings in the long run. Instead, we must look to better public policies . From a policy perspective, the status quo for groundwater u se is governed by the Rule of Capture and the oversight of groundwater conservation districts (GCDs) . T here exists a real conflict as large - scale water users are competing for a diminishing aquifer resource with no market signals of increasing scarcity. In addition, groundwater wells drilled in connection with oil and gas exploration are exempt from GCD per mitting requirements and receive a de facto “free pass” to water for HF. Likewise, limita tions imposed on irrigation users by the GCDs are rarely binding, so these users usually get a free pass as well. Our analysis leads us to three basic policy recommend ations . The first involves mandatory reporting of all groundwater uses by all classes of water use r s. Currently, government agencies and the public lack basic information on actual water consumption; t his policy seeks to relax that knowledge gap and bring transparency. Second , we propose incentivizing oil and gas companies to substitute brackish groundwater for fresh ground water. Our proposal calls for a severance tax reduction for tho se companies limiting fresh groundwater use for HF in the Eagle Ford. In addition to a temporary reduction in the severance tax, these companies c ould be recognized by the RRC and possibly the TCEQ for their environmental stewardship with a “ Green Star ” designation. Our t hird , most heterodox and long - term recommendation is to define ground water property rights on a per - acre ownership basis, which would attach to the surface owner’s real property. Under this system, the owner s of the water rights would be able to sell their water as they would any other resource, and the market would adjust the price of water to an economically efficient level. Most importantly, it would remove the incentive to use all you can today , leaving more water for the future at a lower future price.Commissioner Christi Craddick, Texas Railroad Commissio

Social representations of mask wearing in the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic

IntroductionAlthough one of the most prominent interventions against COVID-19, face masks seem poorly adopted by the general population. A growing body of literature has found that using face masks has social meaning. This qualitative study assessed the perceptions, representations and practices of mask wearing in the general population.MethodsA qualitative survey by short semi-structured walking interviews was carried out from April to December 2021 in 11 cities in France's Pays de la Loire region. Study locations were selected for their varied geographical, social, and economic characteristics, with urbanized and rural areas. Four domains linked to perceptions of masks and wearing them were explored: (i) evolution in mask wearing, (ii) decision-making methods for wearing and not wearing; (iii) incorporating the mask into way of life; (iv) projecting into the future.ResultsA total of 116 people were interviewed. Masks marked a shift from the ordinary world to the pandemic. Overall, interviewees considered masks an obstacle to breathing, communication, and social interactions, leading to establishing strategies circumventing the mask mandate. Poor attention was paid to their medical usefulness as an obligatory clothing accessory. Mask-wearing decisions were driven by social relations, common sense, and vulnerability. The greater the feeling of security (i.e., being with close relatives), the less it was worn or worn properly, with decreased attention to others and their health. Most participants did not remember learning to wear a mask. Some were convinced that mask-wearing could not be learned (experiential knowledge). Institutions (school and work) played a central role by facilitating incorporation of masks into daily life.ConclusionsThis study emphasizes the need to reinforce the individual medical values of face masks to prevent COVID-19. Ambitious education and training programmes should be planned to learn how and when to wear masks. Institutions (work and school) may be critical for this purpose

Protecting 30% of the planet for nature: costs, benefits and economic implications

A. Waldron, K. Nakamura, J. Sze, T. Vilela, A. Escobedo, P. Negret Torres, R. Button, K. Swinnerton, A. Toledo, P. Madgwick, N. Mukherjee were supported by National Geographic and the Resources Legacy Fund. V. Christensen was supported by NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-04901. M. Coll and J. Steenbeek were supported by EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 817578 (TRIATLAS). D. Leclere was supported by TradeHub UKRI CGRF project. R. Heneghan was supported by Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Acciones de Programacion Conjunta Internacional (PCIN-2017-115). M. di Marco was supported by MIUR Rita Levi Montalcini programme. A. Fernandez-Llamazares was supported by Academy of Finland (grant nr. 31176). S. Fujimori and T. Hawegawa were supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and the Sumitomo Foundation. V. Heikinheimo was supported by Kone Foundation, Social Media for Conservation project. K. Scherrer was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 682602. U. Rashid Sumaila acknowledges the OceanCanada Partnership, which funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). T. Toivonen was supported by Osk. Huttunen Foundation & Clare Hall college, Cambridge. W. Wu was supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. Z. Yuchen was supported by a Ministry of Education of Singapore Research Scholarship Block (RSB) Research Fellowship

Working paper analysing the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framewor

58 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables- The World Economic Forum now ranks biodiversity loss as a top-five risk to the global economy, and the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework proposes an expansion of conservation areas to 30% of the earth’s surface by 2030 (hereafter the “30% target”), using protected areas (PAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs). - Two immediate concerns are how much a 30% target might cost and whether it will cause economic losses to the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors. - Conservation areas also generate economic benefits (e.g. revenue from nature tourism and ecosystem services), making PAs/Nature an economic sector in their own right. - If some economic sectors benefit but others experience a loss, high-level policy makers need to know the net impact on the wider economy, as well as on individual sectors. [...]A. Waldron, K. Nakamura, J. Sze, T. Vilela, A. Escobedo, P. Negret Torres, R. Button, K. Swinnerton, A. Toledo, P. Madgwick, N. Mukherjee were supported by National Geographic and the Resources Legacy Fund. V. Christensen was supported by NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-04901. M. Coll and J. Steenbeek were supported by EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 817578 (TRIATLAS). D. Leclere was supported by TradeHub UKRI CGRF project. R. Heneghan was supported by Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Acciones de Programacion Conjunta Internacional (PCIN-2017-115). M. di Marco was supported by MIUR Rita Levi Montalcini programme. A. Fernandez-Llamazares was supported by Academy of Finland (grant nr. 311176). S. Fujimori and T. Hawegawa were supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and the Sumitomo Foundation. V. Heikinheimo was supported by Kone Foundation, Social Media for Conservation project. K. Scherrer was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 682602. U. Rashid Sumaila acknowledges the OceanCanada Partnership, which funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). T. Toivonen was supported by Osk. Huttunen Foundation & Clare Hall college, Cambridge. W. Wu was supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. Z. Yuchen was supported by a Ministry of Education of Singapore Research Scholarship Block (RSB) Research FellowshipPeer reviewe