Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Geographic profiling is a statistical tool originally developed in criminology to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime. Here, we use two data sets - one historical and one modern - to show how it can be used to locate the sources of infectious disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>First, we re-analyse data from a classic epidemiological study, the 1854 London cholera outbreak. Using 321 disease sites as input, we evaluate the locations of 13 neighbourhood water pumps. The Broad Street pump - the outbreak's source- ranks first, situated in the top 0.2% of the geoprofile. We extend our study with an analysis of reported malaria cases in Cairo, Egypt, using 139 disease case locations to rank 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, seven of which tested positive for the vector <it>Anopheles sergentii</it>. Geographic profiling ranks six of these seven sites in positions 1-6, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. In both analyses the method outperformed other measures of spatial central tendency.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We suggest that geographic profiling could form a useful component of integrated control strategies relating to a wide variety of infectious diseases, since evidence-based targeting of interventions is more efficient, environmentally friendly and cost-effective than untargeted intervention.</p

The effect of polyploidy and hybridization on the evolution of floral colour in Nicotiana (Solanaceae)

Background and Aims: We investigate whether changes in floral colour accompany polyploid and homoploid hybridisation, important processes in angiosperm evolution. Potentially, changes in floral colour can facilitate speciation through pollinator shifts. Methods: We examined spectral reflectance of corolla tissue from 60 Nicotiana (Solanaceae) accessions (41 taxa) based on spectral shape (corresponding to pigmentation) as well as bee and hummingbird colour perception to assess patterns of floral colour evolution. We compared polyploid and homoploid hybrid spectra to those of their progenitors to evaluate whether hybridisation has resulted in floral colour shifts. Key Results: Floral colour categories in Nicotiana seem to have arisen multiple times independently during the evolution of the genus. Polyploid and homoploid hybrids can display a floral colour: 1) intermediate between progenitors, 2) like one or other progenitor, or 3) a transgressive or divergent colour not present in either progenitor. Conclusions: Floral colour evolution in Nicotiana is weakly constrained by phylogeny, but colour shifts occur and are sometimes associated with allopolyploid or homoploid speciation. Transgressive floral colour in N. tabacum has arisen by inheritance of anthocyanin pigmentation from its paternal progenitor while having a plastid phenotype like its maternal progenitor. Potentially, floral colour evolution has been driven by, or resulted in, pollinator shifts

Stops making sense: translational trade-offs and stop codon reassignment

Background Efficient gene expression involves a trade-off between (i) premature termination of protein synthesis; and (ii) readthrough, where the ribosome fails to dissociate at the terminal stop. Sense codons that are similar in sequence to stop codons are more susceptible to nonsense mutation, and are also likely to be more susceptible to transcriptional or translational errors causing premature termination. We therefore expect this trade-off to be influenced by the number of stop codons in the genetic code. Although genetic codes are highly constrained, stop codon number appears to be their most volatile feature. Results In the human genome, codons readily mutable to stops are underrepresented in coding sequences. We construct a simple mathematical model based on the relative likelihoods of premature termination and readthrough. When readthrough occurs, the resultant protein has a tail of amino acid residues incorrectly added to the C-terminus. Our results depend strongly on the number of stop codons in the genetic code. When the code has more stop codons, premature termination is relatively more likely, particularly for longer genes. When the code has fewer stop codons, the length of the tail added by readthrough will, on average, be longer, and thus more deleterious. Comparative analysis of taxa with a range of stop codon numbers suggests that genomes whose code includes more stop codons have shorter coding sequences. Conclusions We suggest that the differing trade-offs presented by alternative genetic codes may result in differences in genome structure. More speculatively, multiple stop codons may mitigate readthrough, counteracting the disadvantage of a higher rate of nonsense mutation. This could help explain the puzzling overrepresentation of stop codons in the canonical genetic code and most variants

Stops making sense: translational trade-offs and stop codon reassignment BMC Evolutionary Biology Stops making sense: translational trade-offs and stop codon reassignment

Abstract Backgroun

Spatial Targeting for Bovine Tuberculosis Control: Can the Locations of Infected Cattle Be Used to Find Infected Badgers?

Bovine tuberculosis is a disease of historical importance to human health in the UK that remains a major animal health and economic issue. Control of the disease in cattle is complicated by the presence of a reservoir species, the Eurasian badger. In spite of uncertainty in the degree to which cattle disease results from transmission from badgers, and opposition from environmental groups, culling of badgers has been licenced in two large areas in England. Methods to limit culls to smaller areas that target badgers infected with TB whilst minimising the number of uninfected badgers culled is therefore of considerable interest. Here, we use historical data from a large-scale field trial of badger culling to assess two alternative hypothetical methods of targeting TB-infected badgers based on the distribution of cattle TB incidents: (i) a simple circular 'ring cull'; and (ii) geographic profiling, a novel technique for spatial targeting of infectious disease control that predicts the locations of sources of infection based on the distribution of linked cases. Our results showed that both methods required coverage of very large areas to ensure a substantial proportion of infected badgers were removed, and would result in many uninfected badgers being culled. Geographic profiling, which accounts for clustering of infections in badger and cattle populations, produced a small but non-significant increase in the proportion of setts with TB-infected compared to uninfected badgers included in a cull. It also provided no overall improvement at targeting setts with infected badgers compared to the ring cull. Cattle TB incidents in this study were therefore insufficiently clustered around TB-infected badger setts to design an efficient spatially targeted cull; and this analysis provided no evidence to support a move towards spatially targeted badger culling policies for bovine TB control

Geographic profiling applied to testing models of bumble-bee foraging

Geographical profiling (GP) was originally developed as a statistical tool to help police forces prioritize lists of suspects in investigations of serial crimes. GP uses the location of related crime sites to make inferences about where the offender is most likely to live, and has been extremely successful in criminology. Here, we show how GP is applicable to experimental studies of animal foraging, using the bumble-bee Bombus terrestris. GP techniques enable us to simplify complex patterns of spatial data down to a small number of parameters (2-3) for rigorous hypothesis testing. Combining computer model simulations and experimental observation of foraging bumble-bees, we demonstrate that GP can be used to discriminate between foraging patterns resulting from (i) different hypothetical foraging algorithms and (ii) different food item (flower) densities. We also demonstrate that combining experimental and simulated data can be used to elucidate animal foraging strategies: specifically that the foraging patterns of real bumble-bees can be reliably discriminated from three out of nine hypothetical foraging algorithms. We suggest that experimental systems, like foraging bees, could be used to test and refine GP model predictions, and that GP offers a useful technique to analyse spatial animal behaviour data in both the laboratory and field

Kaplan-Meier curves comparing sizes of search areas for setts housing TB-infected and uninfected badgers, by ring cull and geographic profile methods.

<p><b>A</b>: Numbers of TB-infected and uninfected setts; <b>B</b>: Proportions of TB-infected and uninfected setts.</p

Characteristics of included areas from proactive trial regions of first cull of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial.

<p>* Areas defined by bounding box of breakdown locations plus 5% buffer zone</p><p>^† Confirmed cattle herd breakdowns in one year prior to start of initial cull (excluding one outlying breakdown in area E3)</p><p>^‡ Infected sett, a sett at which at least one TB-infected badger was captured</p><p>Characteristics of included areas from proactive trial regions of first cull of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial.</p