Inquiries Into Real Estate and Macroeconomics: Zoning & Monetary Policy Regimes

In Chapter 1, I take advantage of uncertainty regarding future land use restrictions in order to empirically identify the value of the redevelopment option embedded in real estate prices for New York City (NYC) from 2003-2015. Using a two-stage estimation procedure, ergodic propensities to be zoned to either residential, commercial, or manufacturing land uses are interacted with a proxy for the propensity to be redeveloped. Results show that the interactions provide significantly greater explanatory power than using the intensity proxy alone. And that all option value terms are statistically significant. I estimate the average option value to redevelop in Manhattan \& Brooklyn for years 2003-2015 is 20\% and 8.5\% of total estimated property value in Manhattan and Brooklyn respectively. I also find evidence that manufacturing lots identified as residential by the model sell for a premium of 50\% per square foot. Chapter 2 considers commercial real estate (CRE), a major institutional asset class to which the banking sector has considerable exposure. Because CRE prices tend to be smoothed it is hard to infer their relationship with fundamentals. This is compounded by the presence of complicated underlying dynamics. For instance, inflation acts to increase discount rates but may also be associated with higher rental revenues. Thus it is difficult to sign the impact of inflation on CRE prices, especially given that the dynamics of macro fundamentals periodically undergo regime changes. Similar considerations apply to real economic growth and, by extension, interest rates. We estimate a model, consistent with rational expectations, where regime-dependent macro fundamentals are anticipated in prices. We find that real estate fundamentals and prices vary with macro fundamentals and are highly sensitive to potential regime changes. Correspondingly, information in real estate prices improves the identification macro regimes. Our model allows us to quantify sources of systematic risk in real estate and price mortgages (which are sensitive to the joint dynamics of interest rates and real estate prices). To the extent that regimes in macro fundamentals arise from shifts in monetary policy, our model may also be used for policy analysis.Doctor of Philosoph

The Effect of Proprioceptive Training on Directional Dynamic Stabilisation

Objectives: Significant loss of playing time and the impact of treatment costs due to lower limb injury in football demonstrates a need for improved protocols for injury risk reduction. The aim of the present study is to assess the effect of a proprioceptive training programme on the lower limb dynamic stability of elite footballers. Methods: Sixteen elite premier league footballers were randomly allocated by matched pair design to an 8-week proprioception training group (group A, n = 8) or non-training group (group B, n = 8), to determine the effect of this training over a 16-week period. Group A completed 8 weeks of bilateral proprioceptive training, 5 times per week for 10 minutes. Biodex Dynamic Stability (BSS) measures of Overall Stability Index (OSI), Anterior-Posterior (A-P), Medial-Lateral Stability (M-L) at levels 8-6-4-1 were taken for both groups at baseline, 4, 8 and 16 weeks. Main effects of time, level of stability and direction of stability were determined, with comparisons of effect made between the two groups. Results: The training group displayed significant differences for multi directional stability at week 8 (P ≤ 0.05). A-P stability within the training group displayed significant differences between baseline measures and 16 weeks (P > 0.05), with significant increases in scores displayed for M-L and A-P stability between weeks 8 and 16 (P ≤ 0.05), representing a detraining effect. No significant differences were detected at any time point for the non-training group (P > 0.05). Conclusions: Proprioceptive training over 8 weeks has a positive effect on all directions of stability. Greater declines in A-P stability were evident at 16 weeks when compared to M-L and OSI. Consideration must be given to the increased stability scores presented pre testing for A-P when compared to M-L. Findings of this work present implications for training design