Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in Nigeria

This paper identifies fundamental issues which prevent the effective uptake of climate information services in Nigeria. We propose solutions which involve the extension of short-range (1 to 5 days) forecasts beyond that of medium-range (7 to 15 days) timescales through the operational use of current forecast data as well as improve collaboration and communication with forecast users. Using newly available data to provide seamless operational forecasts from short-term to sub-seasonal timescales, we examine evidence to determine if effective demand-led sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts can be co-produced. This evidence involves: itemization of forecast products delivered to stakeholders, with their development methodology; enumeration of inferences of forecast products and their influences on decisions taken by stakeholders; user-focused discussions of improvements on co-produced products; and the methods of evaluating the performance of the forecast products. We find that extending the production pipeline of short-range forecast timescales beyond the medium-range, such that the medium-range forecast timescales can be fed into existing tools for applying short-range forecasts, assisted in mitigating the risks of sub-seasonal climate variability on socio-economic activities in Nigeria. We also find that enhancing of collaboration and communication channels between the producers and the forecast product users helps to: enhance the development of user-tailored impact-based forecasts; increases users’ trusts in the forecasts; and, seamlessly improves forecast evaluations. In general, these measures lead to more smooth delivery and increase in uptake of climate information services in Nigeria

Institutionalising co-production of weather and climate services: learning from the African SWIFT and ForPAc projects

There is growing recognition of the multiple benefits of co-production for forecast producers, researchers and users in terms of increasing understanding of the skill, decision-relevance, uptake and use of forecasts. This policy brief identifies lessons learnt from two operational research projects, African SWIFT and ForPAc, on pathways for embedding co-production into operational weather and climate services as the new standard operational procedure. Experiences across these projects identifies the following potential pathways for institutionalising co-production practises within operational weather and climate services: • Changing mindsets and systems to enable co-production of enhanced forecasts and systematic approaches for their use. • Strengthening in-country institutional links between operational forecasting centres and academic institutions to develop sustainable and improved forecasting capacities to meet users’ evolving weather and climate information needs. • Ensuring continued access to raw forecast data from global forecasting centres to continue and further develop new and improved decision-relevant forecasts. • Formalising user engagement in co-production, through agreeing standard and continuity of representation and commitment to providing regular feedback. • Mainstreaming stakeholder engagement and co-production in meteorological training, forecasting operations and environmental research. • Working through existing channels, such as agricultural and livestock extension services, and harnessing social media and remote ways of working to develop sustainable forms of continuous user engagement. • Establishing monitoring systems to demonstrate the benefits of investing in forecasting capacities. • Incentivising collaboration between complementary initiatives. • Addressing the risks of operationalising new and improved weather and climate services in resource- constrained environments

Nowcasting for Africa: advances, potential and value

The high frequency of intense convective storms means there is a great demand to improve predictions of high-impact weather across Africa. The low skill of numerical weather prediction over Africa, even for short lead times highlights the need to deliver nowcasting based on satellite data. The Global Challenges Research Fund African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) project is working to improve the nowcasting of African convective systems and so the ability to provide timely warnings

Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa

Forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales have huge potential to aid preparedness and disaster risk reduction planning decisions in a variety of sectors. However, realising this potential depends on the provision of reliable information that can be appropriately applied in the decision-making context of users. This study describes the African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) forecasting testbed which brings together researchers, forecast producers and users from a range of African and UK institutions. The forecasting testbed is piloting the provision of real-time, bespoke S2S forecast products to decision-makers in Africa. Drawing on data from the kick-off workshop and initial case study examples, this study critically reflects on the co-production process. Specifically, having direct access to real-time data has allowed user-guided iterations to the spatial scale, timing, visualisation and communication of forecast products to make them more actionable for users. Some key lessons for effective co-production are emerging. First, it is critical to ensure there is sufficient resource to support co-production, especially in the early co-exploration of needs. Second, all the groups in the co-production process require capacity building to effectively work in new knowledge systems. Third, evaluation should be ongoing and combine meteorological verification with decision-makers feedback. Ensuring the sustainability of project-initiated services within the testbed hinges on integrating the knowledge-exchanges between individuals in the co-production process into shaping sustainable pathways for improved operational S2S forecasting within African institutions

Understanding the variability and predictability of seasonal climates over West and Southern Africa using climate models

Includes bibliographical referencesA good understanding of seasonal climate and the limit to which it can be predicted is crucial in addressing various socio-economic challenges in Africa. However, how to improve the capability of the dynamical models of the climate system in reproducing the regional seasonal climate variability and in replicating the role of various atmospheric circulation anomalies on the regional variability remains a major challenge. Thus far, understanding of seasonal climate over these regions, as well as the ability of climate models to predict them, has focused on the agreement of simulations of dynamical models of the climate system, rather than considering outliers as potentially vital contributors to understanding and predictability. This thesis uses discrepancy in a large ensemble of climate simulations as a tool to investigate variability in dominant seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns (i.e. classes) over West and Southern Africa, to examine the capability of climate models in reproducing the variability, and to study the predictability of the seasonal climates over South Africa. The dominant classes of variability (of rainfall and maximum temperature fields) in both regions are examined based on the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) classifications. The sequences in which each class occurs cannot be linked simply to a single common index of global scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, implying that the chaotic regional atmospheric circulations that modulate the global scale modes of variability are indispensable. The climate model examined adequately reproduces the dominant classes of seasonal climate over West and Southern Africa

The Role of Legislation in Ensuring Sustainable Energy Development in Nigeria: Lessons from Kenya

Electricity is the most widely used form of energy. Access to electricity is generally recognised as key to achieving sustainable human and economic development. Nigeria has a perennial problem of inadequate electricity supply that now threatens the country’s energy security. A reliance on fossil fuel, the main source of grid electricity in Nigeria, has not led to sufficient electricity generation that can meet the demand for electricity, and its future capacity to do so is doubtful. Nigeria’s energy policy supports the diversification of electricity generation to exploit Nigeria’s abundant renewable energy resources and increase the share of electricity generated from renewables. However, this policy has not translated to additional electricity generation. This is because legislation in Nigeria does not contain provisions to drive the development of renewable energy resources that is required for sustainable electricity generation. In view of the country’s population growth rate, which in turn means more energy demand, Nigeria needs to carefully and vigorously pursue its renewable electricity objectives through a law or laws dedicated to encouraging the generation of electricity from renewables. This thesis examines the role legislation can play in the realisation of sustainable energy objectives in Nigeria. It will do this by undertaking a comparative study of law and electricity generation in Nigeria and Kenya, the latter of which has been held up as a model for renewable energy development by organisations such as the World Bank. This thesis will derive lessons from the development of renewable electricity in Kenya that may assist Nigeria in the achievement of its aspirations to provide electricity on a sustainable basis.Thesis (MPhil) -- University of Adelaide, Adelaide Law School, 202

Social Media Addiction and Formal Writing Skills among Mass Communication Students in Osogbo, Southwestern Nigeria

This study was carried out on the influence of social media chatting on formal writing habit among university undergraduates. Literature has reported bot adverse and no effect of social media on students' writing habit. Findings vary from time to time and from place to place. This current study looks at a direction that had rarely been looked at by earlier researchers- the influence of social media on formal writing skills of Mass Communication students in a private university in south-western Nigeria. Using a multi-level sampling technique involving purposive, stratification and total population sampling, 143 answer scripts of a first-year writing course in the Department of Mass Communication were examined through content analysis. The study found that in the case of Mass Communication students, social media do not have such overwhelming adverse influence as associated with it on the writing competence of undergraduate students. Among all types of social media chat language, graphones rank highest in use among the study population. Many other factors, including writing training, interplay with social media to cause the poor writing competence among university undergraduates.  It was then recommended that further research is conducted in this area of enquiry to unveil specific areas yet untrodden. Colleges and tertiary institutions should institute courses that can improve the writing skills and the ability of the students

Evaluation of the ECMWF Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts during the Peak of West Africa Monsoon in Nigeria

Motivated by the increasing needs for reliable seasonal climate forecasts for enhanced living and protection of property, this study evaluates the predictive skill of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast's Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (ECMWF-S2S) precipitation forecasts during the peak of West Africa Monsoon in Nigeria. It investigates the ability of the ECMWF-S2S model to reproduce the atmospheric dynamics that influence the monsoon variability in West-Africa. Rain gauge values of 46 meteorological stations and 10-member ensemble of ECMWF-S2S forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) version of the ECMWF were subjected to quantitative statistical analyses. Results show that the model has weak capability in predicting wind strength at 700 mb level to depict the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). However, irrespective of the ENSO phases, ECMWF-S2S model is capable of adequately and reliably predicting the latitudinal positions of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD), mean sea level pressure component of the thermal lows and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. On inter-annual time-scales, results also show that ECMWF-S2S model performs best over the Savannah in forecasting of rainfall anomalies (synchronization = 75%) and over the Sahel in the prediction of rainfall accumulation. The model may however not be able to forecast extreme precipitation reliably because the disagreement between the model's ensemble members increases as higher rainfall accumulation values are attained. The implication here is that the reproducibility of the atmospheric dynamic by the model is a better measure of rainfall prediction than the actual quantitative rainfall forecasts especially in areas south of latitude 10°N. The study therefore suggests considering some climate driving mechanisms as predictability sources for the ECMWF-S2S model to enable the atmospheric dynamics to be better represented in the model