Assessing the characteristics of extreme floods in Nepal

This study examines the characteristics (magnitudes, trends, and frequency of occurrences) of extreme floods in Nepal, a country that is at significant risk from floods. Daily discharge data from 1980 to 2015 of three gauging stations (Chisapani of Karnali Basin, Devghat of Narayani Basin, and Chatara of Koshi Basin) were used to assess the largest 1 % of flows, the annual top five high flows, and floods of different return periods (2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 100-year). In addition, temporal trend analysis of the flood peaks was carried out using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates. Results show that the magnitudes of the largest 1 % flows range from 6310 to 17 900, from 6967 to 12 100, and from 6080 to 9610 m3 s−1 at Chisapani, Devghat, and Chatara, respectively. The monsoon, especially from mid-June to early September, consistently witnesses over 90 % of 1 % extreme flows, with August registering more than 51 % of these occurrences. July and August combine for 81 % of the top five flow events, predominantly in August. Despite insignificant flow changes at a 95 % confidence level, extreme floods (2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, and 100-year return periods) are concentrated heavily in July and August, with August's second fortnight recording the most flood events. This assessment emphasizes July and August as critical months for extreme floods, aiding Nepalese authorities in planning dynamic resource allocation, disaster response, and effective flood management.</p

Responsible agricultural mechanization innovation for the sustainable development of Nepal’s hillside farming system

Agricultural mechanization in developing countries has taken at least two contested innovation pathways—the “incumbent trajectory” that promotes industrial agriculture, and an “alternative pathway” that supports small-scale mechanization for sustainable development of hillside farming systems. Although both pathways can potentially reduce human and animal drudgery, the body of literature that assesses the sustainability impacts of these mechanization pathways in the local ecological, socio-economic, cultural, and historical contexts of hillside farms is either nonexistent or under-theorized. This paper addresses this missing literature by examining the case of Nepal’s first Agricultural Mechanization Promotion Policy 2014 (AMPP) using a conceptual framework of what will be defined as “responsible innovation”. The historical context of this assessment involves the incumbent trajectory of mechanization in the country since the late 1960s that neglected smallholder farms located in the hills and mountains and biased mechanization policy for flat areas only. Findings from this study suggest that the AMPP addressed issues for smallholder production, including gender inequality, exclusion of smallholder farmers, and biophysical challenges associated with hillside farming systems, but it remains unclear whether and how the policy promotes small-scale agricultural mechanization for sustainable development of agriculture in the hills and mountains of Nepal

Flood vulnerability through the eyes of vulnerable people in mid-western Terai of Nepal

There are many studies on the flood risk mapping and analysis on various flood prone watersheds identifying vulnerability indicators and organizing them into different themes such as physical, social, economic, access to resources, communication, and gender dimensions. But there is no research on vulnerability of people to flood under climate change scenario from Nepal, where most of southern part experience flood each year in the monsoon season. This paper intends to assess the perceived flood vulnerability through the eyes of vulnerable people at the community level in two southern districts of Nepal. A total of two focus group discussions were conducted and 240 households were interviewed during field visit on Feb-May, 2012. Based on the perception of local peoples, 25 vulnerability indicators were identified and tested against a scale from 1 to 5 where 1 indicated 'very low' impact and 5 'severe' impacts. The 'high frequency of flood', bbank cutting/sand casting' and 'damage agricultural land' was found first three highly vulnerable indicators, whereas 'physical', 'social' and 'economic' parameters were found most vulnerable parameters. The findings of this study can be useful in vulnerability assessment and mapping of flood risk which are in turn crucial for flood management

Indigenous knowledge for climate change induced flood adaptation in Nepal

Floods are becoming increasingly common in Nepal resulting in a huge loss of life and damage to settlements, agriculture lands and infrastructures in various parts of the country. Most recent research findings suggest that climate change has accelerated the intensity and frequency of flood hazards in most parts of the country. Communities are however, making use of options that increase their preparedness for these flood hazards. This paper intends to assess the indigenous knowledge on flood forecasting and flood adaptation strategies at the community level in two districts of Western Terai of Nepal. Two focus group discussion and a total number of 240 households were interviewed during field visit. The collected information was scaled from least preferred- 1 to most preferred-5 based on their preferences. The research findings indicate that there are some very effective local flood forecasting practices such as identifying the position of clouds; monitoring the extent of rainfall in upper catchments; analyzing the mobility of ants; analyzing the magnitude of thunderstorms and wind blows; analyzing the magnitude of hotness; and hearing strange sounds from river/torrents. Synthesis and analysis of these indicators help communities prepare for potential flood events, through (1) preparation of search and rescue related materials; (2) creation of small drainage structures in each plot of land and storage of the valuable material; and (3) the psychologically preparation for floods. This paper argues that these indigenous flood forecasting and adaptation strategies could be particularly useful for migrants, who are in flood prone areas but are not familiar with those practices, in other parts of the country

Impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and water resources management of the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

Study region: The middle hilly region of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal. Study focus: Assessment is made of the hydrological regime of the basin under climate change. Results from two Regional Climate Models (PRECIS-HADCM3Q0 and PRECIS-ECHAM05), based on IPCC-SRES A1B scenario, were bias corrected against historical gauged data. Hydrological impact simulations were conducted using SWAT model. Design flood estimation was done after extreme value analysis based on annual flow maxima. New hydrological insights for the region: The study found that climate change does not pose major threat on average water availability. However, temporal flow variations are expected to increase in the future. The magnitude of projected flow for given return periods, however, strongly depends on the climate model run considered. The ECHAM05 results show higher flow changes than those estimated from the HADCM3 outputs. A relation was derived to estimate projected flood flow as a function of return period and flow estimated from historical series. Amidst the uncertainties, these predictions provide reasonable insight for re-consideration of design standards or design values of hydraulic structures under climate change

Application of machine learning to assess people's perception of household energy in the developing world: A case of Nepal

Research on social aspects of energy and those applying machine learning (ML) is limited compared to the ‘hard’ disciplines such as science and engineering. We aim to contribute to this niche through this multidisciplinary study integrating energy, social science and ML. Specifically, we aim: (i) to compare the applicability of different ML models in household (HH) energy; and (ii) to explain people's perception of HH energy using the most appropriate model. We carried out cross-sectional survey of 323 HHs in a developing country (Nepal) and extracted 14 predictor variables and one response variable. We tested the performance of seven ML models: K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Extra Trees Classifier (ETC), Random Forest (RF), Ridge Classifier (RC), Multinomial Regression–Logit (MR-L) and Probit (MR-P) in classifying people's responses. The models were evaluated against six metrics (confusion matrix, precision, f1 score, recall, balanced accuracy and overall accuracy). In this study, ETC outperformed all other models demonstrating a balanced accuracy of 0.79, 0.95 and 0.68 respectively for the Agree, Neutral and Disagree response categories. Results showed that, compared to conventional statistical models, data driven ML models are better in classifying people's perceptions. It was seen that the majority of the surveyed people from rural (68%) and semi-urban areas (67%) tend to resist energy changes due to economic constraints and lack of awareness. Interestingly, most (73%) of the urban residents are open to changes, but still resort to fuel-stacking because of distrust in the state. These grass-root level responses have strong policy implications

How will hydro-energy generation of the Nepalese Himalaya vary in the future? A climate change perspective

Despite being one of the proven clean-energy technologies, hydroelectricity is losing attention in global research. Hydroelectricity is extremely important for countries possessing the required water resources, already heavily reliant on it and those lacking the financial capacity to invest in other expensive energy technologies. This study assessed the possible impact of climate change (CC) on hydro-energy generation in the Nepalese Himalaya (possessing eight peaks out of 14 over 8000 m) with a tremendous hydropower potential (∼50,000 MW). A planned 1200 MW storage type Budhigandaki Hydroelectricity Project is taken as a case. We estimated the energy generation for the baseline as well as 10 CC scenarios considering RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 at monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal scales for the mid-century. Results show that energy generation is highly dependent on the reservoir operating rule. The average annual energy generation is expected to vary within −5 to +12% of the base case in the mid-century, with significant variations across the months. We also infer that designing hydro-projects based on ensembled climate values could lead to a “rosy” but less probable and risky picture of energy generation in the future. Therefore, assessment of a wide spectrum of plausible CC scenarios are recommended. Storage type projects with provision of flexible operating rules considering finer temporal resolution and allocation to competing users (in case of multipurpose projects) supported by appropriate policies are desirable for climate resiliency. Complementing the existing energy generation mix with other technologies in areas where hydroelectricity is expected to undergo adverse impacts of CC is warranted for attaining future energy security and environmental safeguarding. Possibility of additional energy due to CC is a strong motivation for this region to focus on hydroelectricity development in the future

Rethinking gender mainstreaming in agricultural innovation policy in Nepal: a critical gender analysis

Gender mainstreaming has been prioritised within the national agricultural policies of many countries, including Nepal. Yet gender mainstreaming at the national policy level does not always work to effect change when policies are implemented at the local scale. In less-developed nations such as Nepal, it is rare to find a critical analysis of the mainstreaming process and its successes or failures. This paper employs a critical gender analysis approach to examine the gender mainstreaming efforts in Nepal as they move from agricultural policies to practices. The research involved a structured review of 10 key national agricultural policy documents, 14 key informant interviews, and two focus group discussions with female and male smallholder farmers. Results suggest that gender mainstreaming in national agricultural policy and practice has largely failed. The creation of the Gender Equity and Social Inclusion (GESI) section within the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development is paradoxical to gender-responsive agricultural innovation because it has received limited human and financial resources with an expectation for women to manage this policy development in informal and largely unrecognized ways. At the regional and local levels, implementation of fundamental gender equity and social inclusion procedures – such as gender-responsive planning and budgeting – has become staff responsibility without requisite formal training, gender sensitization, and follow-up. In Nepal, women as smallholder farmers or agricultural labourers are recognized as a vulnerable group in need of social protection, but the welfare approach to gender mainstreaming has achieved little in terms of gender equity, social inclusion, and agricultural sustainability. This paper concludes that what is generally missing is a systemic transformation of gender roles and relations in agriculture, with policies that would support rural women's empowerment through the provision of economic and political rights and entitlement to productive resources