Bounded Stopping Times for a Class of Sequential Bayes Tests

Consider the problem of sequentially testing a null hypothesis vs an alternative hypothesis when the risk function is a linear combination of probability of error in the terminal decision and expected sample size (i.e., constant cost per observation.) Assume that the parameter space is the union of null and alternative, the parameter space is convex, the intersection of null and alternative is empty, and the common boundary of the closures of null and alternative is nonempty and compact. Assume further that observations are drawn from a p-dimensional exponential family with an open p-dimensional parameter space. Sufficient conditions for Bayes tests to have bounded stopping times are given

Properties of Bayes Sequential Tests

Consider the problem of sequentially testing composite, contiguous hypotheses where the risk function is a linear combination of the probability of error in the terminal decision and the expected sample size. Assume that the common boundary of the closures of the null and the alternative hypothesis is compact. Observations are independent and identically distributed. We study properties of Bayes tests. One property is the exponential boundedness of the stopping time. Another property is continuity of the risk functions. The continuity property is used to establish complete class theorems as opposed to the essentially complete class theorems in Brown, Cohen and Strawderman

Unintended Consequences From Nested State and Federal Regulations: The Case of the Pavley Greenhouse-gas-per-mile Limits

This paper reveals significant unintended consequences from recent 14-state efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through limits on greenhouse gases per mile from new cars. We show that while such efforts significantly reduce emissions from new cars sold in the adopting states, they cause substantial emissions increases from new cars sold in other (non-adopting) states and from used cars. The costs per avoided ton of emissions are approximately twice as high once such offsets are recognized. Such offsets (or “leakage”) reflect interactions between the state-level initiatives and the federal fuel-economy standard: the state-level efforts effectively loosen the national standard, giving automakers scope to profitably increase sales of high-emissions automobiles in non-adopting states. Although the state-level efforts spur invention of fuel- and emissions-saving technologies, interactions with the federal standard limit the nationwide emissions reductions from such advances. Our multi-period simulation model estimates that a recent state-federal agreement avoids what would have been 74% leakage in the first phase of the state-level effort, and that potential for 65% leakage remains for the second phase. This research confronts a general issue of policy significance—namely, problems from “nested” state and federal environmental regulations. Similar leakage difficulties would arise under several newly proposed state-level initiatives

Unintended Consequences from Nested State & Federal Regulations: The Case of the Pavley Greenhouse-Gas-per-Mile Limits

Fourteen U.S. states recently pledged to adopt limits on greenhouse gases (GHGs) per mile of light-duty automobiles. Previous analyses predicted this action would significantly reduce emissions from new cars in these states, but ignored possible offsetting emissions increases from policy-induced adjustments in new car markets in other (non-adopting) states and in the used car market. Such offsets (or “leakage”) reflect the fact that the state-level effort interacts with the national corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard: the state-level initiative effectively loosens the national standard and gives automakers scope to profitably increase sales of high-emissions automobiles in non-adopting states. In addition, although the state-level effort may well spur the invention of fuel- and emissions-saving technologies, interactions with the federal CAFE standard limit the nationwide emissions reductions from such advances. Using a multi-period numerical simulation model, we find that 70-80 percent of the emissions reductions from new cars in adopting states are offset by emissions leakage. This research examines a particular instance of a general issue of policy significance – namely, problems from “nested” federal and state environmental regulations. Such nesting implies that similar leakage difficulties are likely to arise under several newly proposed state-level initiatives.

Single-Molecule LATE-PCR Analysis of Human Mitochondrial Genomic Sequence Variations

It is thought that changes in mitochondrial DNA are associated with many degenerative diseases, including Alzheimer's and diabetes. Much of the evidence, however, depends on correlating disease states with changing levels of heteroplasmy within populations of mitochondrial genomes, rather than individual mitochondrial genomes. Thus these measurements are likely to either overestimate the extent of heteroplasmy due to technical artifacts, or underestimate the actual level of heteroplasmy because only the most abundant changes are observable. In contrast, Single Molecule (SM) LATE-PCR analysis achieves efficient amplification of single-stranded amplicons from single target molecules. The product molecules, in turn, can be accurately sequenced using a convenient Dilute-‘N’-Go protocol, as shown here. Using these novel technologies we have rigorously analyzed levels of mitochondrial genome heteroplasmy found in single hair shafts of healthy adult individuals. Two of the single molecule sequences (7% of the samples) were found to contain mutations. Most of the mtDNA sequence changes, however, were due to the presence of laboratory contaminants. Amplification and sequencing errors did not result in mis-identification of mutations. We conclude that SM-LATE-PCR in combination with Dilute-‘N’-Go Sequencing are convenient technologies for detecting infrequent mutations in mitochondrial genomes, provided great care is taken to control and document contamination. We plan to use these technologies in the future to look for age, drug, and disease related mitochondrial genome changes in model systems and clinical samples

Biology helps you to win a game

We present a game of interacting agents which mimics the complex dynamics found in many natural and social systems. These agents modify their strategies periodically, depending on their performances using genetic crossover mechanisms, inspired by biology. We study the performances of the agents under different conditions, and how they adapt themselves. In addition the dynamics of the game is investigated.Comment: 4 pages including 6 figures. Uses REVTeX4. Submitted for Conference Proceedings of the "Unconventional Applications of Statistical Physics", Kolkat

JTEC panel on display technologies in Japan

This report is one in a series of reports that describes research and development efforts in Japan in the area of display technologies. The following are included in this report: flat panel displays (technical findings, liquid crystal display development and production, large flat panel displays (FPD's), electroluminescent displays and plasma panels, infrastructure in Japan's FPD industry, market and projected sales, and new a-Si active matrix liquid crystal display (AMLCD) factory); materials for flat panel displays (liquid crystal materials, and light-emissive display materials); manufacturing and infrastructure of active matrix liquid crystal displays (manufacturing logistics and equipment); passive matrix liquid crystal displays (LCD basics, twisted nematics LCD's, supertwisted nematic LCD's, ferroelectric LCD's, and a comparison of passive matrix LCD technology); active matrix technology (basic active matrix technology, investment environment, amorphous silicon, polysilicon, and commercial products and prototypes); and projection displays (comparison of Japanese and U.S. display research, and technical evaluation of work)

Two-temperature LATE-PCR endpoint genotyping

BACKGROUND: In conventional PCR, total amplicon yield becomes independent of starting template number as amplification reaches plateau and varies significantly among replicate reactions. This paper describes a strategy for reconfiguring PCR so that the signal intensity of a single fluorescent detection probe after PCR thermal cycling reflects genomic composition. The resulting method corrects for product yield variations among replicate amplification reactions, permits resolution of homozygous and heterozygous genotypes based on endpoint fluorescence signal intensities, and readily identifies imbalanced allele ratios equivalent to those arising from gene/chromosomal duplications. Furthermore, the use of only a single colored probe for genotyping enhances the multiplex detection capacity of the assay. RESULTS: Two-Temperature LATE-PCR endpoint genotyping combines Linear-After-The-Exponential (LATE)-PCR (an advanced form of asymmetric PCR that efficiently generates single-stranded DNA) and mismatch-tolerant probes capable of detecting allele-specific targets at high temperature and total single-stranded amplicons at a lower temperature in the same reaction. The method is demonstrated here for genotyping single-nucleotide alleles of the human HEXA gene responsible for Tay-Sachs disease and for genotyping SNP alleles near the human p53 tumor suppressor gene. In each case, the final probe signals were normalized against total single-stranded DNA generated in the same reaction. Normalization reduces the coefficient of variation among replicates from 17.22% to as little as 2.78% and permits endpoint genotyping with >99.7% accuracy. These assays are robust because they are consistent over a wide range of input DNA concentrations and give the same results regardless of how many cycles of linear amplification have elapsed. The method is also sufficiently powerful to distinguish between samples with a 1:1 ratio of two alleles from samples comprised of 2:1 and 1:2 ratios of the same alleles. CONCLUSION: SNP genotyping via Two-Temperature LATE-PCR takes place in a homogeneous closed-tube format and uses a single hybridization probe per SNP site. These assays are convenient, rely on endpoint analysis, improve the options for construction of multiplex assays, and are suitable for SNP genotyping, mutation scanning, and detection of DNA duplication or deletions

When who and how matter: explaining the success of referendums in Europe

This article aims to identify the institutional factors that make a referendum successful. This comparative analysis seeks to explain the success of top-down referendums organized in Europe between 2001 and 2013. It argues and tests for the main effect of three institutional factors (popularity of the initiator, size of parliamentary majority, and political cues during referendum campaigns) and controls for the type of referendum and voter turnout. The analysis uses data collected from referendums and electoral databases, public opinion surveys, and newspaper articles. Results show that referendums proposed by a large parliamentary majority or with clear messages from political parties during campaign are likely to be successful